Puck Battles: The Pekka Rinne Deal is a Rare David Poile Mistake
by SO_RyanP on Nov 7, 2011 12:02 PM EST
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Puck Battles is a semi-regular column exploring a few key issues around the NHL. Hopefully you don't agree with the opinion expressed by the author, that way we get to argue more. The only thing that can't be argued is Anze Kopitar's place as one of the best two-way forwards in the game. He's the "do a barrel roll" of hockey.
There was only one thing I could possibly talk about this week. The Nashville Predators decided to ink their star goaltender, Pekka Rinne, to a 7-year, $49 million deal before he became an unrestricted free agent this summer.
Rinne may be one of the best 5 goalies in the league and he's now about to get paid like it. However, this contract is a gigantic mistake for a Predators team that has built their reputation on finding value in hidden talent and not making big contract mistakes. The market for goaltenders is set more by the deals for Tomas Vokoun, Jimmy Howard and Antii Niemi than by the ludicrous deal the Flyers signed Ilya Bryzgalov to this summer. Rinne will have the highest cap hit of any net jockey in the league next season, but is any goalie really worth it?
Rinne has three seasons as the Predators starter under his belt, and has managed to average an Even-Strength Save % (EVSV%) of 0.928. By comparison, here are several other top goalies in the NHL by EVSV% over the same time period, along with their cap hit.
| Goalie | EVSV% | Cap Hit |
| Tim Thomas | 0.933 | $5.0m |
| Roberto Luongo | 0.931 | $5.3m |
| Tomas Vokoun | 0.930 | $1.5m |
| Cam Ward | 0.926 | $6.3m |
| Ryan Miller | 0.926 | $6.3m |
| Henrik Lundqvist | 0.926 | $6.9m |
| Ilya Bryzgalov | 0.926 | $5.7m |
Clearly Rinne belongs near the top of the heap talent-wise, but it's hard to justify the money given to him on a yearly basis. Even when compared to the recent deal of Bryzgalov, the Predators paid an extra $1.3m per year for 0.002 margin in save percentage versus Ilya the Russian poet. Rinne's deal is only $0.2m less than Bryzgalov and Vokoun combined.
In any contract, there is risk to both the player and the team. In this deal, the Predators have assumed all the risk. They have given up a giant cap hit AND committed to it long term. If it was going to cost them $7m to keep Rinne off the market, they could have mitigated the risk by only offering a 2 year deal, or at least looked for a discount if Rinne wanted the job security for such a long period. With the deal signed as is, the best the Predators can hope for is that Rinne lives up to the value of the deal, but there's almost no way he can surpass it. Rinne is 29 years old and could realistically play out all 7 years of the deal, but if his performance drops at any point, the Preds are on the hook for a cap hit that is incredibly difficult to justify.
In addition, Philip Myrland of Hockey Prospectus believes Nashville's home scorer may help pump up goalie statsfor players like Rinne and other Preds goalies.
Compounding the problem is that the Predators "bought high" in a sense with Rinne's contract. They signed him to a long-term deal at a time when his value was at or near its peak.
I can't shake the feeling that David Poile went into panic mode on this deal, somehow including non-measurable value like showing the fans they are serious about winning and enticing Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to stick around. He's going to regret it when he's cap-strapped on a team that already operates under it's own artificial cap.
The Best Article I Read This Week
The team at the Driving Play blog has done it again. The analytical powerhouse, JaredL,created a model showing the split between skill and luck of shooting percentage, based on the number of games observed. The bad news for Leafs fans is that they're riding 80-90% luck at the moment for guys like Kessel and Lupul. Don't expect these unreal shooting percentages to be sustained, but I think we already knew that.
Best Idea that Hasn't Happened Yet
Why hasn't a team like Boston pumping up goaltender value and trading them for a boatload of picks or prospects? We know that goalie talent is tightly clustered, so why not exploit a market inefficiency by getting others to pay top price after a crease monger has a stellar season? The Montreal Canadiens tried this with Halak, but didn't really get enough in return to say the "exploited" the market.
