English Premier League: Territory % vs % of Shots

LONDON, ENGLAND - MARCH 31: Lionel Messi (R) of Barcelona is pursued by Cesc Fabregas of Arsenal during the UEFA Champions League quarter final first leg match between Arsenal and FC Barcelona at the Emirates Stadium on March 31, 2010 in London, England. (Photo by Shaun Botterill/Getty Images)

I wondered earlier if team territory percentage was a significant predictor of winning percentage - obviously, it should be, but there's no guarantee that the data is collected correctly. At any rate, the answer is yes:

Epl_shot_territory_medium

I'm comparing territorial control to the percentage of shots taken by a given team [=SF/(SF+SA)], which is itself a good proxy for goal differential and winning percentage. The four points up at the top right are, not surprisingly, Chelsea, Man United, Liverpool and Arsenal.

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