Crosby deserves the Hart
by GoPens! on May 23, 2010 12:56 AM EDT
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PrintI posted this fanpost over at From the Rink because I had some of these ideas bouncing around in my head the past couple of days. I'm re-posting it here because I'd love to get some feedback and see what you all think.
(For the record, DeltaOpp and DeltaSOT are metrics used at Puck Prospectus to evaluate player's performances. Here's where I found the data. This article is also inspired in part by Tom Awad's article on the same topic).
Quality of Teammates: The first aspect I want to analyze is the quality of teammates these three skaters spent the majority of their time with. Crosby centered a line with Bill Guerin and Chris Kunitz, Henrik Sedin was between his brother Daniel and Alexander Burrows, and Ovechkin was flanked by Niklas Backstrom and Mike Knuble. I used Tom Awad's GVT ratings to analyze the quality of teammates that the Hart trophy candidates had on their line, and then took the average to get a single number for comparison's sake. For Pittsburgh, Kunitz finished the year with a 6.2 GVT and Guerin finished with a 2.8, for an average of 4.5. For Vancouver, Daniel Sedin finished with a 21.2 GVT, and Burrows finished with an 18.1 GVT, for an average of 19.7. For Washington, Backstrom finished with a 24.6 GVT and Knuble finished with a 12.7 GVT, for an average of 18.7. While Sedin and Ovechkin were playing with almost identical line mates, Crosby was toiling with only 1/5 the quality of the other two.
Advantage: Crosby
(For those interested, GVT numbers can be found here, and an explanation of what GVT is can be found here, here, and here).
Quality of Competition: Henrik Sedin almost never gets matched up against quality opponents, as that role is reserved for the defensive line of Mason Raymond and Ryan Kesler. Therefore, his -0.1 DeltaOpp indicates average opponents at best. Ovechkin has a higher DeltaOpp than Sedin at 1.3, while Crosby blows the other two out of the water with a DeltaOpp of 2.7. This indicates that Crosby is going up against the opponent's top lines, and consistently producing at a rate almost equivalent to that of Sedin and Ovechkin.
Advantage: Crosby
Offense: Now that we have some perspective on the teammates and competition that the Hart candidates are equipped with, we can look at the offensive statistics that each one put up. Sedin finished the season with 112 points in 82 games, while Crosby and Ovechkin tied for second at 109 points in 81 and 72 games respectively. That's 1.37 points per game for Henrik, 1.35 for Crosby, and 1.51 for Ovechkin. With regards to the powerplay, Crosby and Sedin produce almost the same goals per 60 minutes, with Crosby at 1.6 and Sedin at 1.5. Ovechkin takes the cake on this account with 2.0 goals per 60 minutes, but it's important to remember that he's playing on a much more talented powerplay than either Sedin or Crosby. Also, as a minor note, though Ovechkin finished with only one less goal than Crosby, only one of Crosby's goals was an empty netter, while five of Ovechkin's were.
Another offensive consideration that should be taken into account is the quality of divisional opponents. This is significant because almost 30% of a team's games are played within their division. To get a rough estimation of the quality of each division, I added up the goals against for each other team in a Hart candidate's division. Crosby's division (Atlantic) allowed the fewest collective goals of the three, with 898. Sedin (Northwest) was next with 973 collective goals against, and Ovechkin's division was last with 1,016 goals against. It seems like Ovechkin plays in a weaker division than both Crosby and Sedin.
In conclusion, Crosby and Sedin put up almost identical offensive numbers, but Crosby gets the advantage because of the lack of quality line mates and better competition he played against. In terms of Ovechkin versus Crosby, Ovechkin's numbers look better outright, but when weighed against the data on line mates, competition, and divisional quality, they take on a less flattering appeal for Ovechkin.
Advantage: Draw between Ovechkin and Crosby
Defense: Defense is always tougher to measure than offensive capabilities. +/- alone is typically misleading, but fortunately, Gabriel Desjardins has compiled a lot of advanced +/- statistics that can paint a better picture. What I'm looking at is the difference between a player's +/-ON/60 (which is the player's +/- per 60 minutes of ice time) and +/-OFF/60 (which is a player's +/- per 60 minutes of time off the ice). For Crosby, the difference is 1.08, Sedin is at 1.95, and Ovechkin is at 2.08.
Included in defense is also a forward's penalty killing work. On this front, Ovechkin gets no points because he doesn't kill any penalties. In terms of Crosby and Sedin, both kill penalties for roughly the same amount of time per game, and both scored two short-handed goals on the year. Using another Puck Prospectus metric, DeltaSOT, Crosby led the league in 4-on-5 play this year with a 2.7, and Henrik was at 1.1. Of course, if both players killed penalties at the rate of their teammates (like Jordan Staal and Ryan Kesler) then the bigger sample would probably depress their numbers. Yet looking at what penalty killing stats we have for the three, Crosby is the best.