Western Canadian Thought of the Week
The guys over at Copper n' Blue have had a lot of debate whether Linus Omark should be in the Oilers lineup, in two posts here and here. Omark is good enough to be in the NHL. His cap hit is under $1m per year, and he's a RFA after this season. For the Oilers to make a decent estimation of what type of talent they've got on hand, they need to see him play at the NHL level. At 24 years old, they need to find out if he can make the club or not.
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David Poile Mistake
What about the Mike Fisher deal? It seems Poile has been slipping. If he didn’t waste cap space with bad deals like that he wouldn’t have to let otherwise affordable players go in salary dumps.
I totally agree with everything else you said about the Rinne deal. If he wouldn’t stay for a more reasonable price, trade him at peak value for a windfall of goods, and let Anders the Giant play.
Really, Mike Fisher was a bad deal? He immediately made a difference when put back into the lineup. I don’t hear any Preds fans complaining about the Fisher deal now.
That’s something on which Preds fans and I disagree.
A first-round pick for a guy whose $4 million contract prevented them from doing anything about the mass exodus of supporting players in the off-season – not my idea of a great deal.
yeah, other things being equal, i’d much rather have joel ward and a 1st than mike fisher.
by Passive Voice on Nov 7, 2011 4:45 PM EST up reply actions
Prevented them how exactly? They weren’t that hamstrung. Dumont was bought out, Sully has a couple years left maybe. Ward got paid $4 million, and Fisher > Ward (look at his regular season stats). Goc and maybe O’Brien are the only ones I would have liked to retain.
The 1st was a low 1st-rounder, in a weaker draft as well.
ok
They could keep Shane O’Brien, Marcel Goc (or similar players), keep their first-rounder, and still have $1.2 million left over.
Fisher just isn’t worth it, in my opinion.
Really
Do you ever watch the Predators play. When Poile made the deal last Febuary the Preds were around the 8th through 10th place. Fisher made an instant impact and boosted a struggling offensive team up to 5th by season end. He was also a key part in the Preds winning their first ever series. This the Preds started off 3-3-1 since his return they have gone 5-1-1. I completely disagree with both the Rinne deal and the Fisher trade. Regardless of what is said a top goaltender is not easy to find just ask Philly. This guy has been developed, built to play Predators style hockey and knows what he must do to keep the team in games. The Preds have and paid the best guy for them for the long term. Now they need to sign Weber/Suter or one of the two and a top 3 forward.
Nashville scored 74 goals in 27 games with Fisher, 2.7 goals per game. Without Fisher they had 2.53 goals per game. Assuming they would have scored at the same rate pre-Fisher post-deadline had they not made that trade, they would have gotten…68 goals over that stretch. I am skeptical Fisher was worth 6 goals, considering how often Nashville scored 4 and got shut out over that stretch.
Regardless, the playoff series win I think is pretty important to Nashville.
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I believe in next year.
by red army line on Nov 8, 2011 10:45 AM EST up reply actions
Speaking of barrel rolls
Did you see Byfuglien barrel roll into the scrum last game? There was a mad scramble in front of the net, with literally 7 or 8 guys coming together, and here comes Bustin from the point, making a very slight pass at the puck then just tucking and rolling into the pile.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 12:21 PM EST reply actions
I agree with you and Philip
I had looked at this awhile ago, but Nashville has been firmly entrenched in the top 10% of over-counting in the league for the last decade. So when Phil put together the home/away disparity I wasn’t surprised. But on your principles, too, I agree, because there is no reason in today’s NHL that you should be throwing down so much for so little a difference.
But, to play devil’s advocate…I’m also of the mind that great goaltending (like top 5 performance) is unreliable, so don’t pay for it, but you should actively seek out top 15 goaltending. In my mind, over the long run a goaltender will rarely set you ahead of the pack, but a bad goaltender could certainly set you behind. So the focus should be on not having below-average goaltending. We think we have enough data to suggest that Pekka Rinne is not below average, nor should be; what is the potential added value of not having to engage the free agent market for the next 7 years? In other words, will the overpay here cover the overpays typical of the free agent market (Vokoun was a pretty extraordinary exception)? Let’s keep in mind that the players could conceivably get some negotiating power back with Donald Fehr.
