Forget the Avs: let's worry about the Sharks!
by Hawerchuk on Mar 19, 2010 9:00 AM EDT
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PrintFor several seasons, the San Jose Sharks have combined strong 5-on-5 offense with defense that prevented their opponents from getting shots against them. In each of the last two seasons, the Sharks have had the 4th-best shot differential at 5-on-5 in the league. But this year, they can't play defense anymore:
| GF/60 | SF/60 | OSV% | GA/60 | SA/60 | SV% | Goal+/- | Shot+/- | PDO | |
| 2007-08 | 2.2 | 28.4 | 923 | 2.1 | 23.4 | 911 | 0.1 | 5.0 | 988 |
| 2008-09 | 2.2 | 30.9 | 928 | 2.0 | 25.9 | 924 | 0.3 | 5.0 | 996 |
| 2009-10 | 2.8 | 30.8 | 909 | 2.2 | 30.5 | 928 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1019 |
This is surprising because San Jose has five skilled face-off men and has put up the 2nd-best faceoff percentage since the NHL started recording the data in 1997:
| Team | Season | FO% |
| CAR | 2001-02 | 56.1 |
| SJS | 2009-10 | 55.9 |
| PHI | 1998-99 | 55.4 |
| ANA | 2003-04 | 55.3 |
| WSH | 2000-01 | 55.2 |
| ANA | 2002-03 | 55.2 |
| DET | 2008-09 | 55.1 |
| DAL | 1997-98 | 54.9 |
| CAR | 2000-01 | 54.9 |
| CAR | 2003-04 | 54.9 |
It's amazing that San Jose can be so prolific in the face-off circle yet control shots so poorly. With just average face-off takers, San Jose would be a complete disaster. Actually they're already a disaster - here's their rank in Corsi% (=SF/(SF+SA)) by period in one-goal and tie game this season:
| Corsi% | Up 1 | Tied | Down 1 |
| 1st/2nd | 23 | 30 | 27 |
| 3rd<18 | 14 | 19 | 23 |
The only thing that's keeping the Sharks in the game is Evgeni Nabokov's high save percentage.
| EV | PK | |
| 2007-08 | 918 | 895 |
| 2008-09 | 920 | 854 |
| 2009-10 | 930 | 911 |
There's no doubt about it: Nabokov is playing way over his head. If we expect Craig Anderson to come down a bit over the next couple of months, we should logically expect Nabokov to crash hard. The irony is that Nabokov put up his best numbers in San Jose's weakest season in recent memory - had he played in good luck like this in either of the last two seasons, the Sharks could be very well be laughing at their many detractors while drinking from the Stanley Cup.
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Scanning their numbers, it’s not their defense:
- Boyle: re-developed himself into a good 2-way defenseman last year
- Blake: not awful for an offensive defenseman
- Huskins: Very capable defensive defenseman
- Murray: Unsung for his consistently strong defensive abilities
- Vlasic: Pretty much as good as Murray, if not better.
- Demers: Rookie, but looks good so far
Murray/Vlasic had ~2.8 PCD/60 2 years ago and ~2.0 PCD/60 last year, putting them both near the top of the league.
Maybe they need Ehrhoff, currently ranked the #6 defenseman in GVT …
“It was critical for the Sharks to move Ehrhoff (and his contract) in order to improve the defense.” – you, Sep 23/09. (hee hee!).
It’s probably just luck?
I think Rob Blake is almost done. Murray didn’t play with Vlasic last year.
If you saw Ehrhoff get destroyed by Ryane Clowe last night, you’d agree he can’t play defense.
The problem with the Sharks is across-the-board. Thornton and Clowe have not controlled the play this season. And the bottom end of the roster is weaker. Joslin and Leach play too much, and Scott Nichol has not played well.
On contrary, Scott Nichol has played very well for the Sharks. The sharks’ bottom 6 is arguably better than it was last year.
Joslin is back in the AHL and won’t be cracking the lineup for the rest of this playoff push. Leach is 8th on the depth chart behind Huskins and Wallin.
Patty Marleau: An Erotic Life
Picked overall #2
Admonish man-crush
Trade rumors abound
Turns-around career
Year of the Cup?
by Will Bulldozer on Mar 19, 2010 12:40 PM EDT up reply actions
I know he’s small and scrappy, but what is your evidence that Scott Nichol has played well this season? (Aside from face-offs.)
He plays mostly against other teams’ 3rd lines, and he has the worst shot differential on the team.
okay… who is this Dru?
