The final chapter.
I finish my look at save percentages to shootout data. Once again I calculated logits from the save percentages. In my other analyses, I removed goalies with logits that were infinity or undefined. In this analysis, I ran the data two ways. First, the usual way, removing these goalies. I was concerned that removing them would introduce bias given the much smaller samples sizes and smaller number of shots so I ran the data a second time estimating a logit for these goalies. A save percentage of 1.000 gives a logit of infinity. I assumed the next shot faced would be a goal, calculated the resulting logit, and then multiplied by 2. Hence, for a goalie who is 10 for 10, I assigned a logit of LN(10/1)*2 or 4.605. Similarly, a save percentage of 0.000 gives a logit that is undefined. I assumed the next shot faced would be a save, calculated the resulting logit, and then multiplied by 2. For a goalie who is 0 for 4 (Looking at you, Brian Boucher of 2006), I assigned a logit of LN(1/4)*2 or -2.773. Fortunately, the two methods gave essentially the same results. Since I use shots faced as a weighting factor, and all of these goalies had faced only a handful of shots, the difference in the two approaches was minimal.
Team Effect
Taken by itself, there is no Team effect.
> LinearModel.41 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ Team, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)
> anova(LinearModel.41)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: ASOLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Team 29 214.69 7.4030 1.116 0.3164
Residuals 283 1877.31 6.6336
Year Effect
Taken by itself, there is no Year effect.
> LinearModel.42 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ Year, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)
> anova(LinearModel.42)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: ASOLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
Year 1 0.65 0.6539 0.0972 0.7554
Residuals 311 2091.34 6.7246
Goalie Effect
Taken by itself, there is a significant goaltender effect.
> LinearModel.43 <- lm(ASOLogit ~ LastFirst, data=SOData, weights=TotalSA)
> anova(LinearModel.43)
Analysis of Variance Table
Response: ASOLogit
Df Sum Sq Mean Sq F value Pr(>F)
LastFirst 108 989.7 9.1639 1.6959 0.000641 ***
Residuals 204 1102.3 5.4034
For the coefficients of the final model, see the Appendix below.
Conclusions
Not surprisingly, shootout save percentage is best predicted by goaltender. Team and Year do not add resolving power to the model. The model predicts about 47% of the total variability seen in the data.
