High and Wide Percentage by Shot Distance
by Hawerchuk on May 13, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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PrintI thought this was interesting: the percentage of shots that go wide or high and hit the crossbar at various distances from the net:
Both peak at 20 feet and above - I would have expected longer shots to go wide more often, but they actually get saved more often.
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Interesting
I’d guess some combination (a) farther away from the net there tends to be more time and space to aim your shot correctly; and (b) not many shots are taken from the side boards, so longer shots tend to be taken at a more direct angle.
I've been looking at the sky
Strongly agree with (b). Is specific shot location data available, beyond distance? I feel like the horizontal distribution of shot location wrt the goal definitely changes with distance, because it’s certainly a combination of distance and angle that makes a neutral-circumstances shot worth taking.
Has anyone done an analysis based solely on how big the net is (angle) at a given location (possible angels the shooter has that will hit the net. I just remember one of y coaching tools where I tie a rope to the base of each goalpost and show the kids how the angle changes by being closer or farther from the net and in the slot and on the boards. It works great for them to see where the “Danger Zone” is)? I’m not sure it would perform better than location (location has more information than just how much of the net is visible).
I’m wondering if high is responding as predicted because it is less influenced by location. If you think about the height of the goal doesn’t change with angle of attack. A shot taken 5 feet from the side of the net sees the same height of net (angle that will hit the net) as one 5 feet in front of the net. The the width changes but not the height.
You might also be seeing a recording bias. A wide shot could be interpreted as any number of things from a pass to getting the puck low while a high shot is high shot adding to this errant passes etc that the goalie is forced to handle are saves. Very few shots that go over the net are going to be misinterpreted as a pass.
Both peak at 20 feet and above – I would have expected longer shots to go wide more often, but they actually get saved more often.
I’m with you Gabe. BackInBlack’s explanation above is reasonable but even when the D take their shots from the exact centre of the blueline they go wide all the damn time.
I don’t know if there’s a correlation between attempted-shot distance and %blocked, do you know? That could do it (would imply less total %missed, although you’d think the bigger chunk would come from %on-net), but it’s a fishy explanation to me regardless.
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