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Forget the Avs: let’s worry about the Sharks!

For several seasons, the San Jose Sharks have combined strong 5-on-5 offense with defense that prevented their opponents from getting shots against them. In each of the last two seasons, the Sharks have had the 4th-best shot differential at 5-on-5 in the league. But this year, they can’t play defense anymore:

 

GF/60 SF/60 OSV% GA/60 SA/60 SV% Goal+/- Shot+/- PDO
2007-08 2.2 28.4 923 2.1 23.4 911 0.1 5.0 988
2008-09 2.2 30.9 928 2.0 25.9 924 0.3 5.0 996
2009-10 2.8 30.8 909 2.2 30.5 928 0.6 0.3 1019

 

This is surprising because San Jose has five skilled face-off men and has put up the 2nd-best faceoff percentage since the NHL started recording the data in 1997:

 

Team Season FO%
CAR 2001-02 56.1
SJS 2009-10 55.9
PHI 1998-99 55.4
ANA 2003-04 55.3
WSH 2000-01 55.2
ANA 2002-03 55.2
DET 2008-09 55.1
DAL 1997-98 54.9
CAR 2000-01 54.9
CAR 2003-04 54.9

 

It's amazing that San Jose can be so prolific in the face-off circle yet control shots so poorly.  With just average face-off takers, San Jose would be a complete disaster.  Actually they're already a disaster – here's their rank in Corsi% (=SF/(SF+SA)) by period in one-goal and tie game this season:

 

Corsi% Up 1 Tied Down 1
1st/2nd 23 30 27
3rd<18 14 19 23

 

The only thing that’s keeping the Sharks in the game is Evgeni Nabokov‘s high save percentage.

 

EV PK
2007-08 918 895
2008-09 920 854
2009-10 930 911

 

There’s no doubt about it: Nabokov is playing way over his head. If we expect Craig Anderson to come down a bit over the next couple of months, we should logically expect Nabokov to crash hard. The irony is that Nabokov put up his best numbers in San Jose’s weakest season in recent memory – had he played in good luck like this in either of the last two seasons, the Sharks could be very well be laughing at their many detractors while drinking from the Stanley Cup.

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