In conclusion, Ovechkin has the best adjusted plus minus of any of the three players, but he did this in a weaker division with great line mates and slightly above average competition. Sedin was almost as good, though he did this against the worst competition of any of the three candidates. Crosby put up good numbers, and had the best pk stats of the three. I'll give the slight nod to Ovechkin on this one.
Advantage: Ovechkin
Miscellaneous: In this section, I'm going to look at a couple of other statistics that I think are relevant to this analysis.
First, faceoffs. As a winger, Ovechkin doesn't take any faceoffs, but since Crosby and Sedin are both centermen, they take plenty of them. Crosby has taken the most draws in the NHL, and has the most wins with 1,001. In terms of percentage, Crosby won 55.9% of his draws, good for 11th in the league, and Henrik won 49.5%, good for 59th in the league. Crosby was also more consistent, winning 56% of his draws at home and 55% on the road, while Sedin won 53% of his draws at home but was a below average 46% on the road.
Next, I'm going to look at shootout numbers. While some may think the shootout is an assault on the purity of the sport, you're completely entitled to that opinion, but nevertheless, the shootout is still a significant part of the game right now because it can be the difference between 1 or 2 points (and for Philadelphia, the difference between the playoffs or not). For those with at least four shootout attempts, Sidney Crosby led the league in success rate, potting 8-of-10 opportunities. Ovechkin was 2-for-9 on the year, and Sedin did not take any shootout attempts.
Finally, a quick look at penalties taken and drawn. Crosby drew 27 penalties and took 21 on the year, with a +6 differential. Henrik took 18 and drew 23, with a +5 differential, and Ovechkin drew 24 and took 17, with a +7 differential. Ovechkin also had three game misconducts assessed against him.
Advantage: Crosby
Conclusion: Looking at all of the statistics, Crosby is the most deserving of the three Hart candidates. Given the vast gap between his line mates and those of Ovechkin and Sedin, as well as the difference in competition, it's incredible that he was able to put up comparable offensive numbers. That he did is a testament to his talent. He also succeeded in everything that he was asked to do, whether it was faceoffs, killing penalties, or scoring goals. Perhaps most significant for the MVP award, Crosby was involved in 42.4% of his team's goals this season. For Sedin, it was 41.1%, while Ovechkin was involved in only 34% of his team's scores. Simply put, Crosby deserves the Hart.
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Solid
Couldn’t have said it better myself. Hopefully the real voters will consider the players’ isolated performance as you have, but I don’t hold out much hope that they make deductions based on objective evidence.
Too many writers will fill out their ballot based on a quick glance at the Art Ross standings.
"Lord Stanley, scratch their names on your fabled Cup!" - Mike Lange
Too many writers will fill out their ballot based on a quick glance at the Art Ross standings.
I have a bad feeling this is all too accurate. Hopefully the next generation of hockey writers and bloggers can bring advanced stats into the mainstream.
Thanks for reading!
Pittsburgh sports all the way
do you write anywhere else?
I loved the article and even linked it from my blog. I checked out your profile to see if you write elsewhere but just saw a few fanposts. Are you a a regular writer?
Ryan
Front Office Fans &
Sports Opinionated & Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast
I’m trying to start posting more because I’ve got nothing to do this summer before I start law school, so I’ve been spending a lot of my time on SBN.
I’d like to be a regular writer, but I don’t really know what the procedure is to get there. But I’ll be sure to send you whatever stuff I write in the future. Thanks for the comments.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
If you need a place to write, I’d be happy to have you over at my blog, just email me Ryan@Sports-Opinionated.com . As for SBN, I can’t help you there, but there may be team sites looking for writers.
Ryan
Front Office Fans &
Sports Opinionated & Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast
great breakdown
You took a debatable topic and broke it down item by item. I really like the arguments you made. I especially love the way you used GVT for linemate quality.
Ryan
Front Office Fans &
Sports Opinionated & Pink Shirt Wise Guys: Italian Soccer Podcast
Thanks a lot for the kind words.
I’ve had these ideas in my head for a while now and I just finally wanted to get them down in an organized manner. I wanted to use the GVT ratings for line mate quality because I thought it appropriately highlights the gulf between Crosby and the other two.
I would’ve also used something with zone starts and a Corsi rating, but I’m still getting caught up on the niceties of those two stats.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
GoPens, I like what you’ve done here, but I can’t help notice the similarities between your article and one I wrote for PuckProspectus a month ago, titled, interestingly, “Give Crosby the Hart”:
http://www.puckprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=519
Don’t get me wrong. I have no problem with your being inspired by my article, arguments, or stats, but you should at least give credit and provide a link. As it stands, this is plagiarism. As a law student you would know this.
Sorry, just saw the link. But you should still mention that it was “in part” inspired by that article.
I’m deeply sorry for not mentioning it was in part inspired by what I read from you Tom; I’ll make sure to specify that next time. I really meant no harm.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
Great article, I just disagree with your statement “Ovechkin takes the cake on this account with 2.0 goals per 60 minutes, but it’s important to remember that he’s playing on a much more talented powerplay than either Sedin or Crosby.”
