June 13 World Cup Expected Goals

PRETORIA, SOUTH AFRICA - JUNE 13: Asamoah Gyan of Ghana celebrates after scoring a penalty during the 2010 FIFA World Cup South Africa Group D match between Serbia and Ghana at Loftus Versfeld Stadium on June 13, 2010 in Pretoria, South Africa. (Photo by Phil Cole/Getty Images)

Slightly different results today: Slovenia pulls off a win thanks to weak goaltending despite not really getting close to the net during the game; Germany runs up the score on Australia; and Ghana wins an even game on a penalty kick.

Home Shots Goals Exp Goals Away Shots Goals Exp Goals
Algeria 10 0 0.90 Slovenia 7 1 0.13
Germany 17 4 2.16 Australia 11 0 1.14
Serbia 14 0 1.02 Ghana 15 1 0.99

My model doesn't correctly account for the higher shooting percentage on penalty kicks, so Ghana's expected goals are slightly higher. Don't ever underestimate the impact of awarding a PK.

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