I got a few questions about Monday's piece on Corsi Percentage at even-strength with the scored tied. In particular, people wanted to see how Corsi Percentage varied by lead and by period. There is a significant effect:
| Up 1 | Tied | Down 1 | |
| 1st/2nd | 48.1 | 50 | 51.9 |
| 3rd<18 mins | 43.3 | 50 | 56.7 |
| Total | 46.1 | 50 | 53.9 |
Being up or down one goal has only the most minimal effect on shot rates during the first two periods. But in the third period, the team that's up goes into a defensive shell, while the team that's down pinches and takes chances. Here are team statistics and rankings in the first two periods:
| Up 1/1-2 | Tied/1-2 | Down 1/1-2 | Rank Up | Rank Down | |
| chi | 54.6 | 56.5 | 64.1 | 1 | 1 |
| pit | 50.9 | 54.4 | 51.8 | 4 | 15 |
| phi | 49.1 | 53.7 | 50.2 | 11 | 21 |
| tb | 50.7 | 53.1 | 51.5 | 5 | 18 |
| stl | 50.0 | 52.8 | 54.7 | 7 | 6 |
| nj | 49.6 | 52.5 | 49.1 | 10 | 26 |
| pho | 48.1 | 52.5 | 52.8 | 18 | 12 |
| buf | 49.9 | 51.3 | 51.7 | 9 | 17 |
| bos | 48.1 | 51.2 | 45.2 | 16 | 29 |
| ana | 47.2 | 51.1 | 53.0 | 21 | 10 |
| tor | 50.2 | 50.9 | 52.9 | 6 | 11 |
| ott | 48.1 | 50.8 | 55.5 | 17 | 5 |
| min | 48.2 | 50.7 | 49.4 | 15 | 23 |
| la | 53.8 | 50.6 | 56.2 | 2 | 3 |
| van | 46.4 | 50.6 | 54.1 | 25 | 9 |
| nsh | 47.2 | 50.4 | 51.2 | 22 | 19 |
| dal | 51.0 | 50.2 | 54.2 | 3 | 8 |
| car | 47.6 | 49.8 | 57.6 | 19 | 2 |
| det | 49.9 | 49.7 | 46.6 | 8 | 28 |
| cls | 44.9 | 49.6 | 49.2 | 26 | 25 |
| mon | 42.9 | 49.6 | 54.6 | 30 | 7 |
| atl | 48.7 | 49.4 | 51.7 | 12 | 16 |
| cgy | 48.4 | 49.2 | 50.2 | 14 | 20 |
| edm | 44.8 | 47.3 | 56.1 | 27 | 4 |
| was | 43.5 | 46.1 | 52.5 | 29 | 13 |
| nyr | 44.6 | 45.9 | 44.4 | 28 | 30 |
| nyi | 48.6 | 45.8 | 49.2 | 13 | 24 |
| fla | 47.3 | 45.7 | 50.1 | 20 | 22 |
| col | 47.1 | 44.8 | 52.5 | 24 | 14 |
| sj | 47.1 | 44.1 | 47.4 | 23 | 27 |
Chicago dominates, as usual. The 3rd period looks a little different:
| Up 1/3rd | Tied/3rd | Down 1/3rd | Rank Up | Rank Down | |
| chi | 47.4 | 61.3 | 68.8 | 6 | 1 |
| det | 50.0 | 58.4 | 64.0 | 3 | 4 |
| phi | 49.7 | 57.5 | 63.6 | 4 | 6 |
| nj | 49.2 | 56.3 | 52.9 | 5 | 24 |
| buf | 37.3 | 56.2 | 65.2 | 28 | 2 |
| tor | 52.5 | 55.7 | 64.8 | 1 | 3 |
| stl | 39.4 | 53.4 | 55.8 | 22 | 18 |
| pit | 40.8 | 51.6 | 52.6 | 20 | 25 |
| la | 44.5 | 51.6 | 56.3 | 13 | 15 |
| was | 42.6 | 51.3 | 54.2 | 18 | 20 |
| cgy | 45.6 | 51.3 | 62.9 | 11 | 7 |
| nyr | 40.5 | 51.1 | 56.6 | 21 | 14 |
| nsh | 43.1 | 50.9 | 63.9 | 17 | 5 |
| atl | 28.2 | 50.7 | 49.6 | 30 | 28 |
| ott | 45.6 | 50.6 | 61.3 | 10 | 9 |
| tb | 46.0 | 50.6 | 52.2 | 8 | 26 |
| cls | 43.5 | 50.2 | 55.9 | 16 | 17 |
| van | 46.2 | 50.0 | 59.1 | 7 | 11 |
| sj | 44.2 | 48.5 | 53.3 | 14 | 23 |
| car | 41.8 | 48.0 | 53.9 | 19 | 21 |
| bos | 50.3 | 47.7 | 62.0 | 2 | 8 |
| edm | 44.6 | 47.5 | 54.4 | 12 | 19 |
| ana | 38.4 | 47.3 | 61.1 | 26 | 10 |
| pho | 45.7 | 47.0 | 56.0 | 9 | 16 |
| dal | 37.2 | 46.9 | 56.9 | 29 | 13 |
| fla | 38.1 | 45.4 | 44.0 | 27 | 30 |
| min | 43.6 | 43.7 | 53.7 | 15 | 22 |
| mon | 38.6 | 42.3 | 58.9 | 24 | 12 |
| col | 39.1 | 40.8 | 49.0 | 23 | 29 |
| nyi | 38.6 | 36.7 | 51.7 | 25 | 27 |
The Colorado Avalanche were really the impetus for this post, and I don't think there's a method to their outshooting madness: they're 29th in Corsi % early and late in tie games. They back off when they're up no matter which period it is, and they're 29th in the league at outshooting their opponents in the 3rd period. They're essentially the anti-Leafs: good goaltending instead of bad, skilled shooting instead of unskilled, and a very low shot volume as opposed to a very high one.