I think the Penguins powerplay was the most talented of the 3 ( and likely even the league). They definitly did not play like it this past year, but when you consider they have not only crosby, but also malkin and gonchar.
by StripesForLife on May 25, 2010 10:27 AM EDT reply actions
To each his own, but Ovechkin-Green on the points and Backstrom-Semin-someone else is very talented too.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on May 25, 2010 11:06 AM EDT up reply actions
I think an easy but accurate way to analyze a powerplay’s talent is to look at the average GVT for a particular pp. For Vancouver, their average pp GVT was 15.4, for Pittsburgh it was 9.4, and for Washington it was 21.2. Here’s where I got the numbers.
It looks like Washington by far had the most talented powerplay of the three.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
I’m going to make this simple, Ovechkin will win the Hart hands down.
1) The most important thing to keep in mind is that Ovechkin played NINE less games than Sid and had just about the same point totals. That completely nullifies the “team talent” argument because Ovechkin would have been the clear winner in points and goals with nine more games. Also, comparing each superstars “lines” is myopic, the other 2 lines affect the superstars’ line. This is where the real talent argument comes in where you could easily say that the Pens have more talent than the Caps, especially considering there is nobody remotely close to Malkin’s talent on the Caps. You mentioned Mike Greene and if you watched the playoffs you would have seen that he clearly cannot play defense and is too slow to defend. Even his scoring (all he does) was off this year.
2) Let’s add to your defense argument which heavily tips it to Ovechkin’s favor: Ovi had more adjusted takeaways than Crosby and finished 5th in the NHL in adjusted hits; Sid isn’t even in the top 100. Why is Sid scared to hit other players?
3) Ovi had more assists as a winger in nine less games. While on its own impressive, it leads to a deeper analysis that Ovechkin blew away his career high in assists (again missing 9 games) while sacrificing goals. And while Crosby did set a personal best in goals, he still had 12 less assists than last year (and played 3 more games).
From which we can conclude that:
a) Ovechkin is passing more when he draws defenders to open teammates at the expense of his goal totals (15 less goals and 5 more assists in 9 less games played).
b) Crosby is looking to pad his goal totals but at the expense of assists (18 more goals and 12 less assists than last year in 3 more games played).
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Washington posted the most wins in franchise history in the same year that Ovechkin set his all time assist record.
4) To miscellaneous: you forgot the fact that Ovechkin doubled Crosby’s points in 7 playoff games against Montreal who knocked out both teams. In fact, Crosby is the only superstar (out of Gretzky, Sakic, Jagr, Lemieux, Ovechkin, Messier, Hull, Yzerman, ) in NHL history to score only 1 goal in two or more 7 game playoff series. Crosby has this special knack of not showing up in the playoffs, last year in the Finals vs the Red Wings (1 goal, 2 assists) and this year vs the Habs (1 goal, 4 assists).
Also, Crosby took more penalties than Ovechkin vs Montreal (two vs none) and actually should have had 3 when he smashed his stick on Halak’s goalpost out of frustration and the refs didn’t see it. Real leaders can control their tempers and Crosby has shown to crack at times under pressure.
Summary: Crosby most definitely should not be getting the MVP this year, it should be given to Ovechkin who easily posted better offensive numbers (personal best in assists) and led his team to a record amount of wins. Give it to the player who showed up in the playoffs in 7 games vs Montreal. While I like Crosby, I think he still has a ways to go regarding leadership and performing under pressure.
PS: LET’S GO FLYERS
by BroadStreetBullie on May 28, 2010 10:55 AM EDT reply actions
I hope you're right
…but I almost completely disagree with you.
1) The most important thing to keep in mind is that Ovechkin played NINE less games than Sid and had just about the same point totals. That completely nullifies the "team talent" argument because Ovechkin would have been the clear winner in points and goals with nine more games.
No, it doesn’t. Ovechkin had a stronger team, plain and simple. Crosby with that amount of talent would have put up neck and neck numbers with Ovechkin, in all likelihood.
Also, comparing each superstars "lines" is myopic, the other 2 lines affect the superstars’ line. This is where the real talent argument comes in where you could easily say that the Pens have more talent than the Caps, especially considering there is nobody remotely close to Malkin’s talent on the Caps.
Firstly, Alexander Semin might surpass everyone in the NHL on talent (Sergei Fedorov said so himself; of course, this is pure talent and not necessarily in-game talent). Furthermore, Backstrom might have had a better season on the whole than Malkin, especially at even strength. But aside from that, one player does not a supporting cast make. Washington has a slew of offensive players (many of whom decided to coordinate high shooting% years). Pittsburgh does not, quite simply. At least, I haven’t seen any statistics—or visual analysis, for that matter—to suggest otherwise.
You mentioned Mike Greene and if you watched the playoffs you would have seen that he clearly cannot play defense and is too slow to defend. Even his scoring (all he does) was off this year.
