## Defensive Contribution and QualComp/QualTeam

I think it makes sense to incorporate QualComp and QualTeam into DGVA.  It just doesn't make much difference.

I had been pondering whether it helped to utilize QualComp and QualTeam in computing DGVA from GAON and GAOFF. If I understand QualComp correctly, it is the average of (GFON/60 -GFOFF/60) – (GAON/60 – GAOFF/60) for all opponents faced. As such, it is in the same units as DGVA/60, and I think it makes sense to adjust GVA/60 accordingly. Presumably, I could scale DGVA/60 by multiplying by (1 + QC). It seems easier to add QC to DGVA/60. However, since QC is both offense and defense, and DGVA is just defense, I think adding 0.5*QC makes the most sense. Later, if/when I look at OGVA, I would add the other half.

QualTeam to me is a little less clear, since a player's performance influences the GAON/60 rates of his teammates. I'll think about whether there is a easy way to pull out the portion of QT independent of the player we are looking at. In the interim, from a symmetry standpoint if nothing else, we can subtract (to keep the signs and magnitudes correct) 0.5*QT from DGVA/60.

Looking at defensemen who had 20+ games last season, QC runs from +0.150 to -0.184. QT runs from +0.380 to -0..317. The ranges are greater than I would have guessed.

I reran the calculations using adjusted DGVA/60, and there really is not much change. The top 20 are basically the same. I listed them in Appendix A. Jack Johnson remain by far the worst, at -38.95 In looking at the differences between raw GVA and adjusted GVA, only 9 of 304 defensemen saw more than 2 goals difference. I listed the top 5 and bottom 5 in Appendix B. Zbynek Michalek goes up 3.95 due to QualTeam of -0.30. Conversely, Nicklas Lidstrom goes down 3.81 due to a QualTeam of +0.38

Appendix A

Top 20 Defensemen in Adjusted GVA

 NAME Minutes QCOMP QTEAM RawGVA AdjGVA MARKFISTRIC 931.97 -0.09 -0.08 33.55 33.53 MARKGIORDANO 1280.84 -0.06 -0.08 20.71 21.00 MIKEWEAVER 971.74 -0.07 0.00 19.60 19.02 KEITHYANDLE 1289.86 -0.07 0.00 19.13 18.33 FRANCISBOUILLON 1296.81 -0.07 -0.01 18.80 18.22 MARCSTAAL 1474.36 0.14 0.06 16.96 17.96 TONILYDMAN 1049.89 -0.02 -0.02 17.15 17.18 ANDREWMACDONALD 751.64 0.02 0.08 17.41 17.06 JOSHGORGES 1332.50 0.01 -0.05 16.21 16.96 CHRISPRONGER 1437.46 0.10 0.18 16.77 15.85 SHELDONBROOKBANK 900.24 -0.07 -0.13 15.30 15.75 LADISLAVSMID 837.93 -0.07 0.02 16.06 15.42 KRISRUSSELL 1049.30 -0.08 -0.02 15.74 15.23 DENNISSEIDENBERG 1363.54 0.01 0.06 14.09 13.54 NICKBOYNTON 689.92 -0.03 0.03 13.80 13.43 SAMILEPISTO 1020.36 -0.05 0.03 13.60 12.93 DMITRYKULIKOV 969.68 -0.05 -0.07 12.61 12.82 RYANWILSON 874.13 -0.09 -0.09 12.38 12.37 JEFFSCHULTZ 1190.63 0.02 0.32 14.68 11.71

Appendix B

Biggest differences between Raw GVA and Adjusted GVA

 NAME Minutes QCOMP QTEAM RawGVA AdjGVA Diff ZBYNEKMICHALEK 1202.4 0.10 -0.30 -18.04 -14.09 3.95 DIONPHANEUF 1415.07 0.07 -0.10 -11.32 -9.29 2.03 RONHAINSEY 1299.2 0.09 -0.10 -3.03 -1.01 2.02 RYANSUTER 1482.56 0.03 -0.12 -8.15 -6.35 1.80 ROMANHAMRLIK 1336.5 0.06 0.30 -4.90 -7.67 -2.77 JEFFSCHULTZ 1190.63 0.02 0.32 14.68 11.71 -2.98 MIKEGREEN 1290 0.00 0.32 -7.96 -11.32 -3.36 BRIANRAFALSKI 1426.62 0.04 0.34 9.75 6.15 -3.60 NICKLASLIDSTROM 1434.18 0.06 0.38 5.26 1.45 -3.81

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