Patty Marleau: An Erotic Life
Picked overall #2
Admonish man-crush
Trade rumors abound
Turns-around career
Year of the Cup?
by Will Bulldozer on Mar 19, 2010 3:47 PM EDT up reply actions
can you spot the link for me? can’t find his shot differential on the site.
But, if Nichol has one of highest f/o percentages in the league, but he has the worst shot differential on the team, then can’t automatically deduce that he is the cause of the shot differential and conclude that he has not played well this season.
There has to be other significant contributing factors. One of those factors is that while Nichol is often matched up against other team’s 3rd lines, he also sees minutes on the PK and game-changing situations. Nichol is a 4th line center, and his limitations are evident when he plays outside that role.
Patty Marleau: An Erotic Life
Picked overall #2
Admonish man-crush
Trade rumors abound
Turns-around career
Year of the Cup?
by Will Bulldozer on Mar 19, 2010 3:46 PM EDT up reply actions
http://www.behindthenet.ca/2009/new_5_on_5.php?sort=32§ion=corsi&mingp=&mintoi=&team=S.J&pos=
Nichol’s shot differential is -9.7 per 60. That’s the worst for regular Sharks players, Staubitz not included as a regular. Nichol is 12th among forwards in Quality of Competition.
If you switch to the faceoffs reports, he starts with 44.5% offensive zone draws. But Malhotra starts out with even fewer and has a positive Corsi. Nichol does play with weaker teammates.
Nichol does play 2nd line PK, which has some value.
Vlasic has taken a few steps back in his development this year. He’s also injured.
Demers has looked good as primarily a PowerPlay specialist, but his defensive abilities leave much to be desired.
Huskins is very capable as a bottom pairing defenseman when he’s not paired up against the opposing team’s best line.
Father time is creeping up with Rob Blake.
Wallin has been a nice addition to the roster. He has a physical edge and is defensively sound. But he is not a top 4 d-man.
It is their defense.
Patty Marleau: An Erotic Life
Picked overall #2
Admonish man-crush
Trade rumors abound
Turns-around career
Year of the Cup?
by Will Bulldozer on Mar 19, 2010 12:44 PM EDT up reply actions
something is screwy
Gabe,
Vic’s TOI script shows the Sharks as currently having a .515 corsi percentage w/game tied. That’s way different than the numbers you’ve posted. What’s up?
http://www.timeonice.com/playershots0910tied.php?team=S.J&first=20000&last=22000
by sunnymehta.com on Mar 19, 2010 12:12 PM EDT reply actions
That is strange. I have SJ at 51% overall tied, but 44% in the 1st and 2nd and 48% in the first 18 minutes of the 3rd. I know they’ve outshot their opponents by a huge margin in OT, but it doesn’t seem like it would make up the difference.
yeah that doesn’t seem right, particularly the 44% number. can you list the full distribution w/ice time included?
also, i’ve been thinking lately that we might draw better conclusions from studies like this (i.e. the recent posts you’ve had on corsi %) if we use road numbers only.
by sunnymehta.com on Mar 19, 2010 3:53 PM EDT up reply actions
I was thinking the exact same thing about home/road splits. A change in minor official personnel at the Shark Tank might explain the double anomaly of opposition shots going up and Nabokov’s Sv% going up. Another thought is change of shot quality? More shots from outside or whatever. Seems unlikely given the Sharks have the same goalie and coach as last year, but maybe they’ve changed their system?
Writer for The Copper & Blue and primary shareholder of Zorg Industries
"Never be ashamed of who you are" -- Jean-Baptiste Emanuel Zorg
by Bruce McCurdy on Mar 20, 2010 4:28 PM EDT up reply actions
Mark Twain once said....
there’s lies, there’s damned lies, then there’s statistics.
Off topic
Gabe,
FYI: Sent you an e-mail about your face-off data. (Making sure your e-mail is info@behindthenet.ca yes?)
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by Jibblescribbits on Mar 19, 2010 3:35 PM EDT reply actions
Gabe is (obviously) correct: the bottom end of the lineup is what’s causing their weak shot differential. Demers, Nichol, Shelly, Staubitz have all put up poor numbers against weak opposition. Ironically, thanks to their goaltending, all of these players have decent to good +/-.
BTW, Rob, GVT tends to like offensive defensemen like Ehrhoff, but the fact is even his underlyings have been great with Vancouver. Ehrhoff, like Brian Campbell, is the type of player who has great value if you can afford to use him only in a role that he excels at.
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