His GA/60 was decent and his GF/60 was amazing. On the whole, that’s pretty good D, right?
Plus, I can’t think he’s slow at all. That’s just wrong, if you ask me. He’s not as fast as he was as recently as last season, but you just saw him against a team people agree is fast on the whole in Montreal.
2) Let’s add to your defense argument which heavily tips it to Ovechkin’s favor: Ovi had more adjusted takeaways than Crosby and finished 5th in the NHL in adjusted hits; Sid isn’t even in the top 100. Why is Sid scared to hit other players?
Why is Nicklas Lidstrom afraid to hit?
And also, could you provide a link that doesn’t involve me making some sort of account? Thanks.
3) Ovi had more assists as a winger in nine less games. While on its own impressive, it leads to a deeper analysis that Ovechkin blew away his career high in assists (again missing 9 games) while sacrificing goals. And while Crosby did set a personal best in goals, he still had 12 less assists than last year (and played 3 more games).
That only evens the playing field, right? At least, with regards to goal and assist raw totals, basically identical. Which is all of what most voters I’d imagine look at before mailing in their votes.
From which we can conclude that:
a) Ovechkin is passing more when he draws defenders to open teammates at the expense of his goal totals (15 less goals and 5 more assists in 9 less games played).
b) Crosby is looking to pad his goal totals but at the expense of assists (18 more goals and 12 less assists than last year in 3 more games played).
Goals are also harder to come by than assists, no? Like 1.7 helpers per goal in the NHL, roughly? Notice how Crosby over last season is still +6 in points (with goals!!!) in 3 more games played.
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Washington posted the most wins in franchise history in the same year that Ovechkin set his all time assist record.
You could also they have plenty of guys who can score and pass, guys who can skate and forecheck, and also finished within the realm of “luck” with regards to where they should have finished. I’m not sure how much effect a captain has on a team, but I like how the Caps finished the regular season 30-4-7 after AO was named captain (though that’s probably the best 41 game stretch they’ll ever do with AO as captain and will see a drop off in points next season).
4) To miscellaneous: you forgot the fact that Ovechkin doubled Crosby’s points in 7 playoff games against Montreal who knocked out both teams.
The Hart Trophy is a regular season award.
In fact, Crosby is the only superstar (out of Gretzky, Sakic, Jagr, Lemieux, Ovechkin, Messier, Hull, Yzerman, ) in NHL history
Limited sample size. I’d also guess the parity in the NHL today is bigger than in the eras of Gretzky, Messier, and Hull (Sakic, Yzerman, Lemieux, and Jagr were more recent, but still I think their NHLs had less parity).
to score only 1 goal in two or more 7 game playoff series. Crosby has this special knack of not showing up in the playoffs, last year in the Finals vs the Red Wings (1 goal, 2 assists) and this year vs the Habs (1 goal, 4 assists).
That’s two series in his career which already has 11. And Halak was playing way above his head. You could say AO didn’t show up against MTL too—in the final three games (with the Caps already having won 3) he totaled what, 1 goal, 1 helper? Yikes.
Also, Crosby took more penalties than Ovechkin vs Montreal (two vs none) and actually should have had 3 when he smashed his stick on Halak’s goalpost out of frustration and the refs didn’t see it. Real leaders can control their tempers and Crosby has shown to crack at times under pressure.
That’s not a big difference. It’s easily 2 for AO and none for Sid too.
Summary: Crosby most definitely should not be getting the MVP this year, it should be given to Ovechkin who easily posted better offensive numbers
With much better teammates (have you heard of Nicklas Backstrom and Mike Knuble and Alexander Semin?)
(personal best in assists) and led his team to a record amount of wins. Give it to the player who showed up in the playoffs in 7 games vs Montreal.
Playoffs —> Conn Smythe. Regular season —> Hart. And in case you don’t know, the winner has already been decided: the “finalists” are the top-3 vote getters.
While I like Crosby, I think he still has a ways to go regarding leadership and performing under pressure.
There’s probably a better case against AO than against Crosby about not “performing under pressure.”
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on May 29, 2010 5:57 AM EDT up reply actions
Here come the excuses...
1) Making excuses for Crosby’s two horrible penalties vs Montreal, one which arguably lost game 7 for them, is hilarious. Making excuses for Crosby as the biggest Game 7 playoff choker in NHL history is hilarious: all you can say is “sample size too small”. Guess what? Every superstar has excelled in all sample sizes under pressure except Sid. Your parity argument is without merit because Ovechkin hasn’t choked like that in all of his 7 Game Series played in the modern era.
Montreal series: Yes, Ovechkin was shut down in the last 3 games but he still had a goal which was the same as Sid’s ENTIRE 7 game series. The Habs focused more on Ovi after he burned them for 4 goals/4 assists (maybe you missed the game with 2 shots, 2 goals scored?); but with Crosby he never did ANYTHING so they just kept the same game plan. Only an absolute fanboy thinks Crosby did better or on par with Ovi in their 7 games vs Montreal. Hell Ovi had a whopping 22 more shots on goal than Crosby including 10 in the last game. Crosby had 5, /crickets.
