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Fenwick Timelines for every NHL Game, 2007-08 to present...


I liked Ben's idea from Saturday so much, I bought the company. If you go to any team page, say 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche, you can now click on any game to see Ben's chart for that game. For example, Colorado's first game of the season against San Jose, 2009-10 Game 20003:

Star-divide

Shots_2009_20003_medium

via behindthenet.ca

What you see here is Colorado and San Jose being neck-and-neck in shots for the first two periods, while the Avs drop five goals to San Jose's two. Then San Jose goes on a rampage while Colorado sits back and puts up zero shots over the last 14 or so minutes while protecting the lead.

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Dynamite idea, gents

Cross check and all call.

by bigonetimer on Dec 26, 2011 10:34 AM EST reply actions  

Christmas was yesterday..so this must be for the 8 days of Hanukkah!

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by George E. Ays on Dec 26, 2011 11:12 AM EST reply actions  

Christmas is technically a season. Also, belated gifts are also a thing.

Gabe/Ben – my gift to you, a warning that Johnny Oduya isn’t all that good without Paul Martin next to him. Wait, you already know that? Uh…thanks?

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by John Fischer on Dec 26, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions  

This is amazing. And I didn’t get you guys anything!

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by Derek Zona on Dec 26, 2011 11:16 AM EST reply actions  

These are total shot counts, btw. I still haven’t decided if I want actual Fenwick on the chart.

by Hawerchuk on Dec 26, 2011 11:26 AM EST up reply actions  

well

my vote is for you to add them. I am a fan of more info being a good thing.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Dec 27, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions  

Great!

Looks really good!

by SnarkSD on Dec 26, 2011 6:49 PM EST via mobile reply actions  

Merry Christmas!

"We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question that divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance of being correct."
- Niels Bohr

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by Frag on Dec 26, 2011 6:52 PM EST reply actions  

Shot and Goal Differential is another way to show this info

Fenwick or Corsi will tell a similar story.
That San Jose was expected to win but the correlation broke down.
I didn’t watch the game but I’d guess the goalie stole the game?

by jeffgm on Dec 27, 2011 10:44 AM EST reply actions  

Also Fenwick Tied if you use that measure for this game is such a small part of the game.
I take it that typically Fenwick Tied would represent a larger part of the game.

by jeffgm on Dec 27, 2011 10:46 AM EST up reply actions  

yeah

fenwick tied is really only useful in a big picture sense. too little data gm to gm.

"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."

- Sir Winston Churchill

I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.

by Steve Burtch on Dec 27, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions  

It occurs to me if we model GF/GA vs Fenwick Tied Road for the season, then the linear regression equation could used to calculate the expected GF/GA (or game score) of the game using the actual Fenwick of this game. The difference in the actual GF/GA vs the Fenwick expected GF/GA is the “chance” component.

I did something similar with Fenwick vs P% (winning) here to show how chance impacts P% (percentage points)

by jeffgm on Dec 27, 2011 12:11 PM EST up reply actions  

This assumes that Colorado was “lucky” when they were sitting back on the lead and did not have some sort of special defensive “skill” (trap) that negates the expected linear regression when a team has a lead. This is the danger with extrapolating the relationship of Fenwick Road Tied to parts of the game when the score is not tied..

by jeffgm on Dec 27, 2011 12:17 PM EST up reply actions  

We focus group-tested our plots

by Hawerchuk on Dec 27, 2011 1:03 PM EST up reply actions  

I lovehate this. Love because it’s clearly awesome. Hate because now there’s no reason to do this myself for Pensburgh. Oh well. :)

PensBurgh
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by JustinM on Dec 27, 2011 12:46 PM EST reply actions  

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