We could even look down the road a bit at other contracts ending soon; are their other potential bargains available? Carey Price will almost surely be re-signed at a premium; possibly Jimmy Howard, too. Here comes the counter to my counter-argument, though, because look at all those contracts expiring in two years: Tuukka Rask, Ondrej Pavelec, Michal Neuvirth, Jonathan Bernier, Sergei Bobrovsky, Jacob Markstrom…Now, not all of these guys will be available, but a few will be, and with all those re-signings and a bunch of monster goaltender contracts already in hand, you’re talking about a saturated market.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 12:46 PM EST reply actions
Want to really twist up your mind?
Could the Preds have traded Rinne for a bunch of assets and then traded a few assets for Rask to come out of the deal with Rask and a prospect or Rask and a pick? That way they turn Rinne into Rask, a prospect and cap room.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Rask might be a tough pull
Because I don’t even think the Bruins think Thomas will last forever. Now Sergei Bobrovsky or Jonathan Bernier, on the other hand…
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 4:20 PM EST up reply actions
I think the one part that I’ll nitpick with on your post is the following statement:
We think we have enough data to suggest that Pekka Rinne is not below average, nor should be; what is the potential added value of not having to engage the free agent market for the next 7 years?
We’re not even certain that they won’t have to engage the free agent market for the next 7 years. Rinne isn’t all that young, having just turned 29. Nevermind the unpredictability of goalies in general, we’re also dealing with a contract that will almost entirely take place in his 30s.
In general, goalies peak pretty late
And there’s really nothing about his career usage that suggests he was overworked early in his career (came over from Europe when he was 23, 3 AHL seasons, NHL starter since age 26, never played more than 65 regular season games in a year). So I’m inclined to say that, probability-wise, he shouldn’t be an exceptional case in either the positive or negative sense when it comes to career curve. And playing well up to his mid-30s shouldn’t be a big issue, either.
To counter nitpick, I said “potential added value”, since we’re working with probabilities. So I don’t know that their goaltending situation will be fine for the next 7 years, but provided Rinne plays all seven seasons (the presumption Poile & Co. would be making), what would be the value of not having to engage the goaltending free agent market.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 4:18 PM EST up reply actions
And to further the nitpick … tossing back an article from this site: http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2010/4/28/1448993/goaltender-save-percentage-by-age
"It's hardly overwhelming evidence"
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 11:01 PM EST up reply actions
Wow, thanks for the kind words about my article.
There was only one thing I could possibly talk about this week.
Yeah, I think this will get a ton of focus for some time. In addition to the “wow, what a terrible deal” first response there are a lot of interesting issues with how to build a team and the role of luck and skill that this touches on.
In any contract, there is risk to both the player and the team. In this deal, the Predators have assumed all the risk.
This, to me, is the key. I guess it’s possible for Rinne to go on some kind of tear and put up something like 4-5 elite seasons and 2-3 that are decent. The problem is even then that would make this deal mediocre among goalie deals which most of us suspect are too high as a group. In value terms there is no upside, no chance they turn out to have underpaid him. With a lot of bad contracts there’s at least that if the player turns out better than expected and has better than average fortune with injuries.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
First off – your articles are fantastic, I wouldn’t link to them otherwise.
Second – you hit it on the head. There is absolutely no upside for the Preds. I love Rinne as a player and think he’s definitely a Top 5 goalie in the league, but the best Nashville can hope for is that he lives up to the deal. There is absolutely no upside from a cap value standpoint.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
I hate to state the obvious
but “living up to the deal” means he is contending for the Vezina Trophy every year. Will it happen? Dunno. But “if he lives up to that deal” he is going to take this team far.
Also, the length of the contract means the Preds are tied to him for long term, for better or for worse… but it also gets cheaper every year. This deal starts next year, and might as well have been for $6.5 mil this year. The cap goes up every year, the floor goes up every year, salaries go up every year, revenue goes up every year. B year 7 his salary will be the equivalent to $3.5-4.5 mil a year.
