Fenwick Timelines for every NHL Game, 2007-08 to present...
by Hawerchuk on Dec 26, 2011 7:00 AM EST
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I liked Ben's idea from Saturday so much, I bought the company. If you go to any team page, say 2009-10 Colorado Avalanche, you can now click on any game to see Ben's chart for that game. For example, Colorado's first game of the season against San Jose, 2009-10 Game 20003:
via behindthenet.ca
What you see here is Colorado and San Jose being neck-and-neck in shots for the first two periods, while the Avs drop five goals to San Jose's two. Then San Jose goes on a rampage while Colorado sits back and puts up zero shots over the last 14 or so minutes while protecting the lead.
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Christmas was yesterday..so this must be for the 8 days of Hanukkah!
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by John Fischer on Dec 26, 2011 1:00 PM EST up reply actions
This is amazing. And I didn’t get you guys anything!
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well
my vote is for you to add them. I am a fan of more info being a good thing.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Dec 27, 2011 11:21 AM EST up reply actions
Merry Christmas!
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Shot and Goal Differential is another way to show this info
Fenwick or Corsi will tell a similar story.
That San Jose was expected to win but the correlation broke down.
I didn’t watch the game but I’d guess the goalie stole the game?
Also Fenwick Tied if you use that measure for this game is such a small part of the game.
I take it that typically Fenwick Tied would represent a larger part of the game.
yeah
fenwick tied is really only useful in a big picture sense. too little data gm to gm.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Dec 27, 2011 11:22 AM EST up reply actions
It occurs to me if we model GF/GA vs Fenwick Tied Road for the season, then the linear regression equation could used to calculate the expected GF/GA (or game score) of the game using the actual Fenwick of this game. The difference in the actual GF/GA vs the Fenwick expected GF/GA is the “chance” component.
I did something similar with Fenwick vs P% (winning) here to show how chance impacts P% (percentage points)
This assumes that Colorado was “lucky” when they were sitting back on the lead and did not have some sort of special defensive “skill” (trap) that negates the expected linear regression when a team has a lead. This is the danger with extrapolating the relationship of Fenwick Road Tied to parts of the game when the score is not tied..
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