Shootout Save Percentage

The final chapter.

I finish my look at save percentages to shootout data.  Once again I calculated logits from the save percentages.  In my other analyses, I removed goalies with logits that were infinity or undefined.  In this analysis, I ran the data two ways.  First, the usual way, removing these goalies.  I  was concerned that removing them would introduce bias given the much smaller samples sizes and smaller number of shots so I ran the data a second time estimating a logit for these goalies.  A save percentage of 1.000 gives a logit of infinity.  I assumed the next shot faced would be a goal, calculated the resulting logit, and then multiplied by 2.  Hence, for a goalie who is 10 for 10, I assigned a logit of LN(10/1)*2 or 4.605.  Similarly, a save percentage of 0.000 gives a logit that is undefined.  I assumed the next shot faced would be a save,  calculated the resulting logit, and then multiplied by 2.  For a goalie who is 0 for 4 (Looking at you, Brian Boucher of 2006), I assigned a logit of LN(1/4)*2 or -2.773.  Fortunately, the two methods gave essentially the same results.  Since I use shots faced as a weighting factor, and all of these goalies had faced only a handful of shots, the difference in the two approaches was minimal.

Team Effect

Taken by itself, there is no Team effect.

> LinearModel.41 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ Team, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)
> anova(LinearModel.41)

Analysis of Variance Table
Response: ASOLogit
           Df  Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Team       29  214.69  7.4030   1.116 0.3164
Residuals 283 1877.31  6.6336               

 

Year Effect

Taken by itself, there is no Year effect.

> LinearModel.42 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ Year, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)
> anova(LinearModel.42)

Analysis of Variance Table
Response: ASOLogit
           Df  Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Year        1    0.65  0.6539  0.0972 0.7554
Residuals 311 2091.34  6.7246                

 

Goalie Effect

Taken by itself, there is a significant goaltender effect.

> LinearModel.43 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ LastFirst, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)
> anova(LinearModel.43)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: ASOLogit
           Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value   Pr(>F)   
LastFirst 108  989.7  9.1639  1.6959 0.000641 ***
Residuals 204 1102.3  5.4034                     


For the coefficients of  the final model, see the Appendix below.

Conclusions

Not surprisingly, shootout save percentage is best predicted by goaltender.  Team and Year do not add resolving power to the model.  The model predicts about 47% of the total variability seen in the data.

Appendix

Coefficients:

Estimate

Std.Error

tvalue

Pr(>|t|)

LastFirst[T.KolesnikVitaly]

3.20E+000

1.04E+000

3.088

0.002

LastFirst[T.BernierJonathan]

2.89E+000

1.10E+000

2.636

0.009

LastFirst[T.GreissThomas]

2.89E+000

1.10E+000

2.636

0.009

LastFirst[T.HolmqvistJohan]

1.29E+000

6.81E-001

1.891

0.060

LastFirst[T.DenisMarc]

1.09E+000

6.57E-001

1.655

0.099

LastFirst[T.HedbergJohan]

7.82E-001

6.05E-001

1.293

0.197

LastFirst[T.PrusekMartin]

1.25E+000

9.88E-001

1.267

0.207

LastFirst[T.GaronMathieu]

7.64E-001

6.04E-001

1.265

0.207

LastFirst[T.NiemiAntti]

7.68E-001

6.85E-001

1.121

0.263

LastFirst[T.JohnsonBrent]

6.72E-001

6.57E-001

1.022

0.308

LastFirst[T.RinnePekka]

5.08E-001

6.15E-001

0.825

0.410

LastFirst[T.LehtonenKari]

4.83E-001

5.98E-001

0.808

0.420

LastFirst[T.TheodoreJose]

4.64E-001

6.13E-001

0.758

0.450

LastFirst[T.DubielewiczWade]

5.35E-001

7.25E-001

0.738

0.461

LastFirst[T.LundqvistHenrik]

4.16E-001

5.73E-001

0.726

0.469

LastFirst[T.SabourinDany]

4.35E-001

6.48E-001

0.671

0.503

LastFirst[T.JosephCurtis]

4.12E-001

6.53E-001

0.631

0.529

LastFirst[T.ThomasTim]

3.64E-001

5.79E-001

0.629

0.530

LastFirst[T.ClemmensenScott]

3.97E-001

6.62E-001

0.599

0.550

LastFirst[T.DiPietroRick]

3.52E-001

5.90E-001

0.596

0.552

LastFirst[T.BrustBarry]

