The State of the Jets: October
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 11, 2011 8:00 AM EST
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I've decided it would be nice to get a statistical update of our players, if only to see if what we're seeing on the ice is also what is borne out of the numbers. Especially in the early going, some of these rate statistics are subject to swings, as their sample is relatively low (12 games). At least in this first installment (I'll do these month-to-month), I'm including a couple of November games, just because that was the point that I thought of doing it. I have a key and then the statistics after the jump.
Key
55TOI = Time on-ice 5v5 SF/60 = Shots-for per 60 min.
SA/60 = Shots-against per 60 min. OZS% = % of shifts player starts their shift in the O-Zone
QoC = Stands for Quality of Competition, a metric developed by Gabe; I'm actually doing the rankings by position
PDO = Combination of team shooting and save percentage when the player's on the ice; explained here
GS = Games started ESSA = Even-strength shots-against
ESSV = Even-strength saves ESSV% = Even-strength save percentage
ESSV%-Tm = Even-strength save percentage minus rest of team
ESSV%-Lg = Even-strength save percentage minus rest of league
All the data, minus the goaltender save percentages, were pulled from Gabe's excellent data resource, behindthenet.ca. All the metrics after a time on-ice metric are recorded at that strength.
Forwards
| Player | GP | 55TOI | SF/60 | SA/60 | OZS% | QoC | PDO | 54TOI | SF/60 | 45TOI | SA/60 |
| Alexander Burmistrov | 12 | 13.77 | 24.0 | 22.5 | 60.2 | 3rd | 1052 | 1.91 | 23.5 | 2.44 | 43.0 |
| Andrew Ladd | 12 | 13.49 | 32.2 | 25.9 | 58.2 | 10th | 975 | 2.83 | 38.9 | 2.42 | 39.3 |
| Ben Maxwell | 2 | 7.54 | 15.9 | 11.9 | 20.0 | 15th | 750 | 0.24 | 0.0 | 0.96 | 0.0 |
| Blake Wheeler | 12 | 13.91 | 30.6 | 28.0 | 56.5 | 13th | 973 | 2.43 | 39.1 | 0.38 | 52.9 |
| Brett MacLean | 5 | 7.91 | 41.0 | 30.3 | 52.9 | 7th | 1009 | 0.44 | 54.5 | 0.09 | 138.5 |
| Bryan Little | 12 | 14.20 | 31.3 | 26.8 | 57.9 | 11th | 970 | 2.76 | 39.8 | 2.41 | 47.8 |
| Chris Thorburn | 12 | 9.34 | 16.6 | 34.3 | 29.5 | 8th | 1003 | 0.22 | 45.9 | 1.61 | 43.6 |
| Evander Kane | 11 | 12.68 | 30.5 | 20.6 | 71.2 | 5th | 962 | 1.70 | 57.7 | 0.07 | 78.3 |
| Jim Slater | 10 | 11.05 | 15.7 | 33.1 | 26.1 | 2nd | 1066 | 0.31 | 38.1 | 1.81 | 36.5 |
| Kenndal McArdle | 5 | 6.94 | 15.6 | 27.7 | 57.1 | 14th | 989 | 0.02 | 720.0 | 0.00 | --- |
| Kyle Wellwood | 12 | 11.87 | 28.2 | 24.0 | 61.5 | 1st | 1006 | 1.62 | 40.1 | 0.20 | 25.0 |
| Mark Scheifele | 7 | 9.22 | 27.9 | 22.3 | 75.0 | 4th | 992 | 1.19 | 64.9 | 0.40 | 63.5 |
| Nik Antropov | 12 | 13.07 | 24.1 | 24.5 | 60.0 | 6th | 1014 | 2.01 | 34.8 | 2.09 | 40.6 |
| Tanner Glass | 12 | 10.27 | 18.0 | 32.1 | 28.3 | 9th | 1063 | 0.19 | 80.0 | 0.61 | 57.8 |
| Tim Stapleton | 8 | 8.93 | 24.4 | 30.2 | 71.1 | 12th | 981 | 0.85 | 70.9 | 0.00 | --- |
Defencemen
| Player | G | 55TOI | SF/60 | SA/60 | ZS% | QoC | PDO | 54TOI | SF/60 | 45TOI | SA/60 |
| Brett Festerling | 1 | 17.08 | 49.2 | 45.7 | 46.2 | 7th | 1067 | 0.00 | --- | 2.00 | 60.0 |
| Derek Meech | 2 | 10.04 | 41.8 | 38.8 | 57.1 | 6th | 1067 | 1.29 | 23.2 | 0.00 | --- |
| Dustin Byfuglien | 12 | 18.90 | 29.4 | 25.7 | 52.3 | 4th | 957 | 3.43 | 43.7 | 0.65 | 46.0 |
| Johnny Oduya | 11 | 14.13 | 19.3 | 31.3 | 51.2 | 9th | 1033 | 0.51 | 10.7 | 2.43 | 26.9 |
| Mark Flood | 1 | 13.68 | 21.9 | 17.5 | 50.0 | 8th | 1000 | 0.00 | --- | 0.00 | --- |
| Mark Stuart | 11 | 14.12 | 24.3 | 30.5 | 56.6 | 3rd | 1006 | 0.08 | 67.9 | 3.78 | 44.8 |
| Randy Jones | 7 | 12.95 | 11.9 | 24.5 | 51.2 | 10th | 1045 | 0.00 | --- | 1.57 | 54.7 |
| Ron Hainsey | 4 | 13.73 | 19.7 | 17.5 | 54.8 | 1st | 1071 | 1.22 | 49.1 | 2.67 | 33.6 |
| Tobias Enstrom | 11 | 16.75 | 31.3 | 20.5 | 51.5 | 2nd | 977 | 3.94 | 45.7 | 3.39 | 53.1 |
| Zach Bogosian | 12 | 16.34 | 27.2 | 31.2 | 57.0 | 5th | 993 | 2.29 | 34.9 | 2.71 | 40.6 |
