Playoff Preview - San Jose vs Colorado
by Hawerchuk on Apr 14, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
Email
PrintI'm just going to throw a couple of statistics out at you: the ratios of shots for to shots against; on the road; even-strength; with the score tied, as well as the PDO (shot% + save%) in this situation:
| PCT | RANK | PDO | RANK | |
| SJ | 51.4 | 4 | 987 | 24 |
| COL | 41.2 | 30 | 1014 | 2 |
That, my friends, is this past season in a nutshell. San Jose ultimately did a good job of controlling the puck, and despite their good goaltending outcomes, had some bad shooting luck and didn't win quite as many games as we might have expected them to. Colorado, on the other hand, got absolutely shelled but had great goaltending and great shooting luck. Only Chicago and Washington were in Colorado's league as far as PDO goes, and both of them are up there because of what would seem to be better actual shooting talent than anyone else.
Back when Colorado was playing bad and winning, I suppose you could discount all of my concerns. I mean, so what if they were getting destroyed on scoring chances? They were a young team/hungry to win/nothing to lose/something to prove/loose/intense/all wearing their wrist bracelets/not prone to losing streaks because they would go after slump busters. But they laid an 0-7-6 regulation stretch on us to end the season where their magic shooting touch disappeared (7.6%) and their goaltending was weak (885 Save Pct). In other words, we know what happens when things break the wrong way for the Avs.
You might think that Colorado was at least good on the PP, but you'd be wrong:
| 5v4/4v5 | SF/60 | SA/60 |
| SJ | 61.2 | 52 |
| COL | 49.1 | 54.2 |
Ok, so now we know that San Jose controls the puck at evens, has a much better PP than Colorado and the PK is a wash. Is there any aspect of the game where Colorado's better than San Jose? Just one: goaltending. Craig Anderson is a vastly better goaltender than Evgeni Nabokov, even if Nabokov has somehow managed to put up respectable numbers this season. Even so, that moves this series from San Jose as a 62% favorite in each game to 59% San Jose or thereabouts. Which puts SJ at 70% to win this series.
For Colorado to win, they will need lots and lots and lots of luck. Too bad they used it up the first dozen games of the season.
Sharks in 5.
7 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I’m a Sharks fan, but not a Nabby Kool-Aid drinker. Yet, I wonder why you say Anderson is ‘vastly’ better. I’d probably give a slight edge to Nabby, which may be downgraded to a wash since he’s played so many games.
Since the lockout: Craig Anderson save percentage = .916; Nabokov = .910. Nabby sucked for four seasons; he didn’t become good this year.
Do you say that because Nabokov’s uptick is a statistical anomoly, or because it’s not possible to become good at his age?
It’s very rare for a player to improve. (I know Tie Domi quit smoking and became a better player, but that’s an anomaly.) So you have to ask yourself – is Nabokov the guy who didn’t get it done for hundreds of games since 2005-06? Or is the guy who put up some big numbers for part of 2009-10? I usually bet the former.
The 09-10 Avs remind me of the 93-94 Sharks (I won $3 from a Ukrainian friend when they beat his man Fedorov’s Red Wings in 7). Anderson = Irbe? (Or Nabokov = Essensa?) Any idea how the 93-94 Sharks/Wings matchup would rank according to the stats we have now— would it be less of an upset than it seemed then, and less of an upset than this year’s Avs beating this year’s Sharks would be?
I know the 09-10 Sharks are a better team than the Avs, and I don’t believe the Sharks are jinxed or chokers (wasn’t Barry Bonds before the 2002 playoffs?— not to mention that previous Sharks teams didn’t have Heatley, Nichol, Ortmeyer, Couture, Wallin, etc.), but if someone were willing to offer me $3, I would say puck luck beats talent. Avs in 7.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
