Corsi Percentage by Period

by Hawerchuk on Mar 18, 2010 9:00 AM EDT

I got a few questions about Monday's piece on Corsi Percentage at even-strength with the scored tied. In particular, people wanted to see how Corsi Percentage varied by lead and by period. There is a significant effect:

	Up 1	Tied	Down 1
1st/2nd	48.1	50	51.9
3rd<18 mins	43.3	50	56.7
Total	46.1	50	53.9

Being up or down one goal has only the most minimal effect on shot rates during the first two periods. But in the third period, the team that's up goes into a defensive shell, while the team that's down pinches and takes chances. Here are team statistics and rankings in the first two periods:

	Up 1/1-2	Tied/1-2	Down 1/1-2	Rank Up	Rank Down
chi	54.6	56.5	64.1	1	1
pit	50.9	54.4	51.8	4	15
phi	49.1	53.7	50.2	11	21
tb	50.7	53.1	51.5	5	18
stl	50.0	52.8	54.7	7	6
nj	49.6	52.5	49.1	10	26
pho	48.1	52.5	52.8	18	12
buf	49.9	51.3	51.7	9	17
bos	48.1	51.2	45.2	16	29
ana	47.2	51.1	53.0	21	10
tor	50.2	50.9	52.9	6	11
ott	48.1	50.8	55.5	17	5
min	48.2	50.7	49.4	15	23
la	53.8	50.6	56.2	2	3
van	46.4	50.6	54.1	25	9
nsh	47.2	50.4	51.2	22	19
dal	51.0	50.2	54.2	3	8
car	47.6	49.8	57.6	19	2
det	49.9	49.7	46.6	8	28
cls	44.9	49.6	49.2	26	25
mon	42.9	49.6	54.6	30	7
atl	48.7	49.4	51.7	12	16
cgy	48.4	49.2	50.2	14	20
edm	44.8	47.3	56.1	27	4
was	43.5	46.1	52.5	29	13
nyr	44.6	45.9	44.4	28	30
nyi	48.6	45.8	49.2	13	24
fla	47.3	45.7	50.1	20	22
col	47.1	44.8	52.5	24	14
sj	47.1	44.1	47.4	23	27

Chicago dominates, as usual. The 3rd period looks a little different:

	Up 1/3rd	Tied/3rd	Down 1/3rd	Rank Up	Rank Down
chi	47.4	61.3	68.8	6	1
det	50.0	58.4	64.0	3	4
phi	49.7	57.5	63.6	4	6
nj	49.2	56.3	52.9	5	24
buf	37.3	56.2	65.2	28	2
tor	52.5	55.7	64.8	1	3
stl	39.4	53.4	55.8	22	18
pit	40.8	51.6	52.6	20	25
la	44.5	51.6	56.3	13	15
was	42.6	51.3	54.2	18	20
cgy	45.6	51.3	62.9	11	7
nyr	40.5	51.1	56.6	21	14
nsh	43.1	50.9	63.9	17	5
atl	28.2	50.7	49.6	30	28
ott	45.6	50.6	61.3	10	9
tb	46.0	50.6	52.2	8	26
cls	43.5	50.2	55.9	16	17
van	46.2	50.0	59.1	7	11
sj	44.2	48.5	53.3	14	23
car	41.8	48.0	53.9	19	21
bos	50.3	47.7	62.0	2	8
edm	44.6	47.5	54.4	12	19
ana	38.4	47.3	61.1	26	10
pho	45.7	47.0	56.0	9	16
dal	37.2	46.9	56.9	29	13
fla	38.1	45.4	44.0	27	30
min	43.6	43.7	53.7	15	22
mon	38.6	42.3	58.9	24	12
col	39.1	40.8	49.0	23	29
nyi	38.6	36.7	51.7	25	27

The Colorado Avalanche were really the impetus for this post, and I don't think there's a method to their outshooting madness: they're 29th in Corsi % early and late in tie games. They back off when they're up no matter which period it is, and they're 29th in the league at outshooting their opponents in the 3rd period. They're essentially the anti-Leafs: good goaltending instead of bad, skilled shooting instead of unskilled, and a very low shot volume as opposed to a very high one.

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Comments

The statistical outliers met last night and Toskola actually managed to get the W thanks largely due to horrible 2nd-night decision-making by the Avs. Immovable Object 1, Unstoppable Force 0.

The Avalanche, clearly, are down with No PP.

by Mike @ MHH on Mar 18, 2010 10:29 AM EDT reply actions

How well do each of the six different statistics correlate to winning percentage? Do you have data from past years to get a larger sample?

by et_pitt on Mar 18, 2010 10:33 AM EDT reply actions

Corsi % with the score tied has an R^2 of about 50% with winning. +1 and -1 bump it up to 60%. After that, you’ve got goalie talent, penalty differential and a small amount of shot quality.

by Hawerchuk on Mar 18, 2010 11:11 AM EDT up reply actions