Appendix
|
Coefficients: |
Estimate |
Std.Error |
tvalue |
Pr(>|t|) |
|
LastFirst[T.KolesnikVitaly] |
3.20E+000 |
1.04E+000 |
3.088 |
0.002 |
|
LastFirst[T.BernierJonathan] |
2.89E+000 |
1.10E+000 |
2.636 |
0.009 |
|
LastFirst[T.GreissThomas] |
2.89E+000 |
1.10E+000 |
2.636 |
0.009 |
|
LastFirst[T.HolmqvistJohan] |
1.29E+000 |
6.81E-001 |
1.891 |
0.060 |
|
LastFirst[T.DenisMarc] |
1.09E+000 |
6.57E-001 |
1.655 |
0.099 |
|
LastFirst[T.HedbergJohan] |
7.82E-001 |
6.05E-001 |
1.293 |
0.197 |
|
LastFirst[T.PrusekMartin] |
1.25E+000 |
9.88E-001 |
1.267 |
0.207 |
|
LastFirst[T.GaronMathieu] |
7.64E-001 |
6.04E-001 |
1.265 |
0.207 |
|
LastFirst[T.NiemiAntti] |
7.68E-001 |
6.85E-001 |
1.121 |
0.263 |
|
LastFirst[T.JohnsonBrent] |
6.72E-001 |
6.57E-001 |
1.022 |
0.308 |
|
LastFirst[T.RinnePekka] |
5.08E-001 |
6.15E-001 |
0.825 |
0.410 |
|
LastFirst[T.LehtonenKari] |
4.83E-001 |
5.98E-001 |
0.808 |
0.420 |
|
LastFirst[T.TheodoreJose] |
4.64E-001 |
6.13E-001 |
0.758 |
0.450 |
|
LastFirst[T.DubielewiczWade] |
5.35E-001 |
7.25E-001 |
0.738 |
0.461 |
|
LastFirst[T.LundqvistHenrik] |
4.16E-001 |
5.73E-001 |
0.726 |
0.469 |
|
LastFirst[T.SabourinDany] |
4.35E-001 |
6.48E-001 |
0.671 |
0.503 |
|
LastFirst[T.JosephCurtis] |
4.12E-001 |
6.53E-001 |
0.631 |
0.529 |
|
LastFirst[T.ThomasTim] |
3.64E-001 |
5.79E-001 |
0.629 |
0.530 |
|
LastFirst[T.ClemmensenScott] |
3.97E-001 |
6.62E-001 |
0.599 |
0.550 |
|
LastFirst[T.DiPietroRick] |
3.52E-001 |
5.90E-001 |
0.596 |
0.552 |
|
LastFirst[T.BrustBarry] |
6.91E-001 |
1.18E+000 |
0.588 |
0.557 |
|
LastFirst[T.HalakJaroslav] |
3.75E-001 |
6.62E-001 |
0.566 |
0.572 |
|
LastFirst[T.FernandezManny] |
3.19E-001 |
6.21E-001 |
0.513 |
0.608 |
|
LastFirst[T.FleuryMarc-Andre] |
3.06E-001 |
5.99E-001 |
0.510 |
0.610 |
|
LastFirst[T.HillerJonas] |
2.99E-001 |
6.14E-001 |
0.486 |
0.627 |
|
LastFirst[T.MillerRyan] |
2.50E-001 |
5.77E-001 |
0.434 |
0.665 |
|
LastFirst[T.VarlamovSemyon] |
2.84E-001 |
6.81E-001 |
0.417 |
0.677 |
|
LastFirst[T.DeslauriersJeff] |
2.67E-001 |
6.60E-001 |
0.405 |
0.686 |
|
LastFirst[T.BrodeurMartin] |
2.29E-001 |
5.74E-001 |
0.399 |
0.690 |
|
LastFirst[T.LaBarberaJason] |
2.45E-001 |
6.55E-001 |
0.374 |
0.709 |
|
LastFirst[T.HardingJosh] |
2.47E-001 |
6.85E-001 |
0.361 |
0.719 |
|
LastFirst[T.LuongoRoberto] |
2.02E-001 |
5.79E-001 |
0.349 |
0.728 |
|
LastFirst[T.PriceCarey] |
2.03E-001 |
6.11E-001 |
0.332 |
0.740 |
|
LastFirst[T.TellqvistMikael] |
2.39E-001 |
7.47E-001 |
0.320 |
0.749 |
|
LastFirst[T.DubnykDevan] |
2.84E-001 |
8.90E-001 |
0.319 |
0.750 |
|
LastFirst[T.NiittymakiAntero] |
