World Cup: Spain's Road to Victory
by Hawerchuk on Jul 12, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
in Zzz...Soccer
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Spain displayed a surprising level of dominance throughout the World Cup. Whereas other teams might periodically not dominate possession from the moment the game started, the Spaniards never blinked.
| Opponent | Minutes Tied | Pass F/90 | Weighted | Pass A/90 | Weighted | % Passes | Weighted |
| Switzerland | 52.3 | 675 | 153 | 215 | 41 | 76 | 79 |
| Honduras | 16.8 | 461 | 108 | 338 | 61 | 58 | 64 |
| Chile | 23.9 | 305 | 65 | 203 | 49 | 60 | 57 |
| Portugal | 63.2 | 602 | 129 | 255 | 47 | 70 | 73 |
| Paraguay | 83.1 | 527 | 107 | 158 | 33 | 77 | 77 |
| Germany | 73.6 | 653 | 150 | 367 | 65 | 64 | 70 |
| Netherlands | 122.3 | 414 | 87 | 207 | 38 | 67 | 70 |
| Total | 435.2 | 531 | 115 | 237 | 45 | 69 | 72 |
It seems surprising that they were less dominant during group play, putting up middling numbers (for them) against the Chileans and a weak Honduran side. But once they got up against good opponents, they made sure to control the play.
One sign of a team being way better than its opponents is its ability to control possession even when they have the lead. Normally, a team will play defensively when it's up a goal and concede the ball in order to prevent higher-quality scoring chances. Spain never really gave the ball up when it was beating most of its opponents:
| Opponent | Minutes Up 1 | Pass F/90 | Weighted | Pass A/90 | Weighted | % Passes | Weighted |
| Switzerland | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Honduras | 34.8 | 499 | 113 | 230 | 47 | 68 | 71 |
| Chile | 57.7 | 685 | 135 | 236 | 40 | 74 | 77 |
| Portugal | 31 | 494 | 106 | 296 | 46 | 63 | 70 |
| Paraguay | 12.3 | 395 | 79 | 95 | 20 | 81 | 79 |
| Germany | 20.8 | 199 | 48 | 493 | 106 | 29 | 31 |
| Netherlands | 6.9 | 26 | 5 | 157 | 38 | 14 | 12 |
| Total | 163.5 | 498 | 104 | 265 | 50 | 65 | 68 |
It wasn't until they came up against the Germans that they actually needed to back off a bit. Despite their loss to the Swiss and a few shaky moments against Paraguay, this looks like the best team's textbook path to winning the World Cup.
If anyone could have challenged Spain, it would have been Argentina or Brazil, but each of them eliminated themselves long ago with a bad game. The Dutch and the Germans simply weren't up to the task.
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For hockey, you often do “expected” goals. Was 4-0 in goals for the playoffs about the expected result for Spain? It was rather curious that while dominating the ball they only managed four 1-0 victories.
It’s possible that Spain’s lack of dominance in their group play had to do with their surprising loss to Switzerland? They needed the wins in the remaining two games badly, and probably played a bit more conservatively with the lead as a result.
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Spain played more conservatively against Honduras and Chile when the game was tied, though.
In terms of expected goals, no 4-0 was not the expected result. Something more like 5-2. When you have so few goals, there’s always going to be significant luck involved in any result. eg – in the later rounds, the most likely outcome is 1-0, with one team controlling 100% of the goals in the game.
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