Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Two Minutes Of Thunder Basketball Wins The Game

The State of the Jets: October

Mark Scheifele learns bewilderment from the master, Andrew Ladd.

I've decided it would be nice to get a statistical update of our players, if only to see if what we're seeing on the ice is also what is borne out of the numbers.  Especially in the early going, some of these rate statistics are subject to swings, as their sample is relatively low (12 games).  At least in this first installment (I'll do these month-to-month), I'm including a couple of November games, just because that was the point that I thought of doing it.  I have a key and then the statistics after the jump.

Star-divide

Key

55TOI = Time on-ice 5v5                       SF/60 = Shots-for per 60 min.

SA/60 = Shots-against per 60 min.        OZS% = % of shifts player starts their shift in the O-Zone

QoC = Stands for Quality of Competition, a metric developed by Gabe; I'm actually doing the rankings by position

PDO = Combination of team shooting and save percentage when the player's on the ice; explained here

GS = Games started                             ESSA = Even-strength shots-against

ESSV = Even-strength saves                 ESSV% = Even-strength save percentage

ESSV%-Tm = Even-strength save percentage minus rest of team

ESSV%-Lg = Even-strength save percentage minus rest of league

All the data, minus the goaltender save percentages, were pulled from Gabe's excellent data resource, behindthenet.ca.  All the metrics after a time on-ice metric are recorded at that strength.

Forwards

Player GP 55TOI SF/60 SA/60 OZS% QoC PDO 54TOI SF/60 45TOI SA/60
Alexander Burmistrov 12 13.77 24.0 22.5 60.2 3rd 1052 1.91 23.5 2.44 43.0
Andrew Ladd 12 13.49 32.2 25.9 58.2 10th 975 2.83 38.9 2.42 39.3
Ben Maxwell 2 7.54 15.9 11.9 20.0 15th 750 0.24 0.0 0.96 0.0
Blake Wheeler 12 13.91 30.6 28.0 56.5 13th 973 2.43 39.1 0.38 52.9
Brett MacLean 5 7.91 41.0 30.3 52.9 7th 1009 0.44 54.5 0.09 138.5
Bryan Little 12 14.20 31.3 26.8 57.9 11th 970 2.76 39.8 2.41 47.8
Chris Thorburn 12 9.34 16.6 34.3 29.5 8th 1003 0.22 45.9 1.61 43.6
Evander Kane 11 12.68 30.5 20.6 71.2 5th 962 1.70 57.7 0.07 78.3
Jim Slater 10 11.05 15.7 33.1 26.1 2nd 1066 0.31 38.1 1.81 36.5
Kenndal McArdle 5 6.94 15.6 27.7 57.1 14th 989 0.02 720.0 0.00 ---
Kyle Wellwood 12 11.87 28.2 24.0 61.5 1st 1006 1.62 40.1 0.20 25.0
Mark Scheifele 7 9.22 27.9 22.3 75.0 4th 992 1.19 64.9 0.40 63.5
Nik Antropov 12 13.07 24.1 24.5 60.0 6th 1014 2.01 34.8 2.09 40.6
Tanner Glass 12 10.27 18.0 32.1 28.3 9th 1063 0.19 80.0 0.61 57.8
Tim Stapleton 8 8.93 24.4 30.2 71.1 12th 981 0.85 70.9 0.00 ---

Defencemen

Player G 55TOI SF/60 SA/60 ZS% QoC PDO 54TOI SF/60 45TOI SA/60
Brett Festerling 1 17.08 49.2 45.7 46.2 7th 1067 0.00 --- 2.00 60.0
Derek Meech 2 10.04 41.8 38.8 57.1 6th 1067 1.29 23.2 0.00 ---
Dustin Byfuglien 12 18.90 29.4 25.7 52.3 4th 957 3.43 43.7 0.65 46.0
Johnny Oduya 11 14.13 19.3 31.3 51.2 9th 1033 0.51 10.7 2.43 26.9
Mark Flood 1 13.68 21.9 17.5 50.0 8th 1000 0.00 --- 0.00 ---
Mark Stuart 11 14.12 24.3 30.5 56.6 3rd 1006 0.08 67.9 3.78 44.8
Randy Jones 7 12.95 11.9 24.5 51.2 10th 1045 0.00 --- 1.57 54.7
Ron Hainsey 4 13.73 19.7 17.5 54.8 1st 1071 1.22 49.1 2.67 33.6
Tobias Enstrom 11 16.75 31.3 20.5 51.5 2nd 977 3.94 45.7 3.39 53.1
Zach Bogosian 12 16.34 27.2 31.2 57.0 5th 993 2.29 34.9 2.71 40.6