6.91E-001

1.18E+000

0.588

0.557

LastFirst[T.HalakJaroslav]

3.75E-001

6.62E-001

0.566

0.572

LastFirst[T.FernandezManny]

3.19E-001

6.21E-001

0.513

0.608

LastFirst[T.FleuryMarc-Andre]

3.06E-001

5.99E-001

0.510

0.610

LastFirst[T.HillerJonas]

2.99E-001

6.14E-001

0.486

0.627

LastFirst[T.MillerRyan]

2.50E-001

5.77E-001

0.434

0.665

LastFirst[T.VarlamovSemyon]

2.84E-001

6.81E-001

0.417

0.677

LastFirst[T.DeslauriersJeff]

2.67E-001

6.60E-001

0.405

0.686

LastFirst[T.BrodeurMartin]

2.29E-001

5.74E-001

0.399

0.690

LastFirst[T.LaBarberaJason]

2.45E-001

6.55E-001

0.374

0.709

LastFirst[T.HardingJosh]

2.47E-001

6.85E-001

0.361

0.719

LastFirst[T.LuongoRoberto]

2.02E-001

5.79E-001

0.349

0.728

LastFirst[T.PriceCarey]

2.03E-001

6.11E-001

0.332

0.740

LastFirst[T.TellqvistMikael]

2.39E-001

7.47E-001

0.320

0.749

LastFirst[T.DubnykDevan]

2.84E-001

8.90E-001

0.319

0.750

LastFirst[T.NiittymakiAntero]

1.91E-001

6.00E-001

0.318

0.751

LastFirst[T.LegaceManny]

1.89E-001

6.01E-001

0.315

0.753

LastFirst[T.SchaeferNolan]

4.04E-001

1.29E+000

0.314

0.754

LastFirst[T.RolosonDwayne]

1.84E-001

5.87E-001

0.313

0.754

LastFirst[T.MasonChris]

1.73E-001

6.04E-001

0.286

0.775

LastFirst[T.TurcoMarty]

1.60E-001

5.73E-001

0.280

0.780

LastFirst[T.ValiquetteSteve]

1.92E-001

7.07E-001

0.272

0.786

LastFirst[T.GerberMartin]

1.29E-001

6.26E-001

0.206

0.837

LastFirst[T.RaskTuukka]

1.38E-001

6.81E-001

0.203

0.840

LastFirst[T.BacashihuaJason]

1.62E-001

9.17E-001

0.176

0.860

LastFirst[T.HowardJimmy]

8.20E-002

6.33E-001

0.130

0.897

LastFirst[T.QuickJonathan]

4.74E-002

6.19E-001

0.077

0.939

LastFirst[T.ThibaultJocelyn]

3.22E-002

7.07E-001

0.045

0.964

LastFirst[T.LeneveuDavid]

5.97E-016

1.45E+000

0.000

1.000

LastFirst[T.EllisDan]

-2.25E-003

6.60E-001

-0.003

0.997

LastFirst[T.ToivonenHannu]

-3.06E-002

7.55E-001

-0.040

0.968

LastFirst[T.BryzgalovIlya]

-3.85E-002

5.98E-001

-0.064

0.949

LastFirst[T.AubinJean-Sebastien]

-5.53E-002

7.55E-001

-0.073

0.942

LastFirst[T.VokounTomas]

-6.23E-002

5.81E-001

-0.107

0.915

LastFirst[T.GiguereJean-Sebastien]

-6.50E-002

5.90E-001

-0.110

0.912

LastFirst[T.ElliottBrian]

-7.96E-002

6.68E-001

-0.119

0.905

LastFirst[T.MasonSteve]

-8.90E-002

6.26E-001

-0.142

0.887

LastFirst[T.LeclairePascal]

-9.15E-002

6.15E-001

-0.149

0.882

LastFirst[T.KhabibulinNikolai]

-1.44E-001

5.96E-001

-0.242

0.809

LastFirst[T.JohnsonChad]

-2.90E-001

1.18E+000

-0.247

0.805

LastFirst[T.KolzigOlie]

-1.48E-001

5.98E-001

-0.247

0.805

LastFirst[T.NabokovEvgeni]

-1.50E-001

5.81E-001

-0.259

0.796

LastFirst[T.RaycroftAndrew]

-1.63E-001

6.25E-001

-0.261

0.795

LastFirst[T.ErsbergErik]

-1.76E-001

6.48E-001

-0.271

0.787

LastFirst[T.NorrenaFredrik]

