Defensive Contribution and QualComp/QualTeam

I think it makes sense to incorporate QualComp and QualTeam into DGVA.  It just doesn't make much difference.

I had been pondering whether it helped to utilize QualComp and QualTeam in computing DGVA from GAON and GAOFF. If I understand QualComp correctly, it is the average of (GFON/60 -GFOFF/60) – (GAON/60 – GAOFF/60) for all opponents faced. As such, it is in the same units as DGVA/60, and I think it makes sense to adjust GVA/60 accordingly. Presumably, I could scale DGVA/60 by multiplying by (1 + QC). It seems easier to add QC to DGVA/60. However, since QC is both offense and defense, and DGVA is just defense, I think adding 0.5*QC makes the most sense. Later, if/when I look at OGVA, I would add the other half.

 

QualTeam to me is a little less clear, since a player's performance influences the GAON/60 rates of his teammates. I'll think about whether there is a easy way to pull out the portion of QT independent of the player we are looking at. In the interim, from a symmetry standpoint if nothing else, we can subtract (to keep the signs and magnitudes correct) 0.5*QT from DGVA/60.

 

Looking at defensemen who had 20+ games last season, QC runs from +0.150 to -0.184. QT runs from +0.380 to -0..317. The ranges are greater than I would have guessed.

 

I reran the calculations using adjusted DGVA/60, and there really is not much change. The top 20 are basically the same. I listed them in Appendix A. Jack Johnson remain by far the worst, at -38.95 In looking at the differences between raw GVA and adjusted GVA, only 9 of 304 defensemen saw more than 2 goals difference. I listed the top 5 and bottom 5 in Appendix B. Zbynek Michalek goes up 3.95 due to QualTeam of -0.30. Conversely, Nicklas Lidstrom goes down 3.81 due to a QualTeam of +0.38

 

Appendix A

Top 20 Defensemen in Adjusted GVA

 

NAME

Minutes

QCOMP

QTEAM

RawGVA

AdjGVA

MARKFISTRIC

931.97

-0.09

-0.08

33.55

33.53

MARKGIORDANO

1280.84

-0.06

-0.08

20.71

21.00

MIKEWEAVER

971.74

-0.07

0.00

19.60

19.02

KEITHYANDLE

1289.86

-0.07

0.00

19.13

18.33

FRANCISBOUILLON

1296.81

-0.07

-0.01

18.80

18.22

MARCSTAAL

1474.36

0.14

0.06

16.96

17.96

TONILYDMAN

1049.89

-0.02

-0.02

17.15

17.18

ANDREWMACDONALD

751.64

0.02

0.08

17.41

17.06

JOSHGORGES

1332.50

0.01

-0.05

16.21

16.96

CHRISPRONGER

1437.46

0.10

0.18

16.77

15.85

SHELDONBROOKBANK

900.24

-0.07

-0.13

15.30

15.75

LADISLAVSMID

837.93

-0.07

0.02

16.06

15.42

KRISRUSSELL

1049.30

-0.08

-0.02

15.74

15.23

DENNISSEIDENBERG

1363.54

0.01

0.06

14.09

13.54

NICKBOYNTON

689.92

-0.03

0.03

13.80

13.43

SAMILEPISTO

1020.36

-0.05

0.03

13.60

12.93

DMITRYKULIKOV

969.68

-0.05

-0.07

12.61

12.82

RYANWILSON

874.13

-0.09

-0.09

12.38

12.37

JEFFSCHULTZ

1190.63

0.02

0.32

14.68

11.71

 

 

Appendix B

Biggest differences between Raw GVA and Adjusted GVA

 

NAME

Minutes

QCOMP

QTEAM

RawGVA

AdjGVA

Diff

ZBYNEKMICHALEK

1202.4

0.10

-0.30

-18.04

-14.09

3.95

DIONPHANEUF

1415.07

0.07

-0.10

-11.32

-9.29

2.03

RONHAINSEY

1299.2

0.09

-0.10

-3.03

-1.01

2.02

RYANSUTER

1482.56

0.03

-0.12

-8.15

-6.35

1.80

ROMANHAMRLIK

1336.5

0.06

0.30

-4.90

-7.67

-2.77

JEFFSCHULTZ

1190.63

0.02

0.32

14.68

11.71

-2.98

MIKEGREEN

1290

0.00

0.32

-7.96

-11.32

-3.36

BRIANRAFALSKI

1426.62

0.04

0.34

9.75

6.15

-3.60

NICKLASLIDSTROM

1434.18

0.06

0.38

5.26

1.45

-3.81

 

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