Goaltenders

Player GP GS ESSA ESSV ESSV% ESSV% - Tm ESSV% - Lg
Chris Mason 4 2 49 44 0.905 0.001 -0.015
Ondrej Pavelec 11 11 253 229 0.898 -0.006 -0.022

Poll
Who do you think was our MVP in October?
Nik Antropov
1 votes
Evander Kane
3 votes
Tobias Enstrom
4 votes
Dustin Byfuglien
2 votes
Alexander Burmistrov
11 votes
Kyle Wellwood
7 votes
Jim Slater
1 votes
Ondrej Pavelec
1 votes

30 votes | Poll has closed

Comment 15 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

Comments

Display:

Your photo caption made me laugh

now you know

In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey

by canadian texan on Nov 12, 2011 2:27 AM EST reply actions  

Pavelec ES SV %

There is no way it should be as low as it is. He has had some bad bounces here and there but the Jets will be a sub .500 team if he can’t get that in the .920 range.

Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos! Follow me on Twitter @TJCAPS.

by TJCAPS on Nov 12, 2011 11:05 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions  

Why the deep end for the GST line?

It’s a great name and people seem to love it – but they’re getting murdered. Couldn’t Noel somehow give them a little better than 30% zone starts?

Ladd and Little are definitely capable of taking some of the heavy lifting off their hands.

Ryan Popilchak

Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated

by SO_RyanP on Nov 12, 2011 2:11 PM EST reply actions  

I guess the question then becomes is improvement in defense enough to offset the drop in offence that Ladd & Little would take? Not sure what the answer is.

by Alex Hemsky on Nov 12, 2011 2:43 PM EST up reply actions  

Is there a way to answer the question:

How much of the GST’s performance driven by bad zone starts? A couple good articles I found:

http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2011/3/22/2062073/balanced-corsi

http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/2/3/1967901/expected-zone-shift-2007-08-to-2010-11

One problem with using these approaches is that they’re off the bottom of the charts. Hardly anyone else is seeing that much of their own zone.

by Alex Hemsky on Nov 12, 2011 2:59 PM EST up reply actions  

I've looked into expected shots-for/shots-against given different OZ%

Haven’t done the post yet. But for a line that gets ~25 percent, they’re expected to get outshot 22.2 to 30.2 at 60 minutes of 5v5 hockey. So they’re still below average, even with that kind of handicap considered.

Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey

Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.

by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 12, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions  

Slater’s getting outshot 17.4/60 so doesn’t that make him above average?

Am I missing something?

by Alex Hemsky on Nov 12, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions  

The average to get outshot at his zone starts is 8/60

Since he’s getting outshot nearly double that, that makes him below-average performance-wise.

Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey

Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.

by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 13, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions  

Is there an issue with QoC being wonky at the beginning of the season?

I assume the relative +/- calculation is done at the time of the game (and not recalculated later) so this seems possible.

John Willis also mentioned this in his article about Dustin.

by Alex Hemsky on Nov 12, 2011 2:28 PM EST reply actions  

Yeah

I didn’t want to put much bearing on those numbers yet, which is why I opted for the rankings rather than the data. Either way, it’s such a difficult value to generate any intuitive sense about; half of the games, your coach has no control over it.

Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey

Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.

by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 12, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions  

Kyle Wellwood: Shutdown specialist :)

It seems to me they’ve been trying to use Little & Ladd and Toby & Dustin against the top line at home. Past that it looks like a free for all.

If I get bored one day I’d like to sift thru the TOI stuff for patterns.

by Alex Hemsky on Nov 12, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

The finest Winnipeg Jets analysis on the internets

FanPosts


Managers

Hawerchuk_small Hawerchuk

Gary_bettman_bad_dreams_small Bettman's Nightmare

Grapes_small canadian texan

Howe_small TJCAPS

Editors

Ryan_small SO_RyanP

0_small maplestirup

Jets2_small arby_18