2) RE: Crosby became more of a goal scorer and his team did worse than last year. Ovechkin became more of an assist playmaker and his team became the best in the league. It looks like you are actually agreeing with me on this one by quoting the 30-4-7 record since becoming Captain. His career record for assists had a lot to do with that.
Expanding on that which includes your statement that goals are hard to come by when arguing the value of Sid’s goals: Ovechkin has led the league in even strength goals for the past THREE YEARS. You act like this year was an anomaly and your excuse: “Ovechkin’s team had more talent”. Knuble, the Caps just got THIS YEAR. Semin and Backstrom, look at their paltry stats for 2007-2008 (42 and 69 points) and explain how Ovechkin still led the league in even strength goals? Your argument that Ovechkin’s team is what makes him good is actually the other way around: Ovechkin is what makes them better. E.g. He is the reason that Backstrom was just signed to his new contract.
Definitive proof: Ovechkin has led the league in the past three years in GOALS CREATED PER GAME and no active player in the NHL is even near his stratosphere (this is even after passing more this year). 0.55 to #2 Kovalchuk’s 0.43:
http://www.hockey-reference.com/leaders/goals_created_per_game_active.html
^ Where is Crosby on this list?
Do you even know what goals created per game means? Again, you can’t use “his team was more talented excuse” either. The 2007-2008 Caps were 43 – 31 and didn’t even make it past the Conf Quarter Finals. Ovi has done it with and without talent. Goals created is a huge indicator of MVP pedigree.
3) Stats.hockeyanalysis.com was where the adjusted hits and takeaways were derived. It looks like that site is being revamped by puckosphere right now. I can tell you that Ovi was 5th in the NHL and Crosby was not in the top 100. Ovechkin had one more adjusted takeaway than Crosby. For someone who isn’t supposed to play as much defense, Ovi may be generating the takeaways from his hits and aggressive checking. The fact that Ovi trumps Sid in these categories should easily sway favor to Ovechkin because takeaways create goals (like I proved above).
4) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2n1tdkklxw0
Evidence of why Sid is still immature and he was extremely lucky that a ref didn’t see him break that stick or it would have been penalty #3 on him. Ovi doesn’t take stupid penalties, period. He takes his frustration out on them in the form of hitting.
5) The above evidence should easily prove that Ovechkin deserves the Hart over Crosby. Over Sedin, most likely… however the original poster saying “Sedin was almost as good [as Sid and Ovechkin], though he did this against the worst competition of any of the three candidates.” is just ridiculous. Vancouver finished 14th in SoS (Strength of Schedule) whereas Pitt and Washington were both 29th and 30th. Proof: http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VAN/2010.html
It will come down to Sedin and Ovechkin.
by BroadStreetBullie on Jun 2, 2010 10:07 AM EDT up reply actions
The purpose of the article and this comment thread is to debate who should win the Hart this year. Performances and stats from the playoffs or past years should not come into consideration.
If you would make your argument using information from this year’s regular season, it would be much appreciated.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
I don't know why I bother replying
But here you go.
1) Making excuses for Crosby’s two horrible penalties vs Montreal, one which arguably lost game 7 for them, is hilarious.
I don’t think I did.
Making excuses for Crosby as the biggest Game 7 playoff choker in NHL history is hilarious: all you can say is "sample size too small". Guess what? Every superstar has excelled in all sample sizes under pressure except Sid.
So it’s inexcusable that he failed to register a point in a given game? Dude, he failed to register a point in about a fourth of his games this past season.
Your parity argument is without merit because Ovechkin hasn’t choked like that in all of his 7 Game Series played in the modern era.
A lot of the Caps’ rivals’ fans would say his missed breakaway in Game 7 against PIT was a choke. As was his performance against Canada, and the Czechs.
2) RE: Crosby became more of a goal scorer and his team did worse than last year. Ovechkin became more of an assist playmaker and his team became the best in the league.
Malkin. Gonchar. Scuderi. Gill. Fleury.
It looks like you are actually agreeing with me on this one by quoting the 30-4-7 record since becoming Captain. His career record for assists had a lot to do with that.
That’s what I was trying to do.
Expanding on that which includes your statement that goals are hard to come by when arguing the value of Sid’s goals: Ovechkin has led the league in even strength goals for the past THREE YEARS.
Nicklas Backstrom? Bruce Boudreau? A ridiculous shooting percentage in 2008 and high shot totals?
You act like this year was an anomaly and your excuse: "Ovechkin’s team had more talent". Knuble, the Caps just got THIS YEAR. Semin and Backstrom, look at their paltry stats for 2007-2008 (42 and 69 points) and explain how Ovechkin still led the league in even strength goals?
Fine. Take off Knuble. AO had weak linemates, because Backstrom wasn’t a point per game player once he got off the fourth line (under Boudreau) (oh, and Backstrom had 60 points in 61 games under BB). Viktor Kozlov wasn’t a half-decent player. Sergei Fedorov sucked. Semin doesn’t get hurt when a kitten breathes on him. AO didn’t have a massive shot total coupled with an unsustainable ~15% shooting.
