Poll of the Day: New Jersey vs Dallas
by Hawerchuk on Dec 28, 2010 9:00 AM EST
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PrintAs of Saturday, New Jersey was last in the NHL with 20 points and Dallas was 2nd in the NHL with 46 points. Which is more likely - Dallas puts up 70 points over the rest of the season and finishes first in the Western Conference? Or New Jersey puts up 70 points and makes the playoffs? (Without Zach Parise, the latter is a bit harder.)
The answer would seem straightforward, but I submit to you that it's not:
| 5v5 Shot +/- | 5v4 SF/60 | 4v5 SA/60 | |
| New Jersey | +2.3 | 48.3 | 46.2 |
| Dallas | -6.1 | 53.5 | 49.5 |
Hang on to your hats, Avs fans. The Dallas Stars are the *luckiest* team in the NHL this season. (New Jersey is the unluckiest, but we already knew that.) Do we really believe that Kari Lehtonen will continue to post a .918 save percentage while Martin Brodeur posts an .887 save %? And do we really expect New Jersey to have an historically-horrible 5.7% shooting percentage?
Let me know which team is better below:
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If I may hazard an explanation for New Jersey’s woeful shooting percentage -
You already listed Rolston and Langenbrunner as two of the league’s worst shooters by location. They’re both a year older, so not only are they probably worse by location this year, their shot releases are worse. Throw in David Clarkson, whose constant wraparounds are sure to be a low percentage play, and you’ve got 3 guys likely to be shooting well below average. That doesn’t fully explain why New Jersey’s shooting is so bad, but there’s no reason to expect them to be better than 20th in the NHL – they are carrying too many guys who shoot first and shoot always.
I voted for Dallas being slightly better. Brodeur is showing his age.
Wait, does that takes score effect into accounts? Are the numbers with the score tied in the same range?
Also, the teams page on behindthenet.ca is still broken?
You have to look at the old site:
http://www.behindthenet.ca/stats_2011.html
I didn’t take into account score effects, but NJ is still ahead of Dallas, and there’s no way Dallas is in positive territory…
I have the Fenwick numbers for both teams with the score close (up to 12/23/10).
DAL – 1041 for, 1219 against
N.J – 1095 for, 1015 against
I don’t think it’s a matter of whether or not Kari Lehtonen is that good, but rather whether the Dallas defense is that good. Lehtonen has sneakily been one of the better goalies over the last few seasons.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Dec 28, 2010 10:46 AM EST reply actions
Dallas’ D is bad. They give up a ton of shots!
Atlanta didn’t think Lehtonen was any good. I’d call him league-average.
Injuries
He’s on pace to play 62, his highest GPI since 06-07 (68) in Atlanta when he went 34-24-9. Also, with the exception of 2007-08, Atlanta has had more GF than Dallas as well. I’d put him above-average when/if consistently healthy.
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23rd (20th/21st by ESPN’s count) in the league in shots-against for a team that’s 26th (28th by ESPN) in shots-for. They also are not particularly prolific in the shot-blocking department this year.
I will remind you that it was only yesterday you were talking about how you thought Forbes was a bit too generous in lauding Don Waddell’s GM work in Atlanta, so Atlanta and Co. not caring for Lehtonen is not necessarily a condemnation of Lehtonen. Since the start of the 2006-2007 season, Lehtonen, Cam Ward, Luongo, Ryan Miller, Brodeur, and Vokoun are the only goalies to have at least 3 years in the top 9 in even-strength SV%. And part of the reason Lehtonen didn’t accomplish it in all 4 of those seasons was because of his injury last year.
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
Co-Manager at Behind the Net
by Bettman's Nightmare on Dec 28, 2010 2:37 PM EST up reply actions
My knock on Waddell is that he had a top pick…And he picked Lehtonen. No inconsistency here. Lehtonen is getting lucky.
