Reasonable Expectations: How Many Points will the Minnesota Wild Finish the Season with?
by Hawerchuk on Nov 14, 2011 2:16 PM EST
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Minnesota is off to a hot start, with 21 points in their first 17 games. Their numbers don't look substantially different than they did over the last three years aside from their 5-on-5 save percentage: (those are league-wide ranks, btw - Minnesota was 30th in the league in shots for in each of the last three seasons!)
| Rank | 5v5 | 5v5 | 5v5 | 5v5 | |
| SF/60 | SA/60 | Sdiff/60 | SV% | Pts/82 | |
| 2011-12 | 27 | 21 | 25 | 1 (946) | 101 |
| 2010-11 | 30 | 27 | 30 | 14 (921) | 86 |
| 2009-10 | 30 | 16 | 25 | 22 (911) | 84 |
| 2008-09 | 30 | 19 | 26 | 4 (925) | 89 |
| 3yr Avg | 30 | 21 | 27 | 13 (919) | 86 |
The highest non-Tim Thomas-driven 5v5 save percentage over the last four seasons is 933, so you can be absolutely sure this is unsustainable. In fact, it's not clear that the Wild are any better than they've been for the last three seasons. So how will Minnesota do going forward?
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Aaaannddd
Now its hockey season
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Voting low 90s, on the basis of points already banked.
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I thought about it, but eventually settled on 85-89.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
An 86 point pace (their three-year average) would have them at 18 points through 17 games. They actually have 21 points, so that’s three extra points in the bank.
If they revert to their 86-point pace, that puts them at 89. Which makes 85-89 vs 90-94 a tough decision if you think they’re roughly the same team as they were the last three years.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
by Eric T. on Nov 14, 2011 3:21 PM EST up reply actions 2 recs
NOT the same team by FAR
There’s a new coach in MN who has a history with many of the newer Wild players and younger players in their farm team at Houston. Mike Yeo was an assistant at PIT in ’09 and last year took the Aeros deep in the championship series. He knows what it takes to get the the big show.
The chemistry with and foreknowledge of his available players in the AHL isn’t a statistic that can be quantified, but in watching the performance, generally, of the team the first 20 games I can assure you that this is NOT the same team as the last 3 years, nor even close to it.
Granted their offense isn’t pouring in the goals at this point but they’re winning the majority of their games and particularly the close games. Backstrom and Harding are both healthy and locked on with a stingy 1.91 GA average combined while the blue-liners continue to force opponents to shot from the outside.
There is also a lot more depth in the Houston team than many fans are recognizing at this point.
Beware of underrating and underestimating this team.
Am I reading that chart wrong? Because according to http://www.behindthenet.ca/2011/team_data3.php?sort=15 the Wild are generating 25.1 SF/60 and 30.3 SA/60.
The only way I could interpret a Sdiff/60 being in the 20’s was if these were league ranks, not values.
@BSH_EricT
Writer at Broad Street Hockey
Minnesota is terrible
I went with 74.
I figure they’ll get 53 points in their remaining 65 games, based on their league-worst close-game Corsi% of .435, although in retrospect I should have boosted that based on the number of game they get against lousy Northwest Division teams.
Mike Yeo did work wonders for the Houston Aeros, maybe he can do it in Minnesota, but I think the smart money is on a stiff regression, and soon.
I put them in the 90-94 range for the “lousy Northwest” reason, although I don’t know if I would call it lousy, I just see a lot of parity in that division.
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Nov 14, 2011 4:12 PM EST up reply actions
Someone wrote up a detailed how-to but I seem to have misplaced the link. Anyway, this is the link you’d use to get the close-game numbers for Minnesota: http://www.timeonice.com/mplayershots1112close.php?team=MIN&first=20001&last=21230&hv=0
Change “MIN” to a different team abbreviation for their numbers, change “close” to “tied” to get score-tied numbers or eliminate it all together for overall even-strength numbers, change “1112” to “1011” or “0809” or whatever to get past seasons’ data and change the numbers after “first” and “last” to different NHL game numbers to view data from that sample alone. Hope that helps.
by The Neutral on Nov 14, 2011 11:48 PM EST up reply actions
Thanks. That will help. I'll have to play around with it. It sounds like you have to do each team 1 at a time and
compile the list yourself.
malheuresement yes, although last year jlikens was periodically compiling lists at objectivenhl.blogspot.com. He’s been quiet recently, though.
by Passive Voice on Nov 15, 2011 1:29 PM EST up reply actions
Okay
Who did the >120pts vote? Now that’s just ridiculous.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 14, 2011 5:44 PM EST reply actions
Delusional Wild fans? aka GABES ENEMIES
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Nov 16, 2011 4:26 PM EST up reply actions
Low 80s. From my perspective they look like they only got worse between seasons.
by SmellOfVictory on Nov 17, 2011 12:51 AM EST reply actions
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