How much do UFAs and RFAs cost per win?

I was puzzling over this a bit at Tyler Dellow's blog, and I don't think I've seen the answer anywhere.  Feel free to chime in if you have a different calculation.  Here's the process I followed: for every RFA and UFA who signed in the 2009 off-season, I added up their 2009-10 salaries and their projected win values from Tom Awad's VUKOTA projections.  I then subtracted the league minimum salary from each player's total salary (VUKOTA is already with respect to replacement value) to determine the marginal cost per marginal win. 

The results:

 

# Salary Marg. Sal. Wins $M/Win
RFA 70 89.9 54.9 41.3 1.33
UFA 106 216.9 163.9 73.4 2.23
Total 176 306.8 218.8 114.7 1.91

 

So an RFA takes a 40% discount relative to a UFA.  I think that's actually very close to the discount that baseball players take in their arbitration years.

At any rate, I'm interested in hearing differing takes on this question.

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