Considering that Luongo is making $6.7 mil a year for the next 7 years, this is not a bad deal.
PS. “Cap hit” means nothing if you don’t spend to the cap…
His salary is $7m per year as well. Same thing in this case – but you’re right about that.
I agree his deal gets “cheaper” based on escalating salaries in the NHL, but I’d much rather have Bryzgalov’s $5.7m to Rinne’s $7m if we’re talking about a slim margin of difference. Wait a second, I take that back – I hate both deals immensely.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Considering that Luongo is making $6.7 mil a year for the next 7 years, this is not a bad deal.
If by that you mean that he’s not good enough for it then Luongo is a really good example of why this is a bad contract. He’s been one of the 2 or 3 best goalies since the lockout. I think people are overreacting to a cold start and he’s still a good goaltender but if we go along with the narrative and think Luongo now sucks because he’s messed up mentally this is exactly what RyanP is talking about when he says Nashville takes on all the risk. Luongo has been an elite goaltender, and one could make the argument that he was worth that much money over the last several seasons. You don’t think a similar drop in quality could happen to Rinne, who has only had one season ever on par with Luongo’s last 6 seasons?
I’m not arguing for the Luongo contract at all, I think long-term deals for goaltenders are a mistake in general, but his situation makes me feel worse about the Rinne contract if anything.
Driving Play - The Blog with Three First Lines
by JaredL on Nov 8, 2011 9:09 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Actually, no
I was saying the Luongo deal has clearly been worth it, and if Rinne plays the same way, he will be worth it as well.
Poile has shown no hesitation before in letting seemingly good goalies head out of town. I don’t have evidence for this, but I strongly suspect he was ordered to get a deal done by ownership, in an effort to “show the fans they are serious about winning and entice Shea Weber and Ryan Suter to stick around”. It doesn’t make this a good deal by any stretch, but it would help explain why a generally competent GM appears to have suddenly lost his mind.
I’m not sure about ordered or not. But there have been some other shifts in direction as Rob mentioned above. I’ll likely do a follow-up on some of the other shifts in philosophy over at HP this week.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
I'll check back in 5 years on this deal, but...
Right now, this was the deal Poile had to make. Why?
To show the team (read: mainly Suter and Weber) that they are serious about keeping their core. The Big 3 give the team a good chance to win every night, and the team is tired of letting the really good talent go. Sure Sullivan, Dumont, Goc, Ward were all let go. But they are average players, or near the end of their careers.
The argument here is the Preds are going to stay at the mid-cap. Well, to the contrary, this may be the first step in breaking that cycle. While talk is cheap, Cigarran (lead owner in the ownership group) stated things that I never heard him say before. That they HAVE the money to sign all 3 players, that they are committed to winning a Cup and believe the time is now. So, this is it: for the next few years they are going to spend to near the cap to accomplish that goal.
Pekka’s deal shows they are serious about retaining talent. Poile seems bullish on Radulov coming back to the team next season. Craig Smith is emerging as a true top-6 center. The team has better marketing, sponsors, attendance, than ever. These next few months are going to be interesting for us as Preds fans, but this is first step.
I can see this argument
And I think Ryan makes that same point in the last paragraph (concerning the Rinne signing).
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 4:29 PM EST up reply actions
I think he thought he'd have Weber signed by now
So I think it’s a somewhat desperate move, yes…the Rinne contract didn’t necessarily need to be addressed.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 4:58 PM EST up reply actions
He was going to be UFA at the end of the season? So, yes it did need to be addressed. Weber was looking for commitment from the team to winning. He could’ve take a 2-year arbitration deal and left as a UFA.
Yes, it needed to be addressed
But not in November! If you’re going to wait for the season to start before re-signing the player, teams typically wait to get more of a season out of the player to increase their confidence in the signing. It’s just good business. But there are ulterior motives here.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 7:00 PM EST up reply actions
Simply put, Pekka isn’t that kinda guy. He defies goalie stereotypes. The more stable he is in his position, the better he plays. He’s a competitor in the purest sense. If it was any other goalie, you would probably be right. Peks is different.
