Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.
Over the past couple of months we've used various types of projection systems, including Vukota, Snepsts and AHL translations, to set scoring expectations for the Winnipeg Jets. In our final piece we'll put it all together.
The Winnipeg Snepsts
Here's how Snepsts sets the scoring expectations for this year. In short, here are the average scoring totals expected from each player based on their recent statistics, historical matches, and in some cases their AHL league translations.
It doesn’t look very good at all – nobody cracking 50 points, only two 20-goal scorers, and just two 30-assist playmakers. The odds of this scenario are highly unlikely, at least someone should jump up and have a break-out season, and take a linemate or two with them. Just 205 total goals here, 18 fewer than last season, and better than just 4 teams last year (Florida, Edmonton, Ottawa and New Jersey). Grim!
The Vukota Version
Here's how it looks using perhaps the best projection system out there, Tom Awad's Vukota, which is typically more optimistic than Snepsts, but generally doesn’t predict surprise break-outs very often.
At a high-level, Vukota paints a similar picture: two 20-goal scorers and two 30-assist playmakers. Vukota has the advantage of including an estimation of games played, but it also generally results in slightly higher scoring for every player – or significantly higher in the case of Dustin Byfuglien. The total this time is 222 goals, much closer to the league average of 229, and only one short of last year’s total.
Using the high-water mark set by Snepsts and/or Vukota, here's the Buffalo 2006-07/Boston 2008-09/Colorado 2009-10 version of the Winnipeg Jets, where everybody exceeds expectations all at once.
What a roster - a 40-goal scorer, a 30-goal scorer and two more 20-goal men. Little and Enstrom combined for 99 assists, with four more in the 30s. 250 total goals, which is what the 5th-best Calgary Flames scored last season – 12 shy of the league-leading Vancouver Canucks. Obviously this scenario isn’t terribly likely, but it’s great to see the high-water scoring potential for the Jets, and at least a handful of players ought to hit these marks.
Nothing! That's actually it – the end of the series. Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed it.
It's a lot of work, and certainly not easy to put it on the line like that, but we'll be sure to circle back at the end of the year and see how we did.