Ilya Kovalchuk signs with Devils; Financial Details unknown
by Hawerchuk on Jul 19, 2010 1:13 PM EDT
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We already discussed Ilya Kovalchuk in detail here, with the wisdom of the crowd putting his value around $6.7M per year. As in, less than Patrick Marleau. Does that seem unbelievable? Hart Trophy voters have given Marleau 17 MVP votes to Kovalchuk's 6 over the last five season.
It's less than Mikko Koivu, too. Kovalchuk's value is suppressed because he's a one-dimensional player, and no one dimension can ever be worth that much. Koivu may not be half the offensive player Kovalchuk is, but he's very good at the 11-dimensional chess that Wild fans have come to expect from their captain.
The bottom line is that if Kovalchuk's contract is significantly larger or over more years than Koivu's, the Devils have made a mistake. They'll get 2-3 wins a year from having Kovalchuk on the roster, but they'll never get value from his spot.
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FWIW
Players on terrible teams usually don’t get Hart votes. I think Don Waddell’s record speaks for itself in Atlanta as to why Kovalchuk only played 1 playoff series there in his 7(?) years
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Jose Theodore and Jarome Iginla finished 1-2 in 2002. Montreal wasn’t a playoff team without Theo, and Calgary was all kinds of bad back then.
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stamkos plays center and gaborik played for the wild where people just assumed that once he got to a team with offense he’d score at least 65 a year.
but i agree in general about kovalchuk’s one-dimensionality – hart trophy votes are just an odd argument
I think using the NHL awards in any argument is pretty pointless. The guys on here and the rest of the hockey blogosphere have a much better grasp of what’s going on than almost every hockey writer or “analyst.”
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The point is that the people who are telling you Kovalchuk is worth $10M a year have never felt that way before. We know the Hart voters don’t know what they’re doing – this is a further data point.
Also the Hart trophy is based on “value” as opposed to talent and results only. Never thought I’d say this sentence, but the CFL has it right. They give out an award to the Most Outstanding Player, none of this value crap. Just the player judged to have had the best season. Would that have gotten more votes for Kovie in the past? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s hard to deny that the best player on one of the 4 or 5 best teams in the NHL is the guy who gets the Hart trophy (same in the NBA too).
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Sorry for the confusion, I knew what you were implying and I agree with it. My slightly irrelevant comment was just directed at people who try to say “Player X won the Selke so he’s therefore better than someone else.”
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i mean, that’s all fair. we’ll see. i’m hoping that new jersey can get kovalchuk to change some of his terrible habits, which would no doubt increase his corsi and thus his value – i doubt they get him to change all of them.
If, after a decade in the NHL, the puck’s in his own end and he’s standing at center, banging his stick on the ice, nobody can fix him.
well, that’s not really what i observed in new jersey. kovalchuk would just selectively backcheck, or sometimes leave the zone early hoping to get the puck passed to him up ice. like you mentioned (or maybe it was scott reynolds) his corsi in new jersey was really not bad and his ice time wasn’t exceptionally favorable.
the habit i’d like to change most is the overstaying of shifts – i’d be curious about a breakdown of kovalchuk fenwick divided by seconds into his shift (e.g. 0-15 seconds, 16-30 seconds).
Kovalchuk’s Corsi with the Devils was actually really, really good. Don’t know what kind of zone starts and comp. he had though.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 19, 2010 9:04 PM EDT up reply actions
6 million/year cap hit
How does this deal look now that there’s a reported figure submitted to the NHLPA?
I’m just curious.
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I think we should know the pay break down on a yearly basis before we analyze the deal. I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets league minimum or something for like the last 7 or 8 years.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Why does that make a difference? If the Devils are going to spend to the cap, who cares how much cash they spend?
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2010 12:39 AM EDT up reply actions
It makes a huge difference because those extra years bring this cap hit way down. I don’t think there is a single person on this planet who’s dumb enough to think that Lou honestly believes Kovalchuk will play this contract out. They obviously talked about retirement during negotiations (the structure of the contract makes it so blatant) even though that’s illegal. The NHL should throw this out, but they’ll roll over just like they did with the Hossa contract. Yea the Hossa contract was ridiculous, but this a new level of insanity.
And I just found the cap hit numbers on capgeek. Kovy gets league minimum the last six years. What would the cap hit have been without those years? $8.95M, which would have been a gross overpay.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
I know the cap hit matters. I just don’t know why you would say we need to know the yearly breakdown before judging the contract. If you know the cap number and you know that the Devils plan to spend to the cap regardless, and you know that they have no intention of trading Kovalchuk, who cares how much they spend in any one year of the deal? There are some interesting things to note (like getting $6M instead of $11M in the “next lockout” season), but it’s not going to substantially alter whether or not it’s a good deal for the Devils.
by Scott Reynolds on Jul 20, 2010 11:54 AM EDT up reply actions
The problem for me is that this deal doesn’t work without those six throwaway years at the end. And those years shouldn’t be there, according to the CBA. Sure the cap hit is good and the Devils win the end, but I don’t like the means they used to get there. But the NHL won’t care, so it doesn’t matter anyway.
Hockey Blogger at Pensburgh.com
Perhaps you spoke too soon
Kovie contract is rejected.
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