Olympic Hockey Gold (and Silver and Bronze) Odds

by Hawerchuk on Feb 25, 2010 12:17 PM EST

People were betting on four outcomes yesterday: 1) USA over Switzerland handily; 2) Canada to beat Russia in a tight game; 3) Czechs over Finland in a tight game; and 4) Sweden over Slovakia. The pre-game odds:

Round	Favorite	Win %	Underdog
QF	CAN	54	RUS
QF	SWE	63	SVK
QF	CZE	56	FIN
QF	USA	83	SUI

But the vagaries of one-game series gave us:

1) A one-goal USA win over Switzerland after two tied periods

2) A Canadian blowout of the Russians

3) The Finns squeaking by the Czechs

4) The Slovaks upsetting the Swedes

Which makes a Canada-USA final all the more likely. Working from Gold medal odds and a couple of money lines for individual games, here are the odds for all possible games going forward:

CAN	85%	SVK
USA	60%	FIN

CAN	70%	USA
CAN	75%	FIN
USA	70%	SVK
FIN	55%	SVK

This gives us the following odds for the final placements:

	CAN	USA	FIN	SVK
Gold	62%	21%	12%	5%
Silver	24%	39%	28%	10%
Bronze	11%	26%	30%	33%
Sadness	4%	14%	30%	52%

Even if the bookies are still hedging against a Canadian win, Jamie Langenbrunner has reason to look worried.

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Comments

Finns going home with less than sadness?

Its clear that Canada’s the fave to win gold, and the US the silver, but how does it work that the Slovaks have a better chance than the Finns to win bronze or sadness? I know its all math, but I just thought it was worth pointing out.

by Nuuuuugs on Feb 25, 2010 1:12 PM EST reply actions

With respect to Slovakia's odds vis-a-vis Finland...

The Finns have a greater chance of advancing to the Gold Medal Game than the Slovaks.

by JLikens on Feb 26, 2010 1:11 AM EST up reply actions

The bounces were kind to us last night (in the FIN and SVK games). What an uptick in the Gold odds.

by R O on Feb 25, 2010 1:37 PM EST reply actions

Interesting that the odds of a Canadian win over the US is higher than it was for the original matchup.

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 25, 2010 2:13 PM EST reply actions

Luongo moved the game line

by R O on Feb 25, 2010 3:12 PM EST via mobile up reply actions

I meant before the US v Canada game, unless you mean that the difference between Brodeur and Luongo is a 5% difference in game odds (the results of US v Canada cannot be considered).

Bettman's Nightmare: A Blog Where Hockey Aficionados Dismantle That Mighty Empire, One Balsillie at a Time

http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/

by Bettman's Nightmare on Feb 25, 2010 4:20 PM EST up reply actions