Reasonable Expectations: Patrick Marleau 2010-11
by Hawerchuk on Sep 8, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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How often does a player go from being maligned on a daily basis and stripped of his captaincy to scoring five of his team's seven goals against the eventual Stanley Cup winner before signing a four-year, nearly $28M contract? Just about never?
Well, that's Patrick Marleau's story. He's always been the same guy - he just hit the biggest streak of bad luck we've seen from just about anyone and now has four good seasons since the lockout. But expectations are also higher for him - are they reasonable?
| GP | G | A | P | Shots | Age | |
| Marleau 2009-10 | 82 | 44 | 39 | 83 | 275 | 30.3 |
| 36 Comps | 82 | 44 | 42 | 86 | 268 | 30.2 |
| Next Season | 74 | 34 | 32 | 66 | 227 | |
| 3-2-1 | 79 | 32 | 34 | 66 | 252 | |
| Vukota | 78 | 35 | 38 | 73 | - |
It's pretty unlikely that Marleau crosses the 80-point barrier again next year for just the third time in his career, and 66 points will seem like a huge drop-off from what he's done recently. But, again, a guy crossing over 30 is not one we look to for a breakout season. It's a testament to his abilities that he projects for 30+ goals no matter how we look at him.
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I think that Marleau will probably slide a bit less than the group of comparables for two reasons. The first is the inclusion of the 2007-08 season in some of the projections, which looks to be like an outlier based on his performance in the last five. The second reason is that he probably still gets to play with Joe Thornton, who’s an amazing talent.
Do you know where I can find Vukota predictions for individual players on the 2010-11 Edmonton Oilers?
by David Staples @ The Cult of Hockey on Sep 8, 2010 11:12 AM EDT reply actions
To me this depends a lot on what role Marleau takes on last year. With Malhotra gone he’ll likely see a lot of high end PK minutes again. It will also be interesting to see if McLellan sticks with the big line again this year (Marleau, Thornton, Heatley) or splits them up (I prefer bumping up Setoguchi and putting Marleau down to line two with Pavelski). If he plays on a quasi scoring/defensive line with Pavelski that could help offset the lack of a top tier blueline that’s currently in place in San Jose.
"San Jose is where I want to be at the end of the day, and there's an opportunity now to make it there. It is where my heart is." - Jamie McGinn, 2/22/10
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
I don’t see any evidence that Marleau’s PK role changed when Malhotra was around. What are you thinking in particular was different?
I was trying to say that the Sharks didn’t bring in any big minute PK forwards who would be able to reduce Marleau’s minutes on the kill. He will likely play the same amount of time shorthanded as he has the last two seasons.
"San Jose is where I want to be at the end of the day, and there's an opportunity now to make it there. It is where my heart is." - Jamie McGinn, 2/22/10
Fear The Fin: Where Selling Your Soul Is The Likely Solution
Totally agree with Plank...
And I think the top 6 forward in San Jose are as solid now as maybe ever for us… Marleau is the most interchangable player in that top six…
I don’t see his production slowing down at all. It might even go up slightly.
by skilletboy on Sep 8, 2010 4:45 PM EDT up reply actions
At this point, Sunny Mehta walks in and asks you if you’re willing to wager 100$ on that. The odds of Marleau’s production going up are slim. Doesn’t mean he’s not good, but 31-year old wingers who set career highs rarely exceed them. This is a milder version of the Henrik Sedin debate.
While I wouldn’t bet money that they would go up… you’ll notice I said they MIGHT go up… I’d probably bet they would stay the same.
Marleau was on a tear last year like we haven’t seen in a while. He ended the season on fire. He unfortunetly for us was the only guy scoring. You’re talking about a guy who leads the NHL since 2001 in GWG’s…
Disagree if you like but I think Patty’s best hockey will be in the next two years. just my opinion.
by skilletboy on Sep 8, 2010 5:28 PM EDT up reply actions
What percentage of 31-year-old forwards saw their production increase at Age 32 and 33?
What is the peak performance age for a hockey player?
How often do players see their production increase when they match up against the other team’s top line and play the PK?
What percentage of 31-year-old forwards saw their production increase at Age 32
For those playing 40 or more games, 32%. With no games played minimum, 34%
and 33?
For those playing 40 or more games, 30%. With no games played minimum, 32%
Editor of The Copper & Blue, and leader of The Cult Of Hartikainen.
Good answer Derek. I think the more important question is: what percentage of 31-year-olds who hit 3-year highs in their production improved the next season? I’d wager it’s less than 30%.
A lot of it depends on what teammates are on his line with him and the role he plays, but assuming he stays on the top line i could see him getting 80 points. Mostly because Thornton is in a contract year, and I expect an increase in production from Heatley, so Marleau should benefit point-wise from those two things.
Now if we’re talking goals…i don’t really see Marleau setting another career high in that department this season. I think last season Thornton was still much more comfortable setting up guys on his right wing (like Seto and Cheechoo) which imo explains why Marleau had more goals than Heatley (a guy who’s already scored 50 goals twice in his career).
Heatley is too good not to reach 40 goals for the 3rd time in a row and Thornton should be better adjusted to setting him up next season so i’m expecting Heatley to get close to 50 goals this season.
“He’s always been the same guy – he just hit the biggest streak of bad luck we’ve seen from just about anyone and now has four good seasons since the lockout.”
What are you referencing there? Team success?
Wasn’t that the year he was hurt late in the season and everyone was howling over him “choking” in the “clutch” of March through May?
SNN Sports - A theoretical Oilers blog (i.e. theoretically, I write stuff there). Link now 100% less broken.
His sh% was pretty low at the beginning of the season. And he basically told everybody he’d regress to the mean…No one believed him…
… and they were right (at least that year). Sometimes life really isn’t fair.
by Scott Reynolds on Sep 9, 2010 11:02 PM EDT up reply actions
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