Shooting Percentage: Expected vs Actual Based on Time since Last Shot
I spend a lot of time making lists and obscure statistical arguments about playoff-bound teams these days, but I rarely look at what I like to call "basic research". Well, here's one for my more statistically-inclined readers.
Since the early days of the "shot quality" concept, people have been aware that rebounds are more dangerous than other shots taken from the same location. In particular, shots taken 1, 2 or sometimes 3 seconds after the last shot are proportionally more dangerous than all other shots. You can see that in this table, which shows the expected number of goals and shooting percentage - based on shot location - vs the actual number of goals. The ratio of the two is the "relative danger" of a given even-strength shot:
| Time | # Sh | Expt Goals | Actl Goals | Ex S% | Act S% | Rel S% |
| 0 | 3665 | 293 | 580 | 7.99 | 15.83 | 1.98 |
| 1 | 6292 | 636 | 1105 | 10.11 | 17.56 | 1.74 |
| 2 | 7174 | 681 | 1335 | 9.49 | 18.61 | 1.96 |
| 3 | 5995 | 443 | 662 | 7.40 | 11.04 | 1.49 |
| 4 | 6568 | 411 | 450 | 6.26 | 6.85 | 1.09 |
| 5 | 7301 | 433 | 351 | 5.93 | 4.81 | 0.81 |
| 6 | 7604 | 441 | 377 | 5.80 | 4.96 | 0.86 |
| 7 | 7656 | 442 | 390 | 5.78 | 5.09 | 0.88 |
| 8 | 7519 | 431 | 365 | 5.73 | 4.85 | 0.85 |
| 9 | 7422 | 417 | 329 | 5.61 | 4.43 | 0.79 |
| 10 | 6743 | 386 | 355 | 5.73 | 5.26 | 0.92 |
| 11 | 6630 | 378 | 365 | 5.70 | 5.51 | 0.97 |
| 12 | 6178 | 344 | 339 | 5.57 | 5.49 | 0.99 |
| 13 | 5817 | 337 | 304 | 5.79 | 5.23 | 0.90 |
| 14 | 5625 | 314 | 282 | 5.59 | 5.01 | 0.90 |
| 15 | 5495 | 299 | 320 | 5.45 | 5.82 | 1.07 |
| 16 | 5116 | 285 | 287 | 5.57 | 5.61 | 1.01 |
| 17 | 5118 | 284 | 284 | 5.54 | 5.55 | 1.00 |
| 18 | 4940 | 276 | 259 | 5.58 | 5.24 | 0.94 |
| 19 | 4881 | 268 | 237 | 5.50 | 4.86 | 0.88 |
| 20 | 4666 | 260 | 268 | 5.57 | 5.74 | 1.03 |
There are a couple of interesting phenomena here. First, I was surprised to see that shooting percentage is significantly lower than expected for shots taken 5-9 seconds after the last shot, while for 10+ seconds there's no difference. I don't see a good reason why shots would be less dangerous in that time frame - while they're not rebounds, they still imply that the attacking team recovered the puck and got an opportunity to shoot on net. I don't doubt that the collective wisdom of my readers will present an obvious explanation for what's baffling me at the moment.
