English Premier League Home/Road Territory Stats 2009-10
by Hawerchuk on Aug 10, 2010 6:50 PM EDT
in Zzz...Soccer
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You'll have to take my word for it for the moment, but one of the best indicators of a team's ability is the percentage of territory that it owned on the road with the score tied. What do I mean by 'percentage of territory'? Essentially, this is a measure of both ball possession and location during a game. The more passes you complete into dangerous areas when the game is tied, the better your team is.
Here's the 2009-10 table for the EPL, ranked by road territory%:
| W | L | D | Road% | Home% | Road Mins/G Tied | Home Mins/G Tied | |
| Chelsea | 27 | 6 | 5 | 65.4 | 68.6 | 46.5 | 35.5 |
| Arsenal | 23 | 9 | 6 | 63.5 | 65.2 | 47.3 | 42.0 |
| Man United | 27 | 7 | 4 | 60.6 | 65.2 | 56.8 | 38.3 |
| Liverpool | 18 | 11 | 9 | 58.0 | 65.6 | 63.1 | 37.9 |
| Spurs | 21 | 10 | 7 | 51.3 | 60.2 | 45.4 | 37.6 |
| Everton | 16 | 9 | 13 | 47.5 | 59.5 | 47.8 | 61.1 |
| Man City | 18 | 7 | 13 | 46.7 | 55.3 | 50.8 | 44.1 |
| Wigan | 9 | 20 | 9 | 46.5 | 55.5 | 42.3 | 59.6 |
| West Ham | 8 | 19 | 11 | 46.0 | 46.4 | 44.7 | 49.1 |
| Aston Villa | 17 | 8 | 13 | 45.8 | 50.8 | 54.8 | 53.0 |
| Sunderland | 11 | 16 | 11 | 44.6 | 47.7 | 33.2 | 33.5 |
| Blackburn | 13 | 14 | 11 | 42.6 | 43.8 | 44.4 | 46.6 |
| Birmingham | 13 | 14 | 11 | 41.2 | 44.7 | 41.4 | 63.3 |
| Wolverhampton | 9 | 18 | 11 | 41.1 | 49.2 | 39.6 | 47.2 |
| Fulham | 12 | 16 | 10 | 40.5 | 51.2 | 44.5 | 48.7 |
| Burnley | 8 | 24 | 6 | 40.3 | 49.4 | 38.7 | 41.9 |
| Portsmouth | 7 | 24 | 7 | 40.1 | 47.7 | 52.5 | 44.7 |
| Bolton | 10 | 19 | 9 | 39.9 | 43.7 | 35.3 | 44.3 |
| Stoke | 11 | 13 | 14 | 38.0 | 37.1 | 62.9 | 54.3 |
| Hull | 6 | 20 | 12 | 36.8 | 40.5 | 41.2 | 50.8 |
| Totals | 47.7 | 52.3 | 46.7 | 46.7 |
I'll delve more into the details of these advanced metrics in the coming days...
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Off topic
Analysts in hockey talk about teams facing adversity during the season being better prepared in the playoffs. Do you have the man games lost to injury data? It could be interesting to see whether teams that make deep playoff runs lose critical players and/or lots of players for extended periods of time.
On topic—like you said before, it’s quite clear that there are four “elite” EPL squads. I didn’t expect Spurs to be so high though (then again, I’m not much of a soccer fan).
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
матовая Клими, Михал нуивирт ваш папа теперь
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Stupid question: why on the road? Recording bias?
Say a single team has an “unfair” advantage at home because they know the field, weather, etc. That’ll still show up in their record, unless you’re trying to figure out how well teams will do at a neutral location.
I don’t think there are recording biases because the data is recorded by a central agency as opposed to home scorers. But I think people have established that there are some home biases in the EPL (refereeing, etc…) so road data seemed like a better place to start. Obviously, it’s only 19 games, so 38 games, both road and home, may be a better predictor.
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