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Around SBN: The Infuriating Jose Molina

Opening Round Shooting Statistics

We've now had five games between legitimate teams. As often happens, the losing teams have outshot the winners in the aggregate:

Shots G Close G Far G
Winners 208 16 112 13 96 3
Losers 239 7 126 6 113 1

Indeed, the losing teams are doing a better job of getting the puck to the net - they just aren't scoring. And I think you know what I say when a team made up of NHL-caliber players shoots 4.8% on close-in shots (as the losing teams did): luck. If Russia played the Czechs 100 times, they'd probably win 55% of the time; if they played the Slovaks 100 times, they'd probably win 65%. But that doesn't mean they'll win 100% of the time if they play them each once.

Here's the overall ratio of close-in shots for and against for each team:

TM RATIO
CAN 2.42
RUS 2.14
SWE 1.60
FIN 1.44
CZE 1.22
SVK 1.18
USA 1.15
GER 0.87
SUI 0.79
BLR 0.49
NOR 0.43
LAT 0.31

A lot of good it does Canada to be #1! But, as you can see yet again, there are seven teams that belong in a world hockey tournament...and that's it.

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It’s interesting that the ratio between close shots and overall shots is similar for the losing and winning teams. I would have expected to see the losing team generate less close shots as a proportion of total shots.

by JLikens on Feb 22, 2010 11:55 AM EST reply actions  

This is certainly true for the bad teams. But it seems like it’s a feed-forward system – a team gets behind, goes for broke, gets better opportunities, the opposing goalie keeps savings them (luck!) and so they get better and better chances.

by Hawerchuk on Feb 22, 2010 12:31 PM EST up reply actions  

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