Shooting Percentage by Game State

Yesterday, I discussed how expected shooting percentage (aka shot quality) varies when teams have the lead. Today I want to look at how even-strength shooting characteristics vary both when teams are leading and trailing. First, raw shot totals since the lockout:

Margin Leading Trailing Trail/Lead
1 51080 58110 +13.8%
2 21950 26980 +22.9%
3 8914 11307 +26.8%

We can see that the further a team gets behind, the more they out-shoot their opponents. This shouldn't be surprising - there's limited downside to giving up an additional goal when you're already down, so you can go all out on the attack. A team with the lead is content to sit on it.

Actual shooting percentage:

Shot % Actual Relative to Tied
+3 7.07 +28.2%
+2 7.80 +41.4%
+1 6.71 +21.8%
Tied 5.51
-1 6.11 +10.9%
-2 6.22 +12.9%
-3 6.33 +14.9%

This version of shooting percentage includes goals, shots on goal and missed shots. We can see that shooting percentage increases as teams have bigger and bigger leads, but doesn't change much as they fall further behind - no amount of offensive pressing can really generate that many more scoring chances.

In terms of shot quality, we see roughly the same effect - expected shooting percentage increases as a team gets in the lead, but stays essentially constant as it falls further behind:

Expected Shot % Expected Relative to Tied
+3 6.25 +13.3%
+2 6.17 +12.0%
+1 6.08 +10.2%
Tied 5.84
-1 5.96 +8.2%
-2 5.97 +8.3%
-3 5.95 +7.9%

After a lot of database machinations, I'm convinced I have these numbers right. If anyone has any conflicting data, please let me know!

X
Log In Sign Up

forgot?
Log In Sign Up

Forgot password?

We'll email you a reset link.

If you signed up using a 3rd party account like Facebook or Twitter, please login with it instead.

Forgot password?

Try another email?

Almost done,

By becoming a registered user, you are also agreeing to our Terms and confirming that you have read our Privacy Policy.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Join Arctic Ice Hockey

You must be a member of Arctic Ice Hockey to participate.

We have our own Community Guidelines at Arctic Ice Hockey. You should read them.

Spinner.vc97ec6e

Authenticating

Great!

Choose an available username to complete sign up.

In order to provide our users with a better overall experience, we ask for more information from Facebook when using it to login so that we can learn more about our audience and provide you with the best possible experience. We do not store specific user data and the sharing of it is not required to login with Facebook.

tracking_pixel_9355_tracker