Yeah, but who did he pass up? The next picks were Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Whitney, Upshall, Lupul, Bouchard, Taticek, Nystrom, Ballard, Eminger…you could maybe give him a hard time about passing up Semin (who was taken 13th), but the only other pick in the 1st round that touched Lehtonen in terms of talent was Cam Ward (25th overall). The 2002 draft picks were a motley crew; in fact, retrospectively, it was probably one of the most talent-starved groups of the 2000s (4 All-Stars, total).
Does he call it Luongo underwear?
Co-Manager at Behind the Net
by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 1, 2011 2:40 PM EST up reply actions
I think Dallas has seemed to be a bit lucky, while New Jersey has seemed a bit unlucky—but the evidence presented does not do any convincing whatsoever that this will change.
Teams often shoot more when they are trailing, as NJD has often been. The team on top will often allow them to press and take low-percentage shots, and then counterattack with a high-percentage, odd man rush chance. Shot% and save% cannot be taken so badly out of context. Yes, if a team sucks really badly and can’t figure out how to set up an offense, 5.7% can be sustained over a season.
In addition, goalies are generally only as good as their defense makes them look, plus or minus a little bit. With a bad defense, Brodeur might not expect to improve much on that .887, while Lehtonen’s .918 is good, but not spectacular.
Anyways, my $.02 is that NJ sucks this year, and will continue to do so. Dallas will possibly cool off and drop back down the ranks a bit, but there’s been no reason put forth yet as to why they would possibly fail to out-earn NJ in points over the remainder of the season.
I submit that the answer still seems straightforward.
Head up, stick down.
This makes my head hurt. You’re mixing up things that are true with things that aren’t true.
1. There is simply no way that a team can sustain a shooting percentage 4.5 standard deviations below the mean. The last four expansion teams were a combined 1.5 s.d below the mean. You can field a team of minor-leaguers who lose most of their games and they’ll still do significantly better than 5.7%.
2. The worst shots-on-goal PDO of the last 15 seasons is Atlanta in 1999-00 with 957. New Jersey’s at 935, again 4.5 standard deviations below the mean. Expansion teams averaged 983.
3. If Brodeur might not improve much on .887, then he’s below replacement and Johan Hedberg should be playing. You are telling us that New Jersey’s coaching staff is so bad that they can’t tell Brodeur is now worse than Michael Leighton.
Here’s what’s true: score effects do play a significant role in shot totals and a small role in shooting percentage. But they don’t make up for an 8.4 shot swing and what would be by far the lowest team shooting percentage since the league started counting shots.
What’s not true: SHOT QUALITY.
But I do like how you took score effects, which people have done a lot of work on, added ‘shot quality’ to it simply because you believe that it exists, and completely ignored shot differential. I’d pull a muscle contorting myself like that.
I like how you saw what I did there. I was afraid no one would :)
I don’t really think a team can shoot 5.7% over a season…but before this season, I didn’t think a team could shoot 5.7% through 35 games either. I don’t think shot diff. is as important as you feel it is, but I will concede it’s of at least some importance.
I would like to answer one thing. I suspect Brodeur may not be much better than .887 (looks like .884 now) with such a terrible defense. But I wouldn’t like the responsibility of naming a goaltender who could do better in his place. Vokoun or Luongo I would take, but few others. As for the coaching staff being terrible…well, clearly, someone along the line is terrible, though I am not sure who.
Bottom line: I will concede that NJD is doing worse than stats say they should, and DAL better. But I don’t think it’ll change to the extent of NJD gaining more points than DAL over the remainder of the season.
Head up, stick down.
by Smashvillain on Dec 28, 2010 1:16 PM EST up reply actions
I would like to answer one thing. I suspect Brodeur may not be much better than .887 (looks like .884 now) with such a terrible defense. But I wouldn’t like the responsibility of naming a goaltender who could do better in his place. Vokoun or Luongo I would take, but few others. As for the coaching staff being terrible…well, clearly, someone along the line is terrible, though I am not sure who.
If you struggle to name a goaltender who would do better, it would belie that the issue is more with the defensive play (more accurate since the issues have as much to do with the backchecking forwards as it does with the blueliners), correct?
