Bruins ready for a fall

Do you remember last year when Tim Thomas was finished?  Untradeable?  How things have changed!  Thanks to Thomas, Boston has, by far, the highest 5-on-5 save percentage in the league (942), which is six points higher than the high over the last four seasons, also Boston (2008-09.  Even though Boston might have the worst defense in the league, they've allowed fewer goals than anyone in the league!

Thomas' numbers are well above his six-year averages, and at 5-on-5, he's actually further ahead this year than he was behind last year:

 

EV EV EV PK PK PK PP PP PP
SV SA SV% SV SA SV% SV SA SV%
2010-11 928 977 950 163 177 921 33 35 943
2009-10 902 988 913 181 197 919 34 36 944
2008-09 1241 1320 940 297 328 905 42 46 913
2007-08 1261 1351 933 276 317 871 58 63 921
2006-07 1398 1520 920 312 369 846 87 96 906
2005-06 845 914 925 232 261 889 35 38 921
TOTAL 6575 7070 930 1461 1649 886 289 314 920

 

I think that Tim Thomas established his talent over six years; there's no reason to think that at age 36, he's figured out something new.  Let's see what would have happened if things had things unfolded at Thomas' 50th percentile:

 

SV SA SV%
EV 909 977 930
PK 157 177 887
PP 32 35 914
TOT 1098 1189 923
ACT 1124 1189 945

 

Thomas is 26 goals better than his own personal average this season.  Boston wouldn't have lost all of those goals had Thomas played at that level, but it's not inconceivable that they would be 9th in the East today.  Regardless of where they'd be in that alternate universe, they are slated for some serious regression over the rest of the season.

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