Bobtownphilly: Bringin' it Up to Ad Nauseum
Note: For those that already voted, I restructured the poll and tossed the previous poll, as I realized that 90.5% to 92.5% was going to be too broad of a category. It was a tyrannical thing to do, and I apologize. If you still trust me, please vote again, and I promise I won't scrap this one. --- Nov. 13th ~2pm
I'll acknowledge right off the bat that I have a certain set of biases; I was a sceptic of Sergei Bobrovsky early on, more for lack of seeking information about him than anything. I think it's fair to act that way, particularly when someone plays at the level he has without any prior NHL experience. It's also fair to act that way because I'm a Rangers fan, which is also a part of my bias.
Now, as Michael Leighton nears his return, there's definitely an element of "what do we do now?" in Philly. Let me be one to say, having looked at his history, that it would be a travesty to not give this kid a shot as (at least) the 60 in a 60-40 timeshare this year.
Bobrovsky was viewed as somewhat of an unknown coming out of Russia, but that's as much of a testament to our view of the KHL as it is of his play. It's possibly more instructive to adopt a longer lens; over the last two years, Bobrovsky has been one of the best goalies in the KHL despite playing on one of its worst teams. His team, Metallurg Novokuznetsk, was 4th to last and last place in the first two years of the KHL, respectively, with Bobrovsky playing approximately half of their games. While his record reflected the atrocious performance of the team (12-36-3), he amassed a save percentage of 92.3%,* and helped his team allow the 12th and 11th (tied) fewest goals in those two seasons. His goaltender teammates had a save percentage of 91% over that same time. That 92.3% easily placed him in the top 10 those two years, despite being one of the league's younger goalies playing on one of the worst teams (poor man's Vokoun?).
These numbers weren't against soft opponents, either. Metallurg Novokuznetsk shares the Chernyshev Division with some of the best offensive players in the KHL, including Jaromir Jagr, Alexander Radulov, Lukas Kaspar, and Patrick Thoresen. It would be unfair to propose that Bobrovsky hasn't seen nearly-NHL level competition.
Post-Bobrovsky Metallurg Novokuznetsk continues to perform at the bottom of the KHL, but this year their bottom has fallen out. On a similar team (personnel-wise), MN's goaltending is now stopping shots at 89.8%. Not only are they dead-last in their conference; at 19 points in 25 games, they are 3 points below the next-poorest team, who has only played 21 games.
There's going to be a sense that Michael Leighton is owed something for his contributions to the Flyers' Cup run, and there's something to be said for that. But Bobrovsky has made it over a month playing solid hockey, and two years of solid hockey before that; even personality-wise he seems to be meeting the challenges of the NHL. It's early, yes, but even I have to admit that the Flyers may have something. Hopefully they don't let it slip.**
* Can't find any even-strength save percentage from the KHL; anybody run into it somewhere?
**Or maybe, secretly, I want it to slip. Haha.
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The other thing we don’t know about is his stamina… he’s only played 35, 32 & 24 games over the past three seasons in the KHL/RSL. So is he going to be able to keep this up as we get into the second half of the season? Two questions really… how will his game hold up & will his body hold up if he’s asked to play 55+ games.
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by Cam Collingwood on Nov 13, 2010 12:02 PM EST reply actions
There were 6 U20 games that first RSL year as well, plus some games in the Russian minors (don’t know how many). But yeah, last two years are 35 and 32 of a 56 game schedule… no international appearances at all.
I don’t know if I’d ask him to push to far above 55 games. But they should definitely be willing to try him for in that range based on his performance so far, and his strong showing in the KHL the past two years.
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by Bruce Peter on Nov 13, 2010 12:24 PM EST up reply actions
It’s always tough to gauge how goalies are going to respond to workload…I sometimes try looking at how they perform if they’ve had to handle a string of games in a row (in Bobrovsky’s case, he’s played the last 8). Does he tail off? Or does he play fairly consistent across those games? If you see consistency, you’re probably looking at a well-synced defense and goaltender (they can be synced in poor performance as well as good). If the numbers are jumping around (say, 6 goals given up here, one the next night, then 4, and so on), you either have a good goalie bailing out poor defense or a good defense in front of a poor goalie.
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 13, 2010 1:17 PM EST up reply actions
Beginning to think that 90.5-92.5 was a little too broad of a brushstroke…
Bettman's Nightmare: Hypothesizing that Cooper-alls were the Jorts of the 80s.
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
You can also catch my work occasionally at www.behindthenethockey.com
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 13, 2010 1:30 PM EST reply actions
haha, I was thinking the same thing.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 13, 2010 2:25 PM EST up reply actions
Adjusted the poll.
Bettman's Nightmare: Hypothesizing that Cooper-alls were the Jorts of the 80s.
