The NHL's Best (Even-Strength) Shooters, 2005-09
I put together a stats sheet at the beginning of the year looking at individual player shooting. I estimated the expected number of goals that each player should have scored each year based on the locations of the shots he took - because rebounds are high-percentage shots, I only looked at initial shots to assess pure shooting. Here's the sum of goal scoring relative to expectations over the last four seasons:
| Player | Extra Goals |
| Ilya Kovalchuk | 51.5 |
| Nathan Horton | 32.6 |
| Marian Gaborik | 32.5 |
| Dany Heatley | 32.4 |
| Jarome Iginla | 29.0 |
| Daniel Alfredsson | 28.6 |
| Alexander Ovechkin | 27.2 |
| Alex Tanguay | 25.9 |
| Rick Nash | 23.8 |
| Jason Spezza | 23.6 |
| Brad Boyes | 20.5 |
| Alexander Semin | 19.4 |
| Sidney Crosby | 18.9 |
| Martin Havlat | 18.7 |
| Marian Hossa | 18.1 |
Most of these players are "known good snipers," other than Boyes and Horton, who play in minor markets and haven't had many opportunities to show off in the playoffs, and Crosby, who is so good at everything else that he must be a bad goal-scorer! Kovalchuk's lead over 2nd-place Horton is amazing - he's almost as good a shooter as Tanguay (who led the 2000s in shooting percentage) and he is 11th overall in total even-strength shots since the lockout.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, the league's worst shooter - among frequent shooters - is Tyler Arnason at 20 goals below average. That goes a long way to explain Arnason spending this season in the AHL and the KHL.
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Arny’s ice-precense makes him the best shooter EVER.
If you don’t believe it, look into his uncaring eyes of doom:

by Tommelot on Jan 14, 2010 10:10 AM EST reply actions 1 recs
How did you off-set the loss of goal-scoring from removing rebound shots?
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by Bettman's Nightmare on Jan 14, 2010 11:42 AM EST reply actions
Nice article Gabe! Two quick questions:
1. How much time did there need to be between shots for it to be considered a non-rebound?
2. What is the “baseline” that was used (i.e. what numbers would constitute 0 “extra goals”) and is this supposed to indicate average performance or replacement level performance?
Thanks!
Scott -
I used four seconds. Two or three are also valid and give the same general results.
The data is relative to average. I didn’t want to get into it with the folks who don’t think replacement exists.
Cool. Thanks Gabe. If I may, are you using a shot location matrix with an x-y axis or simply shot distance? Also, do you know what the average shooting percentage is for EV non-rebound shots as a whole? That would be interesting. Finally, Ilya Kovalchuk is pretty darn good! That’s just a huge gap. If they had him with a couple of guys who consistently had the puck in the OZ…
by Scott Reynolds on Jan 15, 2010 12:50 PM EST up reply actions

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