I've looked at even strength save percentage for all goalies from 1997-2010. The data for 1997-1998 for special teams on the NHL.com web site has been fixed and I am now including it. In part 1 I looked at goalie age and even strength save percentage. In part 2, I look at the trend of even strength save percentage over time.
Unweighted
A first look at the relationship comes from unweighted data. Each goalie is one data point, whether he played 1 game or 80. Here is the scatter plot:
Model Summary
|
|
R |
R Square |
Adjusted R Square |
Std. Error of the Estimate |
|
|
.03 |
.00 |
.00 |
.04 |
ANOVA
|
|
|
Sum of Squares |
df |
Mean Square |
F |
Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Regression |
.00 |
1 |
.00 |
1.09 |
.30 |
|
|
Residual |
1.27 |
1033 |
.00 |
|
|
|
|
Total |
1.27 |
1034 |
|
|
|
Coefficients
|
|
|
B |
Std. Error |
Beta |
t |
Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
(Constant) |
.31 |
.57 |
.00 |
.54 |
.68 |
|
|
Year |
.00 |
.00 |
.03 |
1.04 |
.30 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Not a lot there.
Weighted
We can rerun the regression, using shots faced as a weighting factor. The scatter plot of the means does look promising:
And there is a significant relationship.
Model Summary
|
|
R |
R Square |
Adjusted R Square |
Std. Error of the Estimate |
|
|
.61 |
.38 |
.38 |
.00 |
ANOVA
|
|
|
Sum of Squares |
df |
Mean Square |
F |
Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
Regression |
0.0000 |
1.0000 |
0.0000 |
6.0317 |
0.0339 |
|
|
Residual |
0.0001 |
10.0000 |
0.0000 |
|
|
|
|
Total |
0.0001 |
11.0000 |
|
|
|
Coefficients
|
|
|
B |
Std. Error |
Beta |
t |
Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
(Constant) |
0.06538 |
0.35000 |
0.00000 |
0.19000 |
0.88000 |
|
|
Year |
0.00043 |
0.00020 |
0.61340 |
2.45600 |
0.03390 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
So not a huge effect from year to year, but over the 12 years the predicted average even strength save percentage does go from 0.914 to 0.919. As an aside, the 1997-1998 data put this over the hump in terms of statistical significance. Looking at the trend in overall save percentage, I suspect that, if we go back further, the trend continues. If anyone has the data from the years before 1997 and would like to make it available to me I would be deeply appreciative. If not, I can see if I can construct it myself.
Conclusion
There is a statistically significant relationship between year and even strength save percentage.
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