I kind of slept through projection season this year, but I figured we might as well re-visit last seasons projections.
1) Patrick Marleau’s projections:
Comps: 74 GP – 34 G – 32 A – 66 P – 227 Sh (73 P/82/252 Sh/82)
3-2-1: 79 – 32 – 34 – 66 – 252 (69/262)
Vukota: 78 – 35 – 38 – 73 (77)
Actual: 82 – 37 – 36 – 73 – 279 (73/279)
Marleau was right in line with his comps and his three-year average, and managed to stay in the lineup every day.
2) Jarome Iginla’s projections:
Comps: 75 – 22 – 32 – 54 – 205 (59/224)
3-2-1: 82 – 36 – 45 – 81 – 281 (81/281)
Vukota: 76 – 29 – 39 – 68 (73)
Actual: 82 – 43 – 43 – 86 – 289 (86/289)
Iginla bounced back nicely to historical averages last season after a desultory 2009-10 season. The simple 3-2-1 projection (3x last year + 2x two years ago + 1x three years ago, all divided by 6) gave the closest results, but it doesn't know anything about how likely a guy in his mid-30s is to completely collapse.
3) Sidney Crosby’s projections:
Comps: 77 – 39 – 54 – 93 – 257 (99/274)
3-2-1: 75 – 41 – 60 – 101 – 257 (110/281)
Actual: 41 – 32 – 34 – 66 – 161 (132/322)
Crosby's injury was a freak one; he was likely to beat his projections. What he'll do from here on in is anyone's guess.
4) Henrik Sedin’s projections:
Comps: 82 – 31 – 77 – 108 – 256 (108/256)
3-2-1: 82 – 24 – 72 – 96 – 154 (96/154)
Actual: 82 – 19 – 75 – 94 – 157 (94/157)
Henrik had what appeared to be a breakout season at age 30 in 2009-10. Players don't usually break out at age 30, so we expected him to regress to his historical norms. Our comps weren't particularly useful – there aren't are a lot of historical comparables to a pure playmaker like Henrik. But going forward, it should be clear that 2009-10 was an aberration.
5) The crowd’s projection for the Toronto Maple Leafs – 83 points…Actual = 85 points.
Not much to quibble with here.
Only three out of the top 20 scorers in 2009-10 increased their point output in 2010-11. Remember – always bet the under!!!
7) Some terrible picks I made, of course – Ilya Kovalchuk having some value in New Jersey, Tampa having good goaltending…I’m sure there were many more…