How does playing in the Olympics affect Individual Performance?

by Hawerchuk on Dec 17, 2009 10:34 AM EST in Zzz...2010 Olympics

We now have three different Olympics to look at, and I wondered if there were any perceptible differences in player performance based on whether they played in the tournament that year or not. Let's look first at team winning percentage for players who played in the games in the years before and after the games:

W%	1998	2002	2006
Oly-1	524	530
Oly	511	537	536
Oly+1	527	528	513

The 2006 Olympics don't have a previous season due to the 2004-05 lockout (thanks, Gary.) There's no solid pattern here. What if we compare winning percentage before and after the Olympic break?

1st/2nd	1998	2002	2006
Oly-1	-14	-7
Oly	8	-13	-24
Oly+1	-3	23	46

Again, nothing here. Clearly there is no impact at the team level. What about at the player level?

Games Played:

GP	1998	2002	2006
Oly-1	70	69
Oly	72	73	71
Oly+1	69	68	70

Players play a slightly-higher number of games in the Olympic years. But this is selection bias - a player won't make the team if he's injured. What about scoring?

Pts/82	1998	2002	2006
Oly-1	55	57
Oly	50	51	67
Oly+1	54	49	57

Still nothing to hang our hats on. How about the 1st/2nd half difference in points-per-82 games?

1st/2nd	1998	2002	2006
Oly-1	-1.8	1.8
Oly	-0.5	-0.1	-0.9
Oly+1	-0.1	-2.3	1.0

Again, nothing. We see the same lack of trend year-over-year in +/-, TOI, shooting percentage. I did find one stat where players got worse in the second half of the Olympic season:

Shot% 1st/2nd	1998	2002	2006
Oly-1	0.6	0.6
Oly	-0.6	-0.2	-0.9
Oly+1	0.2	0.0	0.1

I would still argue that this means nothing. I essentially have data with no trends in it, but the noise in my observations is large enough that some statistic will consistently point in the right direction without actually meaning anything. If participating in the Olympics has a measurable impact on player performance, I can't see it.

I'll take a look at the goalies next time...

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I think there would be a trend for Goalies

I need a new sig, since i think I cursed ORLY by promoting him.

by Drakenlot on Dec 17, 2009 4:34 PM EST reply actions

I don’t disagree with your conclusions but I do think you need to look at teams based on the # of Olympic participants they had. I’ve done some work on this and found that of 24 teams (3 Olympic seasons) that sent 6 or more players, only 3 regained their standings pts per game pace when play resumed and 19 declined. Of 24 teams that sent 3 or less, 12 improved their pace and 8 declined, post-Olympics. There’s chart with some of the highlights here

The above had no effect on the final standings, though, it takes an earthquake or a complete meltdown to do that, it seems.

There are a couple of interesting stories among the goalies, Irbe and Kolzig both got hot post their Olympic participation and led their teams to Cup finals. Brodeur has increased his save pct post-Olympics in both years he’s been on Team Canada.

by Big Picture Guy on Dec 17, 2009 5:24 PM EST reply actions