Just a Bit More Perspective on Winning and Losing Streaks

by Hawerchuk on Oct 30, 2009 8:00 AM EDT in Analysis

Since the NHL expanded to 12 teams in 1967-68, thirty-one franchises have played 908 total seasons. If you had to guess, what percentage of those seasons do you think included a 10-game stretch like the Leafs just had, with only one win in regulation? Would you believe 541, or 60%? And how many teams had a 13-game stretch, like the Colorado Avalanche, where they only lost one game or less in regulation? Still a very high 32%. And the number of seasons in which a team did both?! 10.5%.

That seems amazing to me - 1 out of every 10 teams has a stretch that's as bad as the Leafs just had and as good as the Avs just had - in the same season! Even more amazing - six of the last sixteen Stanley Cup winners had both stretches during their championship season.

After the jump, the number of seasons in which each team lost just once in 13 games or won just once in 10 games...

Here are the number of seasons each NHL franchise had a 10-game stretch with one win or less since 1967-68:

Team	Bad Seasons	Total Seasons	Pct
CGS	10	11	91
ATL	8	9	89
LAK	36	41	88
CBJ	7	8	88
TBL	14	16	88
PHX	23	29	79
VAN	30	38	79
SJS	13	17	76
MIN	6	8	75
ANA	11	15	73
FLA	11	15	73
PIT	29	41	71
NJD	24	34	71
WSH	23	34	68
CAR	19	29	66
TOR	25	41	61
DAL	24	41	59
NYR	24	41	59
EDM	16	29	55
CHI	22	41	54
DET	22	41	54
CGY	19	36	53
NYI	19	36	53
PHI	21	41	51
STL	21	41	51
NSH	5	10	50
OTT	8	16	50
COL	11	29	38
BUF	14	38	37
BOS	14	41	34
MTL	12	41	29

The Leafs are right in the middle in terms of fan suffering. Folding the California Golden Seals/Cleveland Barons was probably a good idea.

And on the positive side:

Team	Good Seasons	Total Seasons	Pct
MTL	25	41	61
OTT	9	16	56
PHI	22	41	54
BOS	20	41	49
EDM	14	29	48
CGY	17	36	47
BUF	16	38	42
NYR	17	41	41
DET	17	41	41
COL	12	29	41
CHI	14	41	34
NJD	11	34	32
WSH	10	34	29
NYI	10	36	28
PIT	11	41	27
STL	11	41	27
DAL	10	41	24
SJS	4	17	24
PHX	6	29	21
ANA	3	15	20
FLA	3	15	20
TBL	3	16	19
LAK	7	41	17
TOR	7	41	17
VAN	6	38	16
MIN	1	8	13
CAR	3	29	10
NSH	1	10	10
CGS	0	11	0
ATL	0	9	0
CBJ	0	8	0

It certainly has been nice to be a Montreal Canadiens fan these last 41 years...

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Comments

Hey Gabe, it would be interesting to compare those numbers with the numbers we have in a 30 team league only. Are you able to look at just the period from 2000-2001 to present? I suspect these streaks will be less common over that time.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 30, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions

Losing streaks are more common now – 67% of teams have had one since 2000-01. Winning streaks are slightly more common – 38% since 2000-01.

by Hawerchuk on Oct 30, 2009 11:26 AM EDT up reply actions

Wow. I would have thought that the parity in the league would’ve resulted in fewer streaks but I guess not. Huh.

by Scott Reynolds on Oct 30, 2009 10:22 PM EDT up reply actions

Don't forget the Bettman point skews things

… including how one even counts wins and losses. A streak like 1-5-4 is bad but not disastrous; and a string like 8-1-4 looks better than it really is.

Writer for The Copper & Blue

by Bruce McCurdy on Nov 2, 2009 1:18 AM EST up reply actions

Wow

I’m sure it’s just a coincidence that the teams with fanbase problems: ATL, Tampa, Phoenix, Columbus, LA kings and the Panthers, are part of the losing-est franchise list.

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by Jibblescribbits on Oct 30, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions

All is forgiven in Vancouver and San Jose though!

by Hawerchuk on Oct 30, 2009 12:33 PM EDT up reply actions

This actually isn't as surprisng as you'd think

There’s a 1985 paper by Gilovich, Valone, and Tversky (here) on the “hot hand” in basketball, which showed that, contrary to popular belief, a basketball player who’s made shots recently is no more likely to hit their next one than their long run average would indicate. So why do so many people insist that there really is such a thing as the hot hand when there isn’t, with even pros trying to get the ball to the guy who made his shots recently?

Well they do some extra experiments, and it turns out that humans seem wired to think that streaks will be more rare than they actually are. They show people the result of digital coin flips, which they manipulate to make streakier or less streaky, and ask people to pick out the one that shows true randomness… and the one people pick is pretty reliably one that they forced to alternate heads and tails more than they really do. So when we see REAL streams of random events, we’re surprised at how common long streaks are, and start inventing reasons for them.

This means that hockey teams will regularly come up with longer strings of wins and losses than most of us would expect, that we will call shooters “hot” or “cold” when they are being perfectly consistent in their odds of making each shot, and so on.

Corollary: “Momentum” is mostly also bunk, but it doesn’t stop our perceptual system reading it in.

and the Mustache of Truculence (formerly Canada4Mizzou)

by Wan Ihite on Nov 1, 2009 1:32 AM EDT reply actions