Your argument that Ovechkin’s team is what makes him good is actually the other way around: Ovechkin is what makes them better. E.g. He is the reason that Backstrom was just signed to his new contract.
The Caps PP suffers more without Backstrom, for what it’s worth. Backstrom is also an effective penalty killer.
Definitive proof: Ovechkin has led the league in the past three years in GOALS CREATED PER GAME and no active player in the NHL is even near his stratosphere (this is even after passing more this year). 0.55 to #2 Kovalchuk’s 0.43:
^ Where is Crosby on this list?
Does it adjust for offense? WSH offense > PIT offense.
Do you even know what goals created per game means? Again, you can’t use "his team was more talented excuse" either. The 2007-2008 Caps were 43 – 31 and didn’t even make it past the Conf Quarter Finals.
They played on a 108 point pace after Thanksgiving (just got 6 wins in 21 games before that) and got some regression to the mean with opponent scoring rates. Plus, they almost beat Philly, who could’ve I think put up a fight with PIT had PHI (if I’m remembering right) not lost 2 or 3 of their best defensemen.
Ovi has done it with and without talent. Goals created is a huge indicator of MVP pedigree.
Crosby, without talent. You can’t dispute that much with qualitative stuff.
The fact that Ovi trumps Sid in these categories should easily sway favor to Ovechkin because takeaways create goals
I’m not sure, but I think Gabe/Tom/someone else showed takeaways have little correlation with goals. I might be confused with blocked shots though.
(like I proved above)
Where? I don’t see it.
4) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2n1tdkklxw0
Evidence of why Sid is still immature and he was extremely lucky that a ref didn’t see him break that stick or it would have been penalty #3 on him. Ovi doesn’t take stupid penalties, period. He takes his frustration out on them in the form of hitting.
Sometimes reckless (read: stupid) hitting. It’s no secret he borderline charges and hits from behind at times, or misses and knees. See: Brian Campbell and Tim Gleason and Sergei Gonchar.
5) The above evidence should easily prove that Ovechkin deserves the Hart over Crosby. Over Sedin, most likely… however the original poster saying "Sedin was almost as good [as Sid and Ovechkin], though he did this against the worst competition of any of the three candidates." is just ridiculous. Vancouver finished 14th in SoS (Strength of Schedule) whereas Pitt and Washington were both 29th and 30th. Proof: http://www.hockey-reference.com/teams/VAN/2010.html
And VAN’s opponent’s 3rd or fourth line is likely easier to play against than a top line on a WSH or PIT opponent.
It will come down to Sedin and Ovechkin.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on Jun 2, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
It will come down to Sedin and Ovechkin.
I think you’ll be in for a big surprise when the final vote counts are released.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on Jun 2, 2010 11:13 AM EDT up reply actions
Response.
You bothered replying because I provide my argument with facts as do you.
1) Ovechkin has never scored 1 goal and/or 5 points or less in 2 or more 7 game series. That is a fact. I’d be willing to bet that Crosby has more 0 point playoff games than Ovechkin. Let’s be honest, Sid’s team won him the Cup vs Detroit. He didn’t do jack or squat to win that Cup (although helped to get there) in that series. Ovi’s Russian team play isn’t really a “choke” because there is no synergy among a team that plays 4-5 games a year. One breakaway miss vs the Pens is not indicative of his consistency either.
2) I do agree that Sedin was playing against lesser defenders, but overall his team played a respectable schedule with regards to SoS.
3) Not sure if Goals Created per Game adjusts for offense. Either way AO has destroyed the competition for 3 years straight, only Crosby challenged him this year.
4) We should just list the strengths of this regular season and what the voters will look at:
Ovechkin:
Better than Sid at game winning goals, takeaways, hits, assists, assists per game, +/, played 9 less games than Sid.
-Led NHL in goals created, even str goals, points per game.
-Led team to President’s Trophy
Sid:
-Better than AO: faceoffs, goals, shooting %, shootout goal %, less giveaways, less PIM.
-Led NHL in Adjusted Goals per Game
Even: Points, PP Goals, Team SoS
Off of this resume alone I don’t see how AO doesn’t win it. Voters will see that both WSH and PIT field top 20 Assists per Game players (AO/Backstrom/Greene vs Sid/Malkin/Gonchar), top 20 Points per Game (AO/Backstrom vs Sid/Malkin), and WSH having a slight edge in other offensive categories such as goals created because of Semin. While it probably will be close I can’t see how you don’t reward the best player on the best regular season team with the MVP. Washington was 4-0 vs Pitt this year and won 7 of their last 8 regular season meetings. I highly doubt voters will reward Crosby for more selfish play in a season where his team performed just about the same as the last (same amount of losses, 2 pt differential) and AO’s posted the best record in franchise history. But I could be wrong.