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
You can also catch my work occasionally at www.behindthenethockey.com
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 13, 2010 3:14 PM EST up reply actions
By the way, while I don’t disagree with you on Leighton, my question is: Why does he deserve more than a guaranteed two-year NHL contract worth $1.5 million?
I don’t think he even deserved that, so why does he deserve more?
(Not meant to be antagonistic to you, but more like anybody who says Leighton is the starter still)
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 13, 2010 2:26 PM EST reply actions
I think he deserves more because if he hadn’t been injured, he would have had a chance to prove whether the playoff performance was a mirage or closer to his true talent. Also, I don’t think he’s as bad as Boucher when it comes to giving Bobrovsky a break, and Bob’s going to need a break at some point. Probably most important of all, Leighton is good enough to earn a shot to appeal to other teams, which might cause you to carry 3 goalies. You might have to do that anyway, as it appears that Leighton has been a little slow to get back to full strength.
Bettman's Nightmare: Hypothesizing that Cooper-alls were the Jorts of the 80s.
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
You can also catch my work occasionally at www.behindthenethockey.com
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 13, 2010 2:57 PM EST up reply actions
I’ve advocated carrying three starters for at least a couple of weeks because of the nature of his injury. That isn’t necessarily a popular opinion, but when the choice is between waiving Walker or sending Bobrovsky down, I’d rather waive Walker.
I understand the “if he didn’t get injured” argument, but like you said, I think he needs to earn a spot with other teams. The problem is that this situation could turn ugly, fast. If Boucher/Leighton get moved to allow Bobrovsky to stay, then one of them gets hurt, Johan Backlund has to go through re-entry waivers. Or the Flyers will be left with Brian Stewart. So, this could quickly go from four capable NHL backups to one healthy and one injured very quickly.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 14, 2010 5:13 PM EST up reply actions
To be honest, what happened to you guys last year was a pretty incredible situation, and I don’t fault you for trying to put in place contingency plans. But at a certain point, you just have to roll with your best goalie and have Boucher as your backup. There are actually few teams in the NHL that would have been able to handle it any better than the Flyers did last year, so I think that is an indicator of the likelihood of it happening again.
If it’s any comfort, given Backlund’s age and performance to date he’d probably get through re-entry.
Bettman's Nightmare: Hypothesizing that Cooper-alls were the Jorts of the 80s.
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
You can also catch my work occasionally at www.behindthenethockey.com
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 14, 2010 8:07 PM EST up reply actions
I’d love to get rid of Leighton. And I’d like to think that Backlund gets through, which I think he will after his abysmal numbers so far this year. The problem is that Atlanta GM Dudley was in Glens Falls the other week, for no reason. Backlund is a lot better than people realize just given his numbers, but I still don’t think he’d get claimed. Just that I worry about the possibility.
But you’re right: If the unthinkable happened (Leighton is traded, Backlund is claimed, Bobrovsky gets hurt), I wouldn’t be furious if the Flyers had to scramble and get Nic Riopel an NHL contract to backup Brian Boucher.
Man-crushin' on Boucher since 1999
Broad Street Hockey - Makin' it look mean since 1967.
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by Geoff Detweiler on Nov 16, 2010 9:42 AM EST up reply actions
Okay, I overhauled the poll, hope everyone doesn’t hate me for it.
Bettman's Nightmare: Hypothesizing that Cooper-alls were the Jorts of the 80s.
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
You can also catch my work occasionally at www.behindthenethockey.com
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 13, 2010 3:14 PM EST reply actions
Thanks for writing this
At this rate, Lavy is going to have him play 55+ games in a row, so I assume his his SV% will average out due to fatigue.
Seriously though, when Leights comes back it will be interesting to see how the time is split. I voted for 55+ games mainly because I don’t think Leighton’s back will be 100% at any time this season.
Mourning Gagne forever.
It’s so hard to tell which goalies will fatigue, but on a team with a solid defense I think you can reduce the workload experienced by your goalie in a game. That being said, the second hardest thing about fatigue is that it can be harder to tell if a player is playing worse because of fatigue or because the chickens are finally coming home to roost (I figured someone with the tag “ToddtheFox” would appreciate that phrase).
Bettman's Nightmare: Hypothesizing that Cooper-alls were the Jorts of the 80s.
http://bettmansnightmare.blogspot.com/
You can also catch my work occasionally at www.behindthenethockey.com
by Bettman's Nightmare on Nov 13, 2010 4:37 PM EST up reply actions
Yet another stellar performance. He doesn’t seem to be fatigued in the least. I hope the Flyers continue to ride the hot hand tomorrow.
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by TheBrownieBomber on Nov 15, 2010 11:28 PM EST reply actions

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