Cammalleri vs Malkin shooting
by Hawerchuk on May 20, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
Email
PrintI wanted to look at Mike Cammalleri and Evgeni Malkin's shooting performance over the last five years relative to expected shooting based purely on shot location. These are only even-strength initial shots since I think we want to know how they do at picking a corner while being defended:
| Ev Shots | EXPG | G | S | M |
| Cammalleri | 13.9 | 14.8 | 147.6 | 65.1 |
| Malkin | 15.3 | 14.5 | 146.3 | 60.0 |
Cammalleri has exceeded expectations very slightly, while Malkin underperformed very slightly. If this is a true talent, we'd expect to see the same pattern in their even-numbered and odd-numbered shots. Looking at 999 shots for Cammalleri and 824 for Malkin:
| Exceed Sh% | Odd Shots | Even Shots |
| Cammalleri | 2.2 | 10.7 |
| Malkin | -18.1 | 7.3 |
It's hard to draw any conclusions there. If we look at the amount by which all players with 500+ shots since the lockout exceeded expectations in odd and even games, we see that there's not much of a relationship. This "talent" regresses 71% to the mean:
Only six forwards were able to exceed their expected shooting percentage by 1.5 standard deviations in both even and odd shots: Ilya Kovalchuk, Daniel Alfredsson, Alexander Semin, Marian Gaborik, Jason Spezza and Nathan Horton. I think Kovalchuk, and to a lesser extent, Horton, are the only players who show up in this list no matter how many different ways I put it together. So if you ever want to credit a player with better shooting talent than anyone else, those are the only two guys who I'd have any confidence in. Otherwise, a shooter is basically a shooter...
27 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Seems like hard shooters have a slightly higher %.
Horton is a big guy and Kovalchuk is too. I wonder if there’s a slight correlation between size and shooting % at a given location.
What about Alex Tanguay? He’s 18.8% for his career on 1078 shots.
by DoctorMyBrainHurts on May 20, 2010 2:09 PM EDT reply actions
Do you think there’s a link between his low shot totals and high shooting percentage? Say he’s self-selecting shots? Considering his icetime and general ES prowess, his shot count is consistently rather low.
(Why did the Habs let that guy go, anyway?)
Because he doesn’t shoot enough.
They needed to adress that corsi problem by driving possession, remember?
[sob]
The guys that they got to replace him weren’t exactly shabby w/Corsi, either. If the Habs are a Corsi blackhole it’s not because the guys they have have never done it before — it’s a different problem, I think.
But I just don’t understand why such a weak 5-on-5 club would let go of its best 5-on-5 forward, a homeboy to boot and a guy who’s relatively young, after trading a first-round-pick for him. Considering how tough it was for Tanguay to find work afterwards, which was really shocking given his past accomplishments, there may have been something we don’t know, bad blood with the org or something, but still… weird.
Tanguay has stepped into a bit of black hole since leaving Calgary. I think he has significant shoulder issues, but that’s just speculation.
He was a monster as a Flamea and Keenan ran him out of town.
by Kent Wilson on May 20, 2010 10:36 PM EDT up reply actions
He was actually very good for the Habs too until he got hurt. Best 5-on-5 forward on the team, unquestioningly, and quite probably best overall too.
And that oh-so-brief Kovalev-Koivu-Tanguay line was dynamite. It was a good shooting run, of course, but I felt Kovalev is more dangerous when he plays sniper, and he was willing to entrust the puck to Tanguay.
Can’t believe the Avs traded him away for Jordan Leopold. What in the hell were they thinking?
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 21, 2010 9:16 AM EDT up reply actions
Unfortunately I don’t believe that was the case.
The New Improved Avalanche. Now with Real Coaches!
Jibblescribbits: C'mon over and waste some time
by Jibblescribbits on May 21, 2010 11:33 AM EDT up reply actions
Horton, Kovalchuk and Semin have spent all or the majority of their career in the SE division. It might be easier for shooters in that division to exceed their expected shooting percentage because of the below average defensive performance of the teams.
One blogger looked at the performance of players in the SE division both within and outside of it. It seems to indicate below average defensive performance:
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2010/02/02/divisional-effects-part-i-southeast-division/
http://blogs.thescore.com/nhl/2010/01/22/the-southeast-division-effect/
Pittsburgh sports all the way
I don’t know. Even on a SE division team, you’re still playing 58 games against non-division opponents.
Just looking at his splits from 2008-09 for an example where he remained on the same team all season (Atlanta), his best shooting percentage by division opponents in the Eastern Conference was the Northeast at 15.5. Not that a ~12% against Atlantic opponents or ~14.4% against Southeast opponents is nothing to sneeze at.
And his performances against all three Western Conference divisions that season yielded way higher shooting percentages. 16.6% against the Central; 17.4% against the Northwest; and an astounding 30.0% against the Pacific. Of course, he played far fewer games in the West so even for someone as exceptionally talented as Kovalchuk, that’s most likely not even close to sustainable.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on May 21, 2010 12:32 AM EDT up reply actions
Against the SE division, Kovy had a 21% shooting percentage in 07-08 (which is crazy), 12% in 06-07, 18% in 05-06, and 11% in 03-04. Those were consistently the highest or slightly less than his highest shooting percentage among the divisions in the Eastern conference for each year in question. I pulled his splits from the site you linked to above.
I’d probably discard his Western conference shooting percentages just because he sees those teams once a year, which is too small a sample in my opinion to look at divisional effects. It looks like it is slightly easier for Kovy to score goals in the SE division compared to other divisions in the Eastern conference. That’s in line too with the stats that show a player’s production drops when leaving the SE division, and increases when playing in it.
And I’m a Pens fan John, and mark my words, we will beat you guys AT LEAST once next year!
Pittsburgh sports all the way
How does Holmstrom do?
Holmstrom always seems to be near the top of the list for shooting percentage. Does he not make the list because almost all of his shots come from within 6 feet or so of the net, so it’s not his shooting skill but his positioning?
have you ever done anything on where guys take their shots from? presumably getting to the net is a sustainable skill. I suspect the Holmstroms of the world would obviously appear on the list, but there’s usually some totally unexpected names when you do that kinda thing.
Getting to the net or getting open shots is one of the most persistent skills we can imagine. When a guy gets to the net a lot more or a lot less one season, we expect him to revert very strongly to his career average.
heh, well i’m glad my intuition wasn’t terribly off there. have you ever put together a database of where individual players’ shots come from? I think you referenced some such data for various Caps when you were debunking theories post WAS-MON, but I’ve never seen a dedicated post about it, I don’t think.
by Passive Voice on May 21, 2010 5:52 PM EDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Arctic Ice Hockey
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