One last factor that could weigh in is Lester/Pearson voting. Since the Hart and Lester usually go hand in hand, it’ll be interesting to see what other players thought about AO’s suspension this year for questionable hits. Usually he beats out Sid because other players may think Sid whines/complains too much. AO may have some crazy hitting but it’s due to overzealousness and playing balls to the wall, something you cannot say Sid does every night (Game 7 vs Montreal as an example).
by BroadStreetBullie on Jun 2, 2010 1:58 PM EDT up reply actions
Sigh…you can read around the internet. People who actually vote have shared and many I’ve seen pick other than Ovechkin. Most pick other than Ovechkin. You can think AO is the MVP, that’s fine (I personally think he should edge out Crosby, with Sedin in a solid 3rd, but I would’ve cast Miller as my #1), but don’t think most of the voters will. They’ll see Sedin’s 112 points (oooh, shiny Ross!!!1) and say he’s MVP. They’ll look at Crosby’s 51 goals (oooh, shiny Richard!!!1) and give him a vote.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on Jun 2, 2010 2:39 PM EDT up reply actions
I don’t think any of us really have the understanding to defend QComp well, in a way they’ll understand. Gabe, could you clarify some points in that thread (namely, East vs West and “checking lines”)?
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
To be honest, that’s a REALLY long thread. If you guys have any specific questions about QCOMP, as Gabe’s math secretary I’m sure I can answer them.
Thanks for the offer Tom.
I think the central disagreement on that thread is how accurately QCOMP measures Henrik Sedin’s competition.
Some alleged that he went up against a lot of team’s “shut down” lines, since Western Conference coaches like to line match more. Because those lines try to primarily contain the opposition’s main talents, their adjusted +/- won’t be good (which is QCOMP’s formula), but they’re still nonetheless good players.
Others (like myself) said that regardless of what a line’s role is, if they’re getting outscored quite often while on the ice, they might not be as good as some imagine them to be. Though QCOMP isn’t perfect, it is probably a decent indication of the average level of competition a player faced over an 82 game season.
If you wouldn’t mind giving us some of your insight on the topic, it would be much appreciated.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
Here’s the current thinking, not just mine, on the subject:
- There are very few true “shut-down” lines in the NHL, meaning lines with little offensive skill who simply aim to prevent the opposition from scoring. I believe this has been true since the end of the lockout, with the elimination of obstruction. Today, most line matching in power-vs-power, meaning lining up best lines against best lines. All the players with the best QCOMP (Heatley, Nash, Zetterberg, Gaborik, Parise) are also offensive dynamos.
- This is less true with defensemen, BTW. Many of the defensemen with highest QCOMP have moderate offensive talent, like Regehr, Michalek or Jackman. This is because defensemen contribute much less to offense at even-strength. Obviously, some (Lidstrom, Niedermayer, Keith, Seabrook) also have offensive talent.
- It’s pretty widely acknowledged that Alain Vigneault tried to get the Sedins AWAY from the opposition’s best players. Henrik’s and Daniel’s QCOMP (and DeltaQO) went way down this year. Their scoring went up. You figure it out. Vigneault could afford to do this because of the presence of Kesler.
So in a nutshell, I think you’re correct.
2 cents from a Vancouver Partisan...
While I agree Henrik faced weaker opposition compared to Kesler (And I begrudgingly concede the possiblity of Crosby ;) ), Henrik is 2nd in centres on the team in qualcomp.
And Crosby beats Kesler’s qualcomp by .030.
Now call me crazy, but this means that Crosby played tougher opposition than Ryan Kesler. And Kesler is the centre with the highest qualcomp on the Canucks.
If we posit qualcomp as a NON relative number, Crosby played harder opposition than any centre on the Canucks.
But I’m certain common sense dictates that is nonsense. It’s a truism to say the west is a tougher conference than the east, and the fact Sid posts 1.375ppg vs eastern teams and 1.0ppg vs western teams seems to confirm this, I’d venture to say that Crosby does not face stronger opposition than Kesler.
I’d instead posit that Western teams have a more balanced attack, so relative +/- ratings are lower for top lines, therefore western qualcomps are lower. The fact that 18/20 of the top qualcomp players are in the east, and that western “shutdown” guys are the other 2 players, makes me feel I might be headed in a decent direction.
I’d instead posit that Western teams have a more balanced attack, so relative +/- ratings are lower for top lines, therefore western qualcomps are lower.
Even if the top lines do score less in the West for whatever reason, the QCOMP stats are indicating they’re getting outscored at a greater rate than the comparable lines Staal and Crosby faced.
In other words, offensive production could be less due to a balanced attack, but that doesn’t stop them from preventing goals against. The statistics seem to indicate that they didn’t do either thing as well as the competition Staal and Crosby saw.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
No.
Top lines in the west do score as much. But it’s their other lines who have equally strong +/-’s, making the ratings of players lower because relatively, Patrick Kane does not outscore opponents compared to Patrick Sharp or Marian Hossa as much a Ovechkin outscores Brendan Morrison or Mike Knuble.