-2.15E-001

6.78E-001

-0.317

0.752

LastFirst[T.HasekDominik]

-2.10E-001

6.50E-001

-0.322

0.748

LastFirst[T.GrahameJohn]

-2.42E-001

7.19E-001

-0.337

0.737

LastFirst[T.BelfourEd]

-2.24E-001

6.62E-001

-0.338

0.736

LastFirst[T.OsgoodChris]

-2.17E-001

6.17E-001

-0.352

0.725

LastFirst[T.MacDonaldJoey]

-2.90E-001

8.13E-001

-0.357

0.722

LastFirst[T.CloutierDan]

-4.24E-001

1.10E+000

-0.387

0.699

LastFirst[T.GustavssonJonas]

-4.09E-001

1.04E+000

-0.395

0.693

LastFirst[T.ShieldsSteve]

-6.95E-001

1.73E+000

-0.401

0.689

LastFirst[T.LalimePatrick]

-2.64E-001

6.48E-001

-0.407

0.684

LastFirst[T.WeekesKevin]

-3.21E-001

7.39E-001

-0.434

0.665

LastFirst[T.HuetCristobal]

-2.69E-001

6.12E-001

-0.439

0.661

LastFirst[T.AndersonCraig]

-2.72E-001

6.13E-001

-0.443

0.658

LastFirst[T.AuldAlex]

-2.88E-001

6.31E-001

-0.457

0.648

LastFirst[T.BackstromNiklas]

-3.11E-001

5.90E-001

-0.528

0.598

LastFirst[T.BishopBen]

-6.95E-001

1.29E+000

-0.541

0.589

LastFirst[T.McLennanJamie]

-6.95E-001

1.29E+000

-0.541

0.589

LastFirst[T.MunroAdam]

-6.95E-001

1.29E+000

-0.541

0.589

LastFirst[T.RamoKarri]

-4.74E-001

8.13E-001

-0.584

0.560

LastFirst[T.BudajPeter]

-3.69E-001

6.00E-001

-0.615

0.540

LastFirst[T.BoucherBrian]

-5.28E-001

8.46E-001

-0.624

0.533

LastFirst[T.EmeryRay]

-4.37E-001

6.62E-001

-0.660

0.510

LastFirst[T.WardCam]

-4.14E-001

6.25E-001

-0.663

0.508

LastFirst[T.ConklinTy]

-4.52E-001

6.60E-001

-0.685

0.494

LastFirst[T.GarnettMichael]

-6.95E-001

9.88E-001

-0.704

0.482

LastFirst[T.KiprusoffMiikka]

-4.43E-001

5.97E-001

-0.743

0.458

LastFirst[T.SmithMike]

-4.96E-001

6.50E-001

-0.763

0.446

LastFirst[T.BironMartin]

-5.09E-001

6.29E-001

-0.809

0.419

LastFirst[T.DunhamMike]

-7.21E-001

8.66E-001

-0.832

0.406

LastFirst[T.BurkeSean]

-6.33E-001

6.81E-001

-0.930

0.354

LastFirst[T.LeightonMichael]

-1.10E+000

1.18E+000

-0.936

0.350

LastFirst[T.ClimieMatt]

-1.39E+000

1.45E+000

-0.959

0.339

LastFirst[T.CrawfordCorey]

-1.39E+000

1.45E+000

-0.959

0.339

LastFirst[T.DivisReinhard]

-1.39E+000

1.45E+000

-0.959

0.339

LastFirst[T.ToskalaVesa]

-6.02E-001

6.26E-001

-0.962

0.337

LastFirst[T.PavelecOndrej]

-8.80E-001

8.90E-001

-0.989

0.324

LastFirst[T.SanfordCurtis]

-6.81E-001

6.74E-001

-1.010

0.314

LastFirst[T.MarkkanenJussi]

-8.05E-001

7.65E-001

-1.053

0.294

LastFirst[T.EscheRobert]

-9.72E-001

9.17E-001

-1.060

0.290

LastFirst[T.CaronSebastien]

-1.10E+000

9.17E-001

-1.200

0.232

LastFirst[T.PoggeJustin]

-2.08E+000

1.73E+000

-1.201

0.231

LastFirst[T.CassiviFrederic]

-1.39E+000

1.10E+000

-1.268

0.206

LastFirst[T.DanisYann]

-1.77E+000

9.88E-001

-1.794

0.074

LastFirst[T.SchneiderCory]

-2.89E+000

1.45E+000

-1.995

0.047


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