Fan Poll: How many points will the Toronto Maple Leafs finish 2010-11 with?
Because inquiring minds want to know...And I'd also like to put a price tag on the 2011 draft pick the Bruins are getting.
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I’m a little surprised with the results so far to be honest — does anybody care to defend their position of over 85, in serious playoff contention? Are they really better than bottom third in the East?
I see this was discussed elsewhere. I understand that maintaining the status quo in terms of talent and luck works out to 80+ points or so. What I don’t understand is the positive bias to the vote distribution. Who exactly thinks the team is significantly improved, unless you’re planning on significantly positive “luck?”
Goals against
should be reduced by a wide margin. Despite their not so stellar 3-7-11 record Gabe mentioned previously, they reduced their GAA during the post olympic break to 2.67 (in regulation) and 2.71 if you include their one OT loss. That would have their D on par with the likes of Nashville and Philadelphia from last season… around mid table.
As for goals for, that’s a bit difficult to get a handle on at this point. If you assume the Leafs forward group is atrocious (as many are opining), then you could argue in favour of a large drop off in production. At the end of last season after the Olympics they averaged 2.10 GF per game in regulation. That would be far and away the lowest goal production of ANY NHL franchise. Of course that includes a stretch where the team’s PP was absolutely, unbelievably abysmal. They had only 5 power play goals in the last 21 games of the season, and 3 of those came in a single game (against Edmonton). They produced at a ridiculously bad 6% clip. No NHL franchise will be that bad over the course of an entire season, so you shouldn’t anticipate their goal scoring totals to be quite as bad as they were during that 21 game stretch to close out the year.
In the end, it is PLAUSIBLE that they will score in the bottom 3rd offensively, and around mid-table defensively. That should combine to give them around 85 points… above or below that is a guessing game based on OT and Shootout performances, and to close out last year they did well in that regard, but who knows right?
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 23, 2010 7:44 PM EDT up reply actions
Oh and in regards to offense
they should improve for a few reasons – 1) the team’s forward group is generally speaking young, and improving. 2) the likes of Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak, Nikolai Kulemin, Dion Phaneuf, et al will have a full training camp to play and practice together.
Really if you go solely based on past production they’d suck horribly. Luckily odds are good that SOME of their young talent will continue to improve with increased opportunity, coaching, and confidence.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 23, 2010 7:47 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t follow how you claim the Leafs offense to be historically unproductive post-Olympics last season, but also claim that they will only be in the bottom third next season. Shouldn’t a historically poor offense be expected to be the worst in the league?
"historically poor"
in the light of having only a 6% PP is where I drew the line. The chances of them maintaining a 6% PP all season long is virtually nil. Assuming they provide only a 12% PP next season, that would likely provide them with 37 pp goals all season. They had 5 goals in 83 chances post lockout and produced 2.10 goals per game. If you increase that to a still atrocious (but more realistic over the long haul – despite being the worst in the NHL at the aforementioned 12%) 10 goals in 83 chances, that would have increased their output to 2.33 goals for per game… still bottom of the NHL, but approaching the realm of NHL level.
If you increase the production to 15% on the PP, that would have raised their production to 2.43… which is now getting them above 30th in the NHL.
The PP really is where most of this conversation starts and ends for me. If you EXPECT it to be a 6% travesty for an entire season, then be my guest and assume they will have historically low offensive production. I personally don’t anticipate a team featuring Tomas Kaberle, Dion Phaneuf, Kris Versteeg, and Phil Kessel to end up with a 6% power play.
"Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm."
- Sir Winston Churchill
I'm pretty sure he's talking about the Leafs.
by Steve Burtch on Aug 23, 2010 8:46 PM EDT up reply actions
I said 85-89, though I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if they finished in the 80-85 range. If I had the option, 80-89 is what I would’ve picked.
Basically, the playoff cut is at what, 90 points, right? I’m figuring the Leafs to be in the 10th or 11th seed range – I don’t think they’ll be “seriously” in the playoff hunt, but they’ll be near the bottom of that group fighting to squeak in the last couple spots. Kind of like Minnesota in the West last year, IIRC. I would say 85 points is a pretty decent guess.
It’s not really that I think they’ll particularly improve – I just think the 85-ish range is about where a not very good but not entirely atrocious team will end up. They won’t be scoring too much, but they should see some improvement in goals against (both from the defense and goaltending), and in a weak Eastern Conference, that’s probably enough to get you out of the very bottom of the basement. “shit happens” could easily push them in either direction though.
http://sacrificethebody.blogspot.com/
Sacrifice the Body - Examining the NHL through statistical analysis, reasoned thought, and blind conjecture.
For me, a big part of the difference is expecting that the Leafs have average goaltending this year on both the PK (.866) and at EV (.917). Average netminding would have saved them 15 goals on the PK last season and another 13 goals at EV, which accounts for more than half of their negative goal differential. If the Leafs also had an average shooting percentage at EV (8.3%) they would have scored an extra 21 goals last year.
I don’t think it’s unreasonable to expect the Leafs to have average goaltending and an average shooting percentage with similar territorial play to a year ago. Should they accomplish that, their goal differential should be close to even, something between +5 and -15 probably. That’s usually good for 85 to 95 points.
Bingo. The key issue for the Leafs is to figure out if their abysmal PDO will “progress” to the mean, or if there is something unusual about the Leafs that they consistently give up better than normal shots and take worse than normal ones.
Leafs fans always thought they were undone by abysmal goaltending. Giguere/Gustavsson should be able to provide league average goaltending, we’ll see if the sv% follows.
by The '67 Sound on Aug 26, 2010 9:28 AM EDT up reply actions
is timeoneice saying that the Leafs were a .540 fenwick team in close situations last year?
I believe it is. Toronto has no problem controlling shots, but they do strange things (no defensive shell when leading) that keep them from winning. Plus they had brutal goaltending and limited shooting talent. It’s the opposite of Colorado – they’re a not-bad team that does the things you need to do to lose.
they’re a not-bad team that does the things you need to do to lose.
Now if that isn’t the new Leafs slogan I don’t know what is.
There's always money in the banana stand.
A drinking team with a hockey problem.
by nhlcheapshot on Aug 26, 2010 7:55 AM EDT up reply actions

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