FanPost

Beating Save Percentage to Death Part 2: Year

I've looked at even strength save percentage for all goalies from 1997-2010. The data for 1997-1998 for special teams on the NHL.com web site has been fixed and I am now including it. In part 1 I looked at goalie age and even strength save percentage. In part 2, I look at the trend of even strength save percentage over time.

 

Unweighted

A first look at the relationship comes from unweighted data. Each goalie is one data point, whether he played 1 game or 80. Here is the scatter plot:

 

Yearunwt_bmp_medium

via 2.bp.blogspot.com

Model Summary

 

 

R

R Square

Adjusted R Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

 

.03

.00

.00

.04

ANOVA

 

 

 

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

F

Significance

 

Regression

.00

1

.00

1.09

.30

 

Residual

1.27

1033

.00

 

 

 

Total

1.27

1034

 

 

 

Coefficients

 

 

 

B

Std. Error

Beta

t

Significance

 

(Constant)

.31

.57

.00

.54

.68

 

Year

.00

.00

.03

1.04

.30

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Not a lot there.

 

Weighted

We can rerun the regression, using shots faced as a weighting factor. The scatter plot of the means does look promising:

 

Yearwt_bmp_medium

via 2.bp.blogspot.com

And there is a significant relationship.

 

Model Summary

 

 

R

R Square

Adjusted R Square

Std. Error of the Estimate

 

.61

.38

.38

.00

ANOVA

 

 

 

Sum of Squares

df

Mean Square

F

Significance

 

Regression

0.0000

1.0000

0.0000

6.0317

0.0339

 

Residual

0.0001

10.0000

0.0000

 

 

 

Total

0.0001

11.0000

 

 

 

Coefficients

 

 

 

B

Std. Error

Beta

t

Significance

 

(Constant)

0.06538

0.35000

0.00000

0.19000

0.88000

 

Year

0.00043

0.00020

0.61340

2.45600

0.03390

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So not a huge effect from year to year, but over the 12 years the predicted average even strength save percentage does go from 0.914 to 0.919. As an aside, the 1997-1998 data put this over the hump in terms of statistical significance. Looking at the trend in overall save percentage, I suspect that, if we go back further, the trend continues. If anyone has the data from the years before 1997 and would like to make it available to me I would be deeply appreciative. If not, I can see if I can construct it myself.

 

Conclusion

There is a statistically significant relationship between year and even strength save percentage.

If this FanPost is written by someone other than one of the blog's editors, the opinions expressed in it do not necessarily reflect those of this blog or SB Nation.

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