Jets Comparables IX: Final Scoring

Every Monday we'll be using the Snepsts System to search the NHL's history for players with comparable era-adjusted statistics to today's Jets, and featuring the analysis here at Arctic Ice Hockey. A description and example of the methodology can be found on Hockey Prospectus. To see how this worked for the Calgary Flames last season, visit Flames Nation.

 

Over the past couple of months we've used various types of projection systems, including Vukota, Snepsts and AHL translations, to set scoring expectations for the Winnipeg Jets. In our final piece we'll put it all together.

 

The Winnipeg Snepsts

 

Here's how Snepsts sets the scoring expectations for this year.  In short, here are the average scoring totals expected from each player based on their recent statistics, historical matches, and in some cases their AHL league translations.

 

Player

GP

G

A

PTS

Andrew Ladd

82

23

25

48

Dustin Byfuglien

82

17

30

47

Bryan Little

79

19

25

44

Tobias Enstrom

82

9

35

44

Evander Kane

75

20

23

43

Blake Wheeler

82

18

23

41

Nik Antropov

76

14

21

35

Eric Fehr

70

13

15

28

Alexander Burmistrov

74

9

19

28

Zach Bogosian

67

9

15

24

Derek Meech

74

5

14

19

Ben Maxwell

49

5

3

18

Kyle Wellwood

55

7

11

18

Jim Slater

49

7

9

16

Ron Hainsey

66

3

13

16

Randy Jones

55

2

12

14

Tim Stapleton

73

7

7

14

Chris Thorburn

82

5

9

14

Johnny Oduya

64

2

10

12

Brett Festerling

53

2

8

10

Tanner Glass

70

2

8

10

Mark Stuart

51

2

5

7

 

It doesn’t look very good at all – nobody cracking 50 points, only two 20-goal scorers, and just two 30-assist playmakers.  The odds of this scenario are highly unlikely, at least someone should jump up and have a break-out season, and take a linemate or two with them.  Just 205 total goals here, 18 fewer than last season, and better than just 4 teams last year (Florida, Edmonton, Ottawa and New Jersey).  Grim!

 

The Vukota Version

 

Here's how it looks using perhaps the best projection system out there, Tom Awad's Vukota, which is typically more optimistic than Snepsts, but generally doesn’t predict surprise break-outs very often.

 

Player

GP

G

A

PTS

Dustin Byfuglien

82

19

43

62

Andrew Ladd

74

23

28

51

Bryan Little

71

18

28

46

Tobias Enstrom

67

9

34

43

Evander Kane

75

25

28

43

Blake Wheeler

71

17

25

42

Nik Antropov

64

16

26

42

Eric Fehr

58

15

16

31

Alexander Burmistrov

66

10

17

27

Zach Bogosian

67

8

18

26

Kyle Wellwood

55

9

14

23

Ron Hainsey

66

4

15

19

Jim Slater

49

9

10

19

Chris Thorburn

65

8

9

17

Randy Jones

55

3

12

15

Johnny Oduya

64

3

12

15

Tim Stapleton

43

6

5

11

Ben Maxwell

29

4

5

9

Mark Stuart

51

2

6

8

Tanner Glass

59

3

5

8

Brett Festerling

33

1

5

6

 

At a high-level, Vukota paints a similar picture: two 20-goal scorers and two 30-assist playmakers. Vukota has the advantage of including an estimation of games played, but it also generally results in slightly higher scoring for every player – or significantly higher in the case of Dustin Byfuglien.  The total this time is 222 goals, much closer to the league average of 229, and only one short of last year’s total.

 

Best-Case Jets

 

Using the high-water mark set by Snepsts and/or Vukota, here's the Buffalo 2006-07/Boston 2008-09/Colorado 2009-10 version of the Winnipeg Jets, where everybody exceeds expectations all at once.

 

Player

GP

G

A

PTS

Andrew Ladd

82

42

30

72

Dustin Byfuglien

82

19

43

62

Tobias Enstrom

82

9

52

61

Bryan Little

79

14

47

61

Evander Kane

75

38

22

60

Nik Antropov

76

24

31

55

Blake Wheeler

82

15

34

49

Eric Fehr

70

18

21

39

Alexander Burmistrov

66

10

17

27

Zach Bogosian

67

9

15

24

Kyle Wellwood

55

9

14

23

Chris Thorburn

82

0

23

23

Jim Slater

49

9

10

19

Ron Hainsey

66

4

15

19

Derek Meech

74

5

14

19

Ben Maxwell

49

5

3

18

Randy Jones

55

3

12

15

Johnny Oduya

64

3

12

15

Tim Stapleton

73

7

7

14

Brett Festerling

53

2

8

10

Tanner Glass

70

2

8

10

Mark Stuart

51

2

6

8

 

What a roster - a 40-goal scorer, a 30-goal scorer and two more 20-goal men. Little and Enstrom combined for 99 assists, with four more in the 30s.  250 total goals, which is what the 5th-best Calgary Flames scored last season – 12 shy of the league-leading Vancouver Canucks.  Obviously this scenario isn’t terribly likely, but it’s great to see the high-water scoring potential for the Jets, and at least a handful of players ought to hit these marks.

 

Next week

 

Nothing! That's actually it – the end of the series. Thanks for reading, and I hope you enjoyed it.

 

It's a lot of work, and certainly not easy to put it on the line like that, but we'll be sure to circle back at the end of the year and see how we did.

 

 

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