We've had 23 UFA signings so far, with an average price of $1.86M per projected 2010-11 win. (Projected wins are calculated using a dead simple model: a 3-2-1 weighting of a player's last three years worth of GVT.) Last year, this figure was $2.23M for the free agent class as a whole.
I expect the UFA price of a win to rise slightly this off-season, but what we've seen here is the "hometown discount". I'm not being totally consistent with my math so this is a coarse estimate, but basically, when a player re-signs with his original team before July 1, he gives them something like a 20% discount on his performance. An RFA – who almost necessarily signs with his original team – gives them a 40% discount. So the actual RFA discount versus a UFA who wants to stay with his team may not be quite as large as we suspected.
