As of Saturday, New Jersey was last in the NHL with 20 points and Dallas was 2nd in the NHL with 46 points. Which is more likely – Dallas puts up 70 points over the rest of the season and finishes first in the Western Conference? Or New Jersey puts up 70 points and makes the playoffs? (Without Zach Parise, the latter is a bit harder.)
The answer would seem straightforward, but I submit to you that it's not:
| 5v5 Shot +/- | 5v4 SF/60 | 4v5 SA/60 | |
| New Jersey | +2.3 | 48.3 | 46.2 |
| Dallas | -6.1 | 53.5 | 49.5 |
Hang on to your hats, Avs fans. The Dallas Stars are the *luckiest* team in the NHL this season. (New Jersey is the unluckiest, but we already knew that.) Do we really believe that Kari Lehtonen will continue to post a .918 save percentage while Martin Brodeur posts an .887 save %? And do we really expect New Jersey to have an historically-horrible 5.7% shooting percentage?
Let me know which team is better below:
| Option | Votes |
|---|---|
| Dallas has 20+ more points | 30 |
| Dallas has 15-19 | 9 |
| Dallas has 10-14 | 28 |
| Dallas has 5-9 | 19 |
| Dallas has 1-4 | 10 |
| New Jersey has 1-4 | 13 |
| New Jersey has 5-9 | 11 |
| New Jersey has 10-14 | 13 |
| New Jersey has 15-19 | 3 |
| New Jersey has 20+ | 12 |