Goaltenders
| Player | GP | GS | ESSA | ESSV | ESSV% | ESSV% - Tm | ESSV% - Lg |
| Chris Mason | 4 | 2 | 49 | 44 | 0.905 | 0.001 | -0.015 |
| Ondrej Pavelec | 11 | 11 | 253 | 229 | 0.898 | -0.006 | -0.022 |
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Your photo caption made me laugh
now you know
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
Pavelec ES SV %
There is no way it should be as low as it is. He has had some bad bounces here and there but the Jets will be a sub .500 team if he can’t get that in the .920 range.
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos! Follow me on Twitter @TJCAPS.
by TJCAPS on Nov 12, 2011 11:05 AM EST via iPhone app reply actions
He started the season poorly and these numbers don't reflect how he did since the 9-8 debacle
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Nov 12, 2011 2:32 PM EST up reply actions
Last game didn't help
but in that little stretch where we were good….it was .920
In Canada our balls are bigger
Writer for Arctic Ice Hockey
by canadian texan on Nov 12, 2011 3:16 PM EST up reply actions
Why the deep end for the GST line?
It’s a great name and people seem to love it – but they’re getting murdered. Couldn’t Noel somehow give them a little better than 30% zone starts?
Ladd and Little are definitely capable of taking some of the heavy lifting off their hands.
Ryan Popilchak
Matchsticks & Gasoline, Artic Ice Hockey, &Hockey Prospectus. My twitter handle is @sprtopinionated
Is there a way to answer the question:
How much of the GST’s performance driven by bad zone starts? A couple good articles I found:
http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2011/3/22/2062073/balanced-corsi
http://www.arcticicehockey.com/2011/2/3/1967901/expected-zone-shift-2007-08-to-2010-11
One problem with using these approaches is that they’re off the bottom of the charts. Hardly anyone else is seeing that much of their own zone.
I've looked into expected shots-for/shots-against given different OZ%
Haven’t done the post yet. But for a line that gets ~25 percent, they’re expected to get outshot 22.2 to 30.2 at 60 minutes of 5v5 hockey. So they’re still below average, even with that kind of handicap considered.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 12, 2011 5:31 PM EST up reply actions
Slater’s getting outshot 17.4/60 so doesn’t that make him above average?
Am I missing something?
by Alex Hemsky on Nov 12, 2011 10:39 PM EST up reply actions
The average to get outshot at his zone starts is 8/60
Since he’s getting outshot nearly double that, that makes him below-average performance-wise.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 13, 2011 2:12 PM EST up reply actions
Is there an issue with QoC being wonky at the beginning of the season?
I assume the relative +/- calculation is done at the time of the game (and not recalculated later) so this seems possible.
John Willis also mentioned this in his article about Dustin.
Yeah
I didn’t want to put much bearing on those numbers yet, which is why I opted for the rankings rather than the data. Either way, it’s such a difficult value to generate any intuitive sense about; half of the games, your coach has no control over it.
Co-Manager at Arctic Ice Hockey
Want Jets historical stats, Gabe Desjardins metrics, Jets prospect scouting reports, player previews, and old school photos from the WHA days? Get your copy of the First Commemorative Maple Street Press Winnipeg Jets Annual for 2011-12 here.
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 12, 2011 5:35 PM EST up reply actions
Kyle Wellwood: Shutdown specialist :)
It seems to me they’ve been trying to use Little & Ladd and Toby & Dustin against the top line at home. Past that it looks like a free for all.
If I get bored one day I’d like to sift thru the TOI stuff for patterns.
by Alex Hemsky on Nov 12, 2011 10:52 PM EST up reply actions
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