As far as the coaching staff, well, the head coach was clearly out of his depth; MacLean was canned but his assistants remain.
To add my two cents, by anecdote, Brodeur and Hedberg have been left out to dry repeatedly this season. It’s not even a talent issue, just a lack of fundamentals. Backcheckers not picking up men, defenders not communicating with each other, and the coup de grace: the Devils turning the puck over in terrible times. The first goal allowed in their last two games came because a forward decided to pass across the slot with the other team lurking – leading to a picked off pass and the opposition given a fantastic scoring chance with no one bothering him. Two perfect examples why “throw it up the boards” is drilled into player’s heads over and over. But that’s anecdote, which is littered with confirmation bias and such. A review of all goals against would do a little better than reveal which ones have been largely the goaltender’s fault and which ones have been not.
That all said, I fully agree with Gabe but can only add the sad caveat that luck doesn’t have an expiration date.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
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by John Fischer on Dec 28, 2010 1:27 PM EST up reply actions
Yes, I would agree with all of that.
I don’t really watch a lot of NJ games, but what I’ve seen has made me think that there’s either not a clear system, or the players aren’t buying into it. Especially the defensive play perhaps, but all of it to some extent.
Head up, stick down.
by Smashvillain on Dec 28, 2010 1:42 PM EST up reply actions
Hedberg has been 0.014 better.
In 15 games. That’s not a huge difference, I know, but its significant. How much is the D? I don’t know. Maybe looking at shot location against would clear that up but I still think Marty has not been the Marty of old. He may start playing like the Marty of old and he may not. That’s the thing with older players. You can’t tell a slump from being over the hill.
A couple weeks ago, I wrote up a shot location breakdown for the Devils and the teams against. For shots around the net, the Devils were 16.5% (30 goals on 182 shots). Opponents shot 21.5% (46 of 214). Opponents were very consistent a little further away (between the circles and the closer half of the circles) at 7.5%.
The Devils overall do shoot a little further away than their opponents.
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by Matthew Ventolo on Dec 28, 2010 7:49 PM EST up reply actions
New Jersey is the better team
Even without Parise.
Of course, if Brodeur’s elbow is that bad, and they have to play Hedberg – possibly the league’s consistently worst goalie now that Toskala is gone – then I might give the nod to Dallas. Either way, they’re pretty close in actual team ability.
Open question: Were Volchenkov and Tallinder being carried last year (by Phillips and Myers respectively)?
I always thought Phillips was the better of the pair when he and Volchenkov played together. Volchenkov tended to play more conservatively. He basically stayed in front of the net and simply tried to keep the puck and the man from getting through. He did that very well, but it was a limited role. Phillips did more in terms of regaining possession, both in breaking up attacks off the rush and breaking up plays in the corners and retrieving the puck. He also took the lead in moving the puck out of the zone.
I don’t know if you’d say Philips “carried” him – Volchenkov played his role well, and Phillips has struggled at times without him this year. (Phillips has played mostly with Karlsson or Gonchar, so it’s a pretty huge adjustment from playing with Volchenkov). But if Volchenkov is struggling without Phillips, I’m not surprised, especially if he doesn’t have a partner who can move the puck out of his own end effectively.
Open question: Were Volchenkov and Tallinder being carried last year (by Phillips and Myers respectively)?
I don’t know, but this is sort of relevant: Volchenkov has been playing largely with a rookie or an inexperienced player on the third pairing – presumably so the Devils don’t end up having one pairing that is so weak due to youth. So he’s been sandbagged with worst minutes and having to carry someone this season. I’d love to see him get more minutes, but that would require a vet to replace a young defenseman or a young defenseman capable of playing without needing a veteran alongside him.
Tallinder’s been playing with Colin White after bouncing about with various partners, so at least he’s with a decent enough defenseman and has been playing tough minutes.
Devils in my heart! Devils in my mind! Devils in my eyes! Devils until I die!
In Lou We Trust - The New Jersey Devils SBN Blog
by John Fischer on Dec 28, 2010 11:44 PM EST up reply actions
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