Fan Poll: How many points will the Toronto Maple Leafs finish 2010-11 with?

I see this was discussed elsewhere. I understand that maintaining the status quo in terms of talent and luck works out to 80+ points or so. What I don’t understand is the positive bias to the vote distribution. Who exactly thinks the team is significantly improved, unless you’re planning on significantly positive “luck?”

should be reduced by a wide margin. Despite their not so stellar 3-7-11 record Gabe mentioned previously, they reduced their GAA during the post olympic break to 2.67 (in regulation) and 2.71 if you include their one OT loss. That would have their D on par with the likes of Nashville and Philadelphia from last season… around mid table.

As for goals for, that’s a bit difficult to get a handle on at this point. If you assume the Leafs forward group is atrocious (as many are opining), then you could argue in favour of a large drop off in production. At the end of last season after the Olympics they averaged 2.10 GF per game in regulation. That would be far and away the lowest goal production of ANY NHL franchise. Of course that includes a stretch where the team’s PP was absolutely, unbelievably abysmal. They had only 5 power play goals in the last 21 games of the season, and 3 of those came in a single game (against Edmonton). They produced at a ridiculously bad 6% clip. No NHL franchise will be that bad over the course of an entire season, so you shouldn’t anticipate their goal scoring totals to be quite as bad as they were during that 21 game stretch to close out the year.

In the end, it is PLAUSIBLE that they will score in the bottom 3rd offensively, and around mid-table defensively. That should combine to give them around 85 points… above or below that is a guessing game based on OT and Shootout performances, and to close out last year they did well in that regard, but who knows right?

I said 85-89, though I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if they finished in the 80-85 range. If I had the option, 80-89 is what I would’ve picked.

Basically, the playoff cut is at what, 90 points, right? I’m figuring the Leafs to be in the 10th or 11th seed range – I don’t think they’ll be “seriously” in the playoff hunt, but they’ll be near the bottom of that group fighting to squeak in the last couple spots. Kind of like Minnesota in the West last year, IIRC. I would say 85 points is a pretty decent guess.

It’s not really that I think they’ll particularly improve – I just think the 85-ish range is about where a not very good but not entirely atrocious team will end up. They won’t be scoring too much, but they should see some improvement in goals against (both from the defense and goaltending), and in a weak Eastern Conference, that’s probably enough to get you out of the very bottom of the basement. “shit happens” could easily push them in either direction though.

Bingo. The key issue for the Leafs is to figure out if their abysmal PDO will “progress” to the mean, or if there is something unusual about the Leafs that they consistently give up better than normal shots and take worse than normal ones.

Leafs fans always thought they were undone by abysmal goaltending. Giguere/Gustavsson should be able to provide league average goaltending, we’ll see if the sv% follows.

I believe it is. Toronto has no problem controlling shots, but they do strange things (no defensive shell when leading) that keep them from winning. Plus they had brutal goaltending and limited shooting talent. It’s the opposite of Colorado – they’re a not-bad team that does the things you need to do to lose.