FanPost

Just a thought on luck, zone starts, and Corsi

So...I can understand that zone starts at a team level are an effect, not a cause, of Corsi, as it is with individual players. However... Say team X has poor shooting luck. Instead of certain shots going in, wouldn't it be reasonable to expect that those shots are stopped, resulting in another offensive zone draw, and perhaps an inflated Corsi as a result? Now say Team Y has great shooting luck. Then shots upon which we might normally expect a save, goalie freeze, and offensive zone draw, end up in the net with a neutral zone draw. Doesn't that result in perhaps a deflated Corsi than one might expect from the averages? I don't think it unreasonable to guess that a Team X (like this year's Devils, maybe) are slightly worse than Fenwick% has them, while a Team Y (like last year's Capitals) may be slightly undercredited by Fenwick%. I'm not sure how much of an effect shooting luck would have on Corsi (if at all), but I guess that might be just one more factor to consider.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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