The statistics seem, in my opinion, to say that in the east, a top line of superstars paid 7+ million dominate icetime and scoring with pluggers filling in the depth (see Atlanta, New Jersey, Carolina, Ottawa, Toronto, Washington, Tampa Bay, etc.) will play fire against fire, so the relative +/-‘s and qualcomps will be larger, where as in the west, teams that roll 2-3 scoring lines (Detroit, Vancouver, Chicago, Colorado, Anaheim, etc.) the fire on fire approach is less effective and the relative +/-’s are lower and the qualcomps as well.
Hi Nano,
You’re right. QUALCOMP doesn’t adjust for strength of team, so Western players are undervalued by it. The only QUALCOMP that doesn’t normalize is the Corsi QoC (not CorsiRel QoC). By this metric, you can see that Kesler > Crosby > Sedin.
I thought taking the difference between the +/-ON/60 and +/-OFF/60 adjusted for team strength by not penalizing good players on bad teams, which allows you to compare players from different teams. I could be wrong, but that’s what I took as the main point behind the formula.
Pittsburgh sports all the way
It does...
What it also does, however, is penalize good players on good teams. Patrick Kane is a better player than Alex Burrows, but his teammates have similar +/- rates, where as Burrows plays on a line that furiously outscores the rest of the team, so his relative +/- is better than Kane’s.
Question:
How is Qualcomp QoC measured? Taking a peek at the leaderboard, the Bluejackets seem to play the toughest Corsicomp in the league. Is this a consequence of playing detroit and chicago more often? Or does it factor in the fact that they are a low shooting team that plays trap?
offense
ovechkin has a much better offensive set. no matter who he is with, he can get it done. most of his goals are him singlehandedly putting it in the net. crosbys goals are cheap rebounds off malkin and gonchar or nice cross crease passes.
however, i do agree that crosby should get the hart trophy especially because he played 81 games, and ovechkin played much less and got injured and suspended twice i think. even though ovechkin had more points per game average, and probably wouldve scored more points than crosby and probably more goals if he had played as many games, but thats not what the trophy is for.
keep in mind the hart trophy could go to a goaltender, hint ryan miller. he was spectacular this season and the sabres wouldve sucked had it not been for his extraordinary play
ovechkin has a much better offensive set. no matter who he is with, he can get it done. most of his goals are him singlehandedly putting it in the net. crosbys goals are cheap rebounds off malkin and gonchar or nice cross crease passes.
They’ve both shown that they can get it done almost on their own. AO didn’t have much talent on his line, let alone his team, in his first two years and still went 52-54-106 and 46-46-92. But since, he’s gotten one of the best players in the game in Backstrom as pretty much his permanent linemate at even strength.
Crosby hasn’t had as much talent I think (save Lemieux, but he retired mid-season) and has been getting it done nonetheless like in 2007. He certainly has been scoring goals from closer (if memory serves on his average scoring distance and shooting distance). But I wouldn’t make a big deal out of it.
Cидни Kросби: Александр Oвечкин, он твой папа теперь
Red Line Station: for Capitals fans who can bear reading something less intelligent than a story at Japers' Rink
(note name change)
by red army line on Jun 1, 2010 1:04 PM EDT up reply actions
keep in mind the hart trophy could go to a goaltender, hint ryan miller. he was spectacular this season and the sabres wouldve sucked had it not been for his extraordinary play
Miller wasn’t nominated for the Hart this year, but I think he was exceptional this past season. He’s got my Vezina vote (and I’m sure every other reasonable fan’s as well).
Pittsburgh sports all the way
Fun with hypotheticals!
If Sedin, Ovechkin and Crosby kept their scoring rates and switched conferences!
Crosby:
Eastern:
17 games x 1.375= 23.375
Western:
64 games x 1.0=64
87 point season, 88-89 point pace
Ovechkin
Eastern:
17 games x 1.618= 27.506
Western
55 games x 1.176= 64.679
92 point season, 104-105 point pace
Sedin:
Eastern:
64 games x 1.333= 85.333
Western
18 games x 1.375= 24.75
110 point season, 110 point pace.
Do these hypotheticals give any credence to the idea that scoring so much in the western conference is a much more difficult feat, so Henrik’s counting numbers do count towards his favour?
Without softer teams to beat up, Crosby and Ovechkin fall to mere Richards and Thornton territory while Henrik still ties Bure’s team record for points in a season. Henrik is also the more consistent producer.
Not a total argument for a hart, but food for thought.
Dammit.
Crosby:
Eastern:
17 games x 1.375= 23.375
Western:
64 games x 1.0=64
87 point season, 88-89 point pace
Should read:
Crosby:
Eastern:
17 games x 1.4375= 24.437(24)
Western:
64 games x 1.0=64
88 point season, 89-90 point pace
Only a point or two, but I don’t want to look like I’m messing with Sid to favour Hank, at least, not in a dishonest way…
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