The second thing that surprised me is the "zero-second" rebound. In other words, two shots taken in such quick succession that no time elapsed on the clock. We've seen bias in pretty much every other subjective measure recorded by NHL scorers, so it's no surprise that there's a 3.5-1 variation in "zero-second" rebounds across the league:
| fla | 250 | dal | 121 | buf | 87 |
| nyi | 222 | col | 118 | pho | 86 |
| det | 213 | nj | 116 | cls | 82 |
| sj | 187 | nyr | 107 | edm | 79 |
| van | 171 | ott | 104 | la | 79 |
| tor | 170 | bos | 101 | min | 79 |
| atl | 160 | ana | 100 | mon | 78 |
| chi | 156 | was | 99 | nsh | 75 |
| cgy | 152 | phi | 97 | car | 74 |
| tb | 141 | stl | 89 | pit | 72 |
Tom Awad had previously pointed out the irregularities in Florida. There's much less variation in other recorded shots:
| Time | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
| Max/Min | 3.5 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.9 |
The ratio of the highest-shooting rink to the lowest-shooting rink on non-rebound shots is approximately 1.3, which is slightly larger than what we'd expect given how many shots are taken in games played by the highest-pace teams vs the lowest-pace teams, but it doesn't indicate a massive recording bias. But there is a huge amount of variation in the total number of rebounds recorded in each rink:
| fla | 1299 |
| car | 1172 |
| col | 1152 |
| mon | 1126 |
| edm | 1116 |
| nyi | 1115 |
| tor | 1071 |
| sj | 1069 |
| nyr | 1062 |
| ott | 1061 |
| tb | 1052 |
| nsh | 1010 |
| la | 994 |
| was | 992 |
| atl | 985 |
| pho | 978 |
| buf | 976 |
| phi | 974 |
| cgy | 955 |
| pit | 955 |
| ana | 928 |
| min | 915 |
| stl | 893 |
| van | 889 |
| dal | 862 |
| det | 852 |
| nj | 832 |
| bos | 816 |
| cls | 815 |
| chi | 778 |
Rebounds were considered to be all shots that were taken 0-4 seconds after a previous shot. The difference between Florida and Chicago is about 125 shots per season (I used 2005-09 in my database) which amounts to something like extra goals expected goals per season. It's possible that the rebound total variations aren't due to scorer bias, but I have my doubts. I'll check into that at some future date.
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"Late" Rebounds
My only thought on the 5 to 10 second drop-off would be that after 3/4 seconds a goaltender has basically recovered from the original shot, thus allowing them to be set for the rebound.
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I think it’s something a bit more structural. For example, defensemen – who are systematically weaker shooters than forwards – might be taking more of those shots.
Perhaps it reflects that shots taken off the rush are more effective? This might make the initial shot more dangerous than a followup after the goalie has had 5+ seconds to recover.
I've been looking at the sky
by Back In Black on Apr 8, 2010 10:50 AM EDT up reply actions
Have you controlled for the defending team getting a line change between the initial and second shots? You might be seeing a higher success rate when the second shot comes after the team on offense has pinned the defending team in their zone for 10+ seconds.
It wouldn’t surprise me at all if there’s a large rink bias in rebound totals. I know I’ve watched games where there’s a scramble around the net, the puck hits the goalie three or four times, and one shot is put up on the board. If one rink says that the “ancillary” saves don’t count because there wasn’t a chance of the players putting the puck in, how realistic is that, honestly?
I get the impression that shots are somewhat, but probably not drastically, undercounted in nearly every arena in the league.
When I first saw that picture, I thought “Holy crap! Tomas Vokoun looks like he’s 6’7”!" Then I realized it was Marty St. Louis in the foreground.
Unrelated, but does anyone do more in depth CORSI breakdowns? Is there a group of shooters that are terrible at hitting the net? What % of defenceman’s shots get blocked compared to forwards? Does Alex Kovalev have a high percentage of shots that miss the net compared to league average? Does Mathieu Schneider get a larger percentage of his point shots blocked than normal?
More curiousities than anything from past observations.
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I think part of it is neurological
I think there is a priming effect of the previous shot on the goalie. I think if you test anyone’s reaction time it will be better if the events to which one is reacting happen fairly frequently like 5 seconds apart but it will decline if the events are more than 10 seconds apart. Just 5 seconds after a shot a goalie has the last shot fresh in his mind, he’s still mentally aroused but as has been pointed out, he has had plenty of time to get set in the proper position and to cut down the angle.
Faceoffs after whistles might explain the decreased shooting %...
What about this scenario: offensive team takes a shot, and it takes a second or two for the goalie to freeze the puck, the referee to blow the play down, and for the timekeeper to stop the clock.
Then, after the draw, it will take a second or two for the offensive team to gain possession. However, since the offensive forwards are in such close proximity to the defenders, they are significantly less likely to be taking shots that quickly after a draw. Add another couple seconds for the puck to get back to the point and for the puck to get through to the net and for the event tracker to record the shot. So the shots that do get through will be more likely to come from defenders at the point, explaining a lower shooting percentage.
Adding up all those seconds-or-two gives 6 seconds – and a second or two is probably a bit of an underestimate, especially if we add in d to d passes at the point. That covers the 5-9 second range pretty nicely.
by Jamie Czerwinski on Apr 8, 2010 10:27 PM EDT reply actions

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