Revisiting a few projections from last year...

I kind of slept through projection season this year, but I figured we might as well re-visit last seasons projections.

1) Patrick Marleau's projections:

Comps: 74 GP - 34 G - 32 A - 66 P - 227 Sh (73 P/82/252 Sh/82)

3-2-1: 79 - 32 - 34 - 66 - 252 (69/262)

Vukota: 78 - 35 - 38 - 73 (77)

Actual: 82 - 37 - 36 - 73 - 279 (73/279)

Marleau was right in line with his comps and his three-year average, and managed to stay in the lineup every day.

2) Jarome Iginla's projections:

Comps: 75 - 22 - 32 - 54 - 205 (59/224)

3-2-1: 82 - 36 - 45 - 81 - 281 (81/281)

Vukota: 76 - 29 - 39 - 68 (73)

Actual: 82 - 43 - 43 - 86 - 289 (86/289)

Iginla bounced back nicely to historical averages last season after a desultory 2009-10 season. The simple 3-2-1 projection (3x last year + 2x two years ago + 1x three years ago, all divided by 6) gave the closest results, but it doesn't know anything about how likely a guy in his mid-30s is to completely collapse.

3) Sidney Crosby's projections:

Comps: 77 - 39 - 54 - 93 - 257 (99/274)

3-2-1: 75 - 41 - 60 - 101 - 257 (110/281)

Actual: 41 - 32 - 34 - 66 - 161 (132/322)

Crosby's injury was a freak one; he was likely to beat his projections. What he'll do from here on in is anyone's guess.

4) Henrik Sedin's projections:

Comps: 82 - 31 - 77 - 108 - 256 (108/256)

3-2-1: 82 - 24 - 72 - 96 - 154 (96/154)

Actual: 82 - 19 - 75 - 94 - 157 (94/157)

Henrik had what appeared to be a breakout season at age 30 in 2009-10. Players don't usually break out at age 30, so we expected him to regress to his historical norms. Our comps weren't particularly useful - there aren't are a lot of historical comparables to a pure playmaker like Henrik. But going forward, it should be clear that 2009-10 was an aberration.

5) The crowd's projection for the Toronto Maple Leafs - 83 points...Actual = 85 points.

Not much to quibble with here.

6) Always bet the under

Only three out of the top 20 scorers in 2009-10 increased their point output in 2010-11. Remember - always bet the under!!!

7) Some terrible picks I made, of course - Ilya Kovalchuk having some value in New Jersey, Tampa having good goaltending...I'm sure there were many more...

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