Fall into the Gap: Fantasy Hockey Versus GVT, Goaltenders

Goalies are a different bird, and the fantasy and GVT rankings are no exception.  Overall, this is a little bit different analysis because we're working with a much smaller number of player; this is especially true because I still wanted to cut out anybody that played fewer than 25 games (to get funky numbers out).  But even with the 39 remaining goalies, I was still finding players being ranked significantly higher in fantasy than GVT.

As I've also done here and here with forwards and defensemen, we're looking at the divergence between popular views of valuable players (via fantasy hockey) versus a stats-oriented look at valuable players (via GVT).

To a degree, of course, it comes down to what's being counted.  Yahoo's standard scoring for goalies takes wins and shutouts as positive categories, and save percentage and GAA as comparative ratios.  For an explanation of goaltending GVT, go here.  With wins as one of only four categories (and really, three categories as shutouts are always pretty fluky), they have increased importance in Yahoo rankings.

Let's take a look at 2009-10:

Largest Gap, GVT Higher Than Yahoo, Top 10

Carey Price  20 GVT Rank | 30 Yahoo Rank | -10 Difference

Jonas Hiller  11 | 19 | -8

Antero Niittymaki  21 | 29 | -8

Cam Ward  19 | 25 | -6

Dwayne Roloson  28 | 34 | -6

Chris Mason  12 | 17 | -5

Marty Turco  15 | 20 | -5

Ondrej Pavelec  31 | 36 | -5

Henrik Lundqvist  3 | 7 | -4

Johan Hedberg 14 | 18 | -4


Largest Gap, Yahoo Higher Than GVT, Top 10

Cristobal Huet  37 GVT Rank | 21 Yahoo Rank | 16 Difference

Brian Elliott  22 | 14 | 8

Antti Niemi  17 | 9 | 8

Martin Brodeur 10 | 2 | 8

Jonathan Quick  23 | 16 | 7

Pekka Rinne  16 | 12 | 4

Tim Thomas  18 | 15 | 3

Semyon Varlamov  25 | 22 | 3

Jose Theodore  26 | 23 | 3

Mathieu Garon  30 | 27 | 3

As per usual last year, Carey Price gets targeted for under-performing when he really shuffles between league-average and pretty good, and I can think of at least one guy who likes seeing Brodeur on the bottom list.  A little surprised to see Lundqvist on the top list, but I think that's the low shutout total last year speaking more than anything.

Thanks to Behind the Net, data version, for the numbers, as well as Tom Awad.

If you want to know where any other individual player fell, let me know in the comments and I'll look it up.

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