1.91E-001 |
6.00E-001 |
0.318 |
0.751 |
|
LastFirst[T.LegaceManny] |
1.89E-001 |
6.01E-001 |
0.315 |
0.753 |
|
LastFirst[T.SchaeferNolan] |
4.04E-001 |
1.29E+000 |
0.314 |
0.754 |
|
LastFirst[T.RolosonDwayne] |
1.84E-001 |
5.87E-001 |
0.313 |
0.754 |
|
LastFirst[T.MasonChris] |
1.73E-001 |
6.04E-001 |
0.286 |
0.775 |
|
LastFirst[T.TurcoMarty] |
1.60E-001 |
5.73E-001 |
0.280 |
0.780 |
|
LastFirst[T.ValiquetteSteve] |
1.92E-001 |
7.07E-001 |
0.272 |
0.786 |
|
LastFirst[T.GerberMartin] |
1.29E-001 |
6.26E-001 |
0.206 |
0.837 |
|
LastFirst[T.RaskTuukka] |
1.38E-001 |
6.81E-001 |
0.203 |
0.840 |
|
LastFirst[T.BacashihuaJason] |
1.62E-001 |
9.17E-001 |
0.176 |
0.860 |
|
LastFirst[T.HowardJimmy] |
8.20E-002 |
6.33E-001 |
0.130 |
0.897 |
|
LastFirst[T.QuickJonathan] |
4.74E-002 |
6.19E-001 |
0.077 |
0.939 |
|
LastFirst[T.ThibaultJocelyn] |
3.22E-002 |
7.07E-001 |
0.045 |
0.964 |
|
LastFirst[T.LeneveuDavid] |
5.97E-016 |
1.45E+000 |
0.000 |
1.000 |
|
LastFirst[T.EllisDan] |
-2.25E-003 |
6.60E-001 |
-0.003 |
0.997 |
|
LastFirst[T.ToivonenHannu] |
-3.06E-002 |
7.55E-001 |
-0.040 |
0.968 |
|
LastFirst[T.BryzgalovIlya] |
-3.85E-002 |
5.98E-001 |
-0.064 |
0.949 |
|
LastFirst[T.AubinJean-Sebastien] |
-5.53E-002 |
7.55E-001 |
-0.073 |
0.942 |
|
LastFirst[T.VokounTomas] |
-6.23E-002 |
5.81E-001 |
-0.107 |
0.915 |
|
LastFirst[T.GiguereJean-Sebastien] |
-6.50E-002 |
5.90E-001 |
-0.110 |
0.912 |
|
LastFirst[T.ElliottBrian] |
-7.96E-002 |
6.68E-001 |
-0.119 |
0.905 |
|
LastFirst[T.MasonSteve] |
-8.90E-002 |
6.26E-001 |
-0.142 |
0.887 |
|
LastFirst[T.LeclairePascal] |
-9.15E-002 |
6.15E-001 |
-0.149 |
0.882 |
|
LastFirst[T.KhabibulinNikolai] |
-1.44E-001 |
5.96E-001 |
-0.242 |
0.809 |
|
LastFirst[T.JohnsonChad] |
-2.90E-001 |
1.18E+000 |
-0.247 |
0.805 |
|
LastFirst[T.KolzigOlie] |
-1.48E-001 |
5.98E-001 |
-0.247 |
0.805 |
|
LastFirst[T.NabokovEvgeni] |
-1.50E-001 |
5.81E-001 |
-0.259 |
0.796 |
|
LastFirst[T.RaycroftAndrew] |
-1.63E-001 |
6.25E-001 |
-0.261 |
0.795 |
|
LastFirst[T.ErsbergErik] |
-1.76E-001 |
6.48E-001 |
-0.271 |
0.787 |
|
LastFirst[T.NorrenaFredrik] |
-2.15E-001 |
6.78E-001 |
-0.317 |
0.752 |
|
LastFirst[T.HasekDominik] |
-2.10E-001 |
6.50E-001 |
-0.322 |
0.748 |
|
LastFirst[T.GrahameJohn] |
-2.42E-001 |
7.19E-001 |
-0.337 |
0.737 |
|
LastFirst[T.BelfourEd] |
-2.24E-001 |
6.62E-001 |
-0.338 |
0.736 |
|
LastFirst[T.OsgoodChris] |
-2.17E-001 |
6.17E-001 |
-0.352 |
0.725 |
|
LastFirst[T.MacDonaldJoey] |
-2.90E-001 |
8.13E-001 |
-0.357 |
0.722 |
|
LastFirst[T.CloutierDan] |
-4.24E-001 |
1.10E+000 |
-0.387 |
0.699 |
|
LastFirst[T.GustavssonJonas] |
-4.09E-001 |
