Sharks-Avs: Shots and Scoring Chances

Thanks to the guys at the Copper and Blue, we have annotated scoring chances for Games 2-5 of the Colorado-San Jose series.  I wanted to see if there was any evidence that the Avs were getting better opportunities, on average, per shot, than the Sharks.  This table shows what happened when the game was tied over those four games: shots for/against, scoring chances for/against at even-strength, and other scoring chances.

 

Tied Seconds SF SA EV SCF EV SCA Oth SCF Oth SCA
Game 5  1705 35 20 10 4 1 0
Game 4  2889 57 43 17 7 1 1
Game 3  3651 93 33 19 5 7 0
Game 2  1484 14 13 4 9 2 1
Totals  9729 199 109 50 25 11 2
Corsi  64.6 66.7

 

If the Avs were creating higher quality chances, then the Scoring Chance Corsi (66.7%) would be significantly smaller than the Shot Corsi (64.6%).  That, of course, is not what happened, which indicates that Colorado's average shot was no more dangerous than San Jose's.  What did happen is that Colorado buried 5 out of 27 chances (and got one goal on a non-chance), while San Jose put away just three of 61 chances.

You could conceivably argue that Colorado had a higher shooting percentage because they were getting better chances, on average, than San Jose.  But to argue that the chances were the same and Colorado is simply better, as a group, at finishing their chances?  That's a deep, dark hole you'd be digging.

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