Betting $49m on your goalie being a unique flower, eh?
by Passive Voice on Nov 7, 2011 7:41 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
The Preds have 2 other big guys to sign... or trade
So this did have to be done ASAP.
For the sake of Preds fans, I hope Cigarran is serious about spending some money.
That said, if they have the money to sign all 3, why not sign Weber to a long term deal rather than risk offending him by low-balling him at arbitration?
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
I don't think they low balled him.
Dignify us all and please don’t quote the number given out from the hearing itself.
Exactly, we’re pretty sure he was offered in the $7 mil/year range as well in the real negotiations.
The only number I have with confirmation is the one from the hearing. Everything else is just speculation. It`s also the number that went public, which can`t help the ego of a guy who should have won the Norris.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Oh please, like Weber was emotionally crushed by that number in an arbitration. He said himself that it was just part of the process. Do you really think in the months before that Poile was just sitting around $4.75 million? If you think that, I have a bridge to sell you…
I’m not saying that. I’m just saying that guys measure their worth by the size of their salary, and a guy who was the best d-man in the league last year has to wonder why his team would wait until arbitration to try and settle things.
The 1-year deal wasn’t that bad for both sides actually. Weber gets the bucks he wanted and the Preds get to see if he can be elite for another year before they lock him up long term. But if I’m Poile, I’d much rather be paying Weber and Suter the big bucks than Rinne – given the markets for their respective positions.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
You know why it’s worth keeping Rinne? Because he won’t be on another team next year, or in the next 7 years – stealing games for them. Perhaps even stealing a Cup for them. To me, that is a sense of relief.
I can get a sense of relief for much less than $7m per year. In Alberta we call it whiskey ;)
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
You failed to dignify us...
We know $4.75 mil wasn’t the actual number offered to Weber.
“a guy who was the best d-man in the league last year has to wonder why his team would wait until arbitration to try and settle things.”
Who said the team waited till arbitration to settle things? Much more likely Weber and his loudmouth agent opted for arbitration so as to a) get top-top dollar b) limit the length of contract so as to have the option to test the free agent market sooner c) remove the option of arbitration from next summers proceeding, allowing the possibility of an offer sheet.
This was a power play by Weber to be able to make as much money possible and/or go to a team of his choosing that he thinks can “win”. And that’s entirely his right.
Poiles offer
From what Weber said this past weekend Rinne’s deal was very close to what Poile offered him last summer. The problem was he didn’t want to sign such a long term deal if Poile/ownership was not serious about winning. Hopefully this deal will somewhat convince him.
Pekka’s deal shows they are serious about retaining talent.
I understand that argument, but I struggle with the concept that 7 years/$30-35m is somehow less serious about retaining talent. Granted, we don’t know that Rinne takes that, but if he’s holding you hostage for an extra $14-$19m, do you really want to lock him up long term anyway?
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by George E. Ays on Nov 8, 2011 10:57 AM EST up reply actions 1 recs
Here's some good points from Elliotte Friedman.
Very interesting reactions to Rinne’s new deal with Nashville. “Statement contract,” said one exec. “Fair deal for both sides,” said another. That seems to be the majority opinion. Saw some media claiming that $7 million is too much for a goalie, but I disagree here. This is not just about a goalie. This is about a franchise that becomes the Kansas City Royals or Pittsburgh Pirates if it doesn’t get at least one of Rinne/Suter/Weber signed and soon.
One agent explained why Rinne was the most signable. Since the lockout, the largest UFA deal for a goaltender is four years and $27 million for Khabibulin in Chicago. (Technically, Ilya Bryzgalov never hit the market). High-level defencemen tend to do much better. That gave Rinne more incentive a take a big-money contract sooner. However, if they didn’t get it done in the very near future, he was going to stop negotiating and take his chances. Wisely, the Predators got it done.
Ref: http://www.cbc.ca/sports/hockey/opinion/2011/11/blues-smart-to-hire-hitchcock-30-thoughts.html
Elliotte Friedman has spoken
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 7, 2011 7:01 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs
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