1.04E+000 |
-0.395 |
0.693 |
|
LastFirst[T.ShieldsSteve] |
-6.95E-001 |
1.73E+000 |
-0.401 |
0.689 |
|
LastFirst[T.LalimePatrick] |
-2.64E-001 |
6.48E-001 |
-0.407 |
0.684 |
|
LastFirst[T.WeekesKevin] |
-3.21E-001 |
7.39E-001 |
-0.434 |
0.665 |
|
LastFirst[T.HuetCristobal] |
-2.69E-001 |
6.12E-001 |
-0.439 |
0.661 |
|
LastFirst[T.AndersonCraig] |
-2.72E-001 |
6.13E-001 |
-0.443 |
0.658 |
|
LastFirst[T.AuldAlex] |
-2.88E-001 |
6.31E-001 |
-0.457 |
0.648 |
|
LastFirst[T.BackstromNiklas] |
-3.11E-001 |
5.90E-001 |
-0.528 |
0.598 |
|
LastFirst[T.BishopBen] |
-6.95E-001 |
1.29E+000 |
-0.541 |
0.589 |
|
LastFirst[T.McLennanJamie] |
-6.95E-001 |
1.29E+000 |
-0.541 |
0.589 |
|
LastFirst[T.MunroAdam] |
-6.95E-001 |
1.29E+000 |
-0.541 |
0.589 |
|
LastFirst[T.RamoKarri] |
-4.74E-001 |
8.13E-001 |
-0.584 |
0.560 |
|
LastFirst[T.BudajPeter] |
-3.69E-001 |
6.00E-001 |
-0.615 |
0.540 |
|
LastFirst[T.BoucherBrian] |
-5.28E-001 |
8.46E-001 |
-0.624 |
0.533 |
|
LastFirst[T.EmeryRay] |
-4.37E-001 |
6.62E-001 |
-0.660 |
0.510 |
|
LastFirst[T.WardCam] |
-4.14E-001 |
6.25E-001 |
-0.663 |
0.508 |
|
LastFirst[T.ConklinTy] |
-4.52E-001 |
6.60E-001 |
-0.685 |
0.494 |
|
LastFirst[T.GarnettMichael] |
-6.95E-001 |
9.88E-001 |
-0.704 |
0.482 |
|
LastFirst[T.KiprusoffMiikka] |
-4.43E-001 |
5.97E-001 |
-0.743 |
0.458 |
|
LastFirst[T.SmithMike] |
-4.96E-001 |
6.50E-001 |
-0.763 |
0.446 |
|
LastFirst[T.BironMartin] |
-5.09E-001 |
6.29E-001 |
-0.809 |
0.419 |
|
LastFirst[T.DunhamMike] |
-7.21E-001 |
8.66E-001 |
-0.832 |
0.406 |
|
LastFirst[T.BurkeSean] |
-6.33E-001 |
6.81E-001 |
-0.930 |
0.354 |
|
LastFirst[T.LeightonMichael] |
-1.10E+000 |
1.18E+000 |
-0.936 |
0.350 |
|
LastFirst[T.ClimieMatt] |
-1.39E+000 |
1.45E+000 |
-0.959 |
0.339 |
|
LastFirst[T.CrawfordCorey] |
-1.39E+000 |
1.45E+000 |
-0.959 |
0.339 |
|
LastFirst[T.DivisReinhard] |
-1.39E+000 |
1.45E+000 |
-0.959 |
0.339 |
|
LastFirst[T.ToskalaVesa] |
-6.02E-001 |
6.26E-001 |
-0.962 |
0.337 |
|
LastFirst[T.PavelecOndrej] |
-8.80E-001 |
8.90E-001 |
-0.989 |
0.324 |
|
LastFirst[T.SanfordCurtis] |
-6.81E-001 |
6.74E-001 |
-1.010 |
0.314 |
|
LastFirst[T.MarkkanenJussi] |
-8.05E-001 |
7.65E-001 |
-1.053 |
0.294 |
|
LastFirst[T.EscheRobert] |
-9.72E-001 |
9.17E-001 |
-1.060 |
0.290 |
|
LastFirst[T.CaronSebastien] |
-1.10E+000 |
9.17E-001 |
-1.200 |
0.232 |
|
LastFirst[T.PoggeJustin] |
-2.08E+000 |
1.73E+000 |
-1.201 |
0.231 |
|
LastFirst[T.CassiviFrederic] |
-1.39E+000 |
1.10E+000 |
-1.268 |
0.206 |
|
LastFirst[T.DanisYann] |
-1.77E+000 |
9.88E-001 |
-1.794 |
0.074 |
|
LastFirst[T.SchneiderCory] |
-2.89E+000 |
1.45E+000 |
-1.995 |
0.047 |
