Do you really think Ilya Kovalchuk is any good?

Kovalchuk’s value took a huge drop when he helped the New Jersey Devils win one playoff game. In 7 seasons, he’s been to 9 playoff games, and only emerged from one with a victory. That doesn’t scream of a player that A) can lead, or B) makes a difference when it matters.

I think Kovalchuk, realistically, is a 6 million dollar player at most. Fortunately for Ilya, some teams throw realism to the wind and overpay (as the Thrashers nearly did.)

He scores a lot of of goals and brings fans out of their seats, but he’s never proven that he’s capable of making a difference when the pressure is really on.

Huh? I like the general premise of this post, but the comparison to Lecavalier throws me for a real loop.

There’s not a lot of value in getting more offensive zone starts than your teammates. Sure, there’s some, since it’s a bit of a sign of how the coach is using you more generally. But the level itself certainly matters too, and matters more, I think. Lecavalier’s starting opct for the last three seasons, btw: 62.1, 60.0, and 55.4.

And how do you figure Kovalchuk plays easier competition than Lecavalier? Ignoring deadline trades (so counting him as a Thrasher this year, and Peverly as a Predator last year), Kovy’s last three qualcomps have been first, second, and second on his team. Lecavalier’s been first, first, and fifth (although high for fifth). Lecavalier’s numbers are higher, and they’ve been in the same division, so that probably counts for something. But that still looks like a small difference to me. Corso QoC and Corsi Rel QoC are both somewhat muddle, except for last season, when Lecavalier led his team in both.

And just for kicks, Lecavalier’s last three ES onice sh%: 10.49%, 8.91%, and 8.51%.

Something that I’d like to throw out there that is rather true, unfortunately…

I’m a Thrashers fan, and one day I was discussing Thrashers hockey, mainly Kovalchuk as a candidate for the Ewing Theory, with a professor after class. In order to draw the connection to the Ewing Theory, I called Kovalchuk a “superstar” (which in my opinion he is not. Great player, good skater, top-flight shooter with decent passing, but no superstar in my book) and my professor quips, “If you’re playing hockey in Atlanta, are you really a superstar?” I had to admit he’s right. After I finished laughing my arse off, that is.

I think of Kovalchuk as a 5-7.5 mil player, with the 6.5-7.5 being the overpaying that almost inevitably happens for free agents. I feel like if he gave a hometown discount he’d end up making 5 mil, but that has yet to happen and I won’t hold my breath waiting for it.

I’m surprised by this post. I never thought Kovalchuk was going power vs power or doing heavy lifting, but my memory was always that he essentially played alone against whatever line he was against. This year his quality of team mates shoots up, but I remember being surprised that he got to play with Antropov and Afinogenov so much this year, and a tiny bit of digging shows why. His quality of team mates was .184 this year (6th on NJ), .029 last year (8th on ATL), and -.034 (17th) the year before that. Lecavalier (who I don’t watch as much), seems to be near the top of his team in qualteam each year, going .055 (4th), .183 (1st), and .023 (3rd).

We can imagine that Lecavalier is being used in a more traditional top 6 role, being surrounded by top 6 players. While Kovalchuk is being played with lower level scorers so that the less talent-filled Thrashers can cobble together a solid second scoring line.

Kovie might be a pure scorer and the coach is lining him up with checkers to do the work, but from my viewings, I would argue that he was required to carry his line, and that his zone start was as much about protecting his linemates as it was about protecting him. Either way, he’s not a defensive stud, but I can’t imagine his scoring going down from years past playing with rookies and checkers. And I’m not sure that any situation he finds himself in will be less favorable.

But obviously, it’s years ago now and we all remember narratives better than anything, so I’d love to hear if others have a clearer memory of who he played with or how he was used. And obviously, more data!

I don’t understand this Kovalchuk bashing. Yes, he’s overrated; his stats are padded because he’s drowning in power-play time. But he doesn’t get “great” starts; he’s gotten less than 50% on average the last few years because Atlanta sucked. His shooting ability consistently gives him 15-20 goals above average, which is probably 20-25 goals above replacement just for shooting ability. If the rest is a wash he’s a 3.5 WAR player, although I’ll admit he may very well be below replacement on the rest.

His Corsi is terrible, but even despite that he’s been consistently a better + than the rest of the Thrashers (not saying much, I know) because of shooting. Yes, he’s been -75, but he didn’t exactly have Lidstrom and Hasek behind him either.

However, because so much of his value is derived from the power-play, he’d be a good fit on whatever team needed help there the most; certainly not LA, which already has two great point men. Unfortunately, all the teams that need help there (Edmonton, Toronto, Florida and, ironically, Atlanta) aren’t the ones in the running.

Kovy is a bona fide sniper, I am not denying that. But what most people outside Atlanta don’t know is that he doesn’t pull the trigger unless he is pretty sure he can score. That is, he doesn’t shoot that often compared to say Ovechkin who constantly pulls the trigger no matter how low the odds are. This affects the shooting percentage (of both players) dramatically.

However he is a one of a kind sniper. I am not well versed in Corsi or how it is calculated (going to google right now). He is worth at least the 7M that Dany heatley is getting.