Eastern Conference Death Watch, Week 12

It's time for my weekly installment looking at the downward spiral of bad Eastern Conference teams:

 

Team GP W L T BWL W% GD PW%
ott 35 13 13 9 5-4 500 -2 490
atl 34 13 13 8 5-3 500 6 529
bos 34 10 11 13 6-7 485 2 512
nyr 35 14 16 5 2-3 471 -4 479
tor 36 12 16 8 1-7 444 -17 424
tam 35 9 14 12 3-9 429 -14 424
phi 34 12 17 5 3-2 426 -6 468
fla 37 9 15 13 6-7 419 -13 440
nyi 36 8 16 12 5-7 389 -26 367
mon 37 8 18 11 8-3 365 -16 415
car 35 6 20 9 3-6 300 -37 327

 

Most of the chart statistics are self-explanatory.  "BWL" is "Bettman Wins and Losses" - a team's record after regulation.  The 'B' can stand for something else if you want.  "PW%" is a team's Pythagorean Winning Percentage, based on goals for and goals against.

All but five teams in the East are at serious risk of missing the playoffs - continued play at their current levels, combined with bad second half luck in OT and the SO could put any of them on the golf course in April.  There are no longer any significant over-achievers in this group - Montreal's regulation record trails expectations by the largest amount, while Philadelphia is a close second.  We'll see what impact Andrei Markov's return has on a lackluster team: even at three wins per season, the Habs wouldn't have been much better than 9-16-12 had Markov not been injured.  If we regress their Pythagorean Winning Percentage 35% to the mean, assume .500 play in OT and the SO, and give them +2 wins for getting Markov back, they're still looking at 88 points on the season.  Ottawa, Boston and Atlanta figure to be much better teams with a much